How to identify key resistance.
📉 On $TLRY, resistance is not a random horizontal line — it is structurally justified.
🔍 Step-by-step logic:
→ Price previously broke down from an ascending structure, confirming a shift to a bearish market character
→ Volume behavior matters: the up-bar formed on low volume (lack of demand), while subsequent selling expanded — a sign of effective supply
📌 Result:
The former support zone naturally transforms into key resistance — this is where sellers regain control and buyers hesitate.
🧠 Lesson:
Strong resistance is best identified where structure breaks + failed demand + volume confirmation align, not by arbitrary levels.
https://t.co/j8V90KSssp
#TLRY #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #Resistance #MarketStructure #PriceAction
$ORCL technical view
📉 Oracle shares fell below $180 for the first time since mid-June.
The chances of returning to the previously formed ascending channel look increasingly slim.
📊 However, technical analysis highlights 4 reasons why a rebound may follow:
1️⃣ Price has fully filled the mid-June bullish gap
2️⃣ ORCL is down ~50% from the all-time high set in early September — a level that may attract risk-tolerant dip buyers
3️⃣ Price is trading near the lower boundary of a descending channel framing the entire decline
4️⃣ Yesterday’s volume spike may signal panic selling, which often precedes short-term recoveries
➕ A potential 5th factor could be an oversold signal from momentum oscillators (e.g. RSI).
⚠️ That said, any recovery attempt may be capped by a key resistance zone (marked in blue), formed after a bearish gap above the $200 psychological level following earnings.
#ORCL #Oracle #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Earnings #Trading
@PeterLBrandt Because financial markets are distorted by the effects of compound growth, I use a log scale → price dynamics are normalized, and curved moves naturally straighten, making trends and channels more comparable across different price levels and time horizons.
BTC/USD volatility spike — technical context
📉 During yesterday’s US session BTC/USD showed extreme volatility:
• Bitcoin rose over +3%,
• then dropped more than −4% within hours.
💥 The move triggered liquidations on both sides. Across Binance and other exchanges, total liquidations reached ~$450M.
On the daily chart, BTC formed a pin bar with a long upper wick — a bearish signal.
📰 While the move lacked clear fundamental justification (aside from rising geopolitical rumors), technical analysis of the broader context provides important insight.
📊 Higher-timeframe view:
• BTC is trading near the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel, acting as support since mid-November
• At the rally peak, price made a false bullish breakout above $90K and above the Dec 15 high — a bearish Liquidity Grab
🔎 Conclusion:
• Smart Money may be increasing pressure on key support
• A bearish continuation within a descending channel remains a valid scenario, with the channel median already confirmed as resistance
🔗 Chart: https://t.co/W74EhqfFaH
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #SMC #PriceAction
BTC/USD volatility spike — technical context
📉 During yesterday’s US session BTC/USD showed extreme volatility:
• Bitcoin rose over +3%,
• then dropped more than −4% within hours.
💥 The move triggered liquidations on both sides. Across Binance and other exchanges, total liquidations reached ~$450M.
On the daily chart, BTC formed a pin bar with a long upper wick — a bearish signal.
📰 While the move lacked clear fundamental justification (aside from rising geopolitical rumors), technical analysis of the broader context provides important insight.
📊 Higher-timeframe view:
• BTC is trading near the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel, acting as support since mid-November
• At the rally peak, price made a false bullish breakout above $90K and above the Dec 15 high — a bearish Liquidity Grab
🔎 Conclusion:
• Smart Money may be increasing pressure on key support
• A bearish continuation within a descending channel remains a valid scenario, with the channel median already confirmed as resistance
🔗 Chart: https://t.co/W74EhqfFaH
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #SMC #PriceAction
$TSLA #TechnicalAnalysis
📅 Nov 12: I outlined an ascending channel and a key support zone at $360–400.
The prior high was capping bullish conviction → consolidation phase.
📉 Since then:
• Price broke below consolidation
• Found support near the lower channel boundary
• Resumed the uptrend
📊 Volume insight:
• Early December volumes were low → lack of sellers in uptrend.
• The move into the upper half of the channel came with a volume spike and a bullish gap → clear demand strength
🔍 What’s next:
• Former resistance at $465 may turn into support
• Current momentum opens the door for a $500 psychological test
#TSLA #Tesla #Stocks #Trading #PriceAction
DXY rebounds from a 2-month low
📅 One week ago I Updated the system of two trend channels
• Noted signs of supply-side dominance
• Outlined a scenario of price sliding toward the lower boundary of the blue channel as key support
📉 As expected:
• The Dollar Index fell to a 2-month low yesterday
• The decline was driven by weak US housing data — Housing Starts and Building Permits missed expectations, reinforcing the cooling-economy narrative
📈 Today:
• DXY jumps sharply amid GBP weakness
• UK CPI slowed to 3.2% vs 3.5% forecast, triggering pound selling and dollar demand
📊 Technical view:
• Signs of an aggressive bullish reversal from the lower boundary of the ascending channel
• The brief dip below the October low looks like a bear trap / Liquidity Grab (SMC)
• Momentum indicators (incl. RSI) show bullish divergence between lows A and B
🔎 Outlook:
• USD may regain attractiveness into year-end
• DXY could recover toward the median of the red channel, and potentially its upper boundary
#DXY #USD #Forex #Macro #TechnicalAnalysis #SMC #PriceAction
@GregaHorvatFX In tradingview, try "8 pair strength" indicator to find the relative performance for every major currency. You can find out "strong/weak" on different TF.
S&P 500 (4H) after Friday’s selloff: the quick recovery hints the dip was absorbed and sentiment is stabilizing.
Early December built a rising channel (measured risk-on). The Fed spike briefly pushed price outside both boundaries, but the key takeaway is constructive:
The pop toward ~6929 failed to hold, yet buyers defended Friday’s low (long lower wicks = demand stepping in).
The “megaphone” swing structure (A–F) looks more like a liquidity sweep that reset positioning than a true breakdown.
Base case: volatility cools from last week’s whipsaws, while the broader bias remains to the upside—a grind higher with pullbacks being bought.
https://t.co/pS84NF2dKf
#SPX #SP500 #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis
Ahead of this week’s BoJ decision, JPY is firmer on tighter-policy chatter (fundamentals in the background).
$USDJPY technicals (4H): Price is sliding back to the 155.00 pivot — a key support that held on the prior dip. Since October, action has been contained in a rising channel:
The channel midline capped price twice (bearish tell).
Price is now pressing the lower channel boundary, a logical demand zone.
Bear case: a clean break below the lower channel + 155.00 would likely flip that area into resistance and open room toward 150.00 support.
https://t.co/FB8c8yLJPD
#USDJPY #FX #TechnicalAnalysis
Cycle analysis suggests continued pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
According to the dominant cycles visible on the chart, the dollar may remain in a downward phase through the end of winter, with several synchronized cycles pointing to sustained weakness into late February–early March.
The projection line also indicates that any short-term rebounds are likely to be corrective, while the broader cyclical structure still favors a bearish trajectory.
If cycles play out as expected, DXY may struggle to regain upward momentum until spring.
#DXY #USD #DollarIndex #Cycles #CycleAnalysis #Forex #Macro #Trading
Netflix (NFLX) drops despite blockbuster news: an $82.7B deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery.
How might this affect the stock?
Technically, NFLX has been weak for weeks.
→ A bearish gap opened after October’s earnings
→ A brief bounce (arrow 1) stalled at the gap resistance
→ The mid-November stock split — usually bullish — was sold off (arrow 2)
→ The rising channel was expanded downward, reinforcing the red bearish trajectory
Now concerns about the mega-deal add pressure:
→ Dilution: new shares issued to finance the purchase reduce EPS
→ Debt burden: the $82.7B price tag worsens financial ratios
→ Antitrust risk: a combined Netflix + Warner controls nearly half of streaming; regulators (and even President Trump) signal problems ahead
Given these risks, NFLX may continue trading inside the descending channel, even though $100 could act as psychological support.
$NFLX #NFLX #Netflix #Stocks #FAANG #Streaming #MarketUpdate #PriceAction