A strategy that gives you a better chance of winning than someone whose gambling
An edge is a predictable / repeatable system that provides the trader with a better than (50/50) chance
Casinos don't make money by hoping players lose.
They design rules and limits that create an edge over time.
Think about your trading the same way.
Don't hope you make money.
Create rules and limits that provide you with positive expectancy over a large sample size of trades.
But they won’t raise rates
Option 1: they keep rates stable until 2027 (maximum 50 basis points cut)
Option 2: They actually raise rates and we see equity markets, risk assets, and basically every US derivative crash
I went through Donald Trump's latest financial disclosures and pulled the 10 most interesting trades from the May activity.
Some of these names will surprise you: