Amy.Le

Why so serious 🧐

[Altcoin Daily @AltcoinDaily]

Be ready for BIG dips even in a bull market.

30%-40% dips are not uncommon.

Look how it popped back up👇

[Rekt Capital @rektcapital]

#BTC

When Could Bitcoin Peak In This Bull Market? Lengthening Cycles Beyond Old All Time Highs?

Bitcoin tends to perform a Bull Market Top 266-315 days after it breaks its old All Time High

Bitcoin broke its old All Time Highs last week

The next Bull Market Peak may thus occur in 266-315 days

That's very late November 2024 or very late January 2025

However, as Accelerated as this cycle may be...

It appears that the amount of days that Bitcoin spends beyond old All Time Highs is actually lengthening

In 2013, Bitcoin rallied for 268 days before topping out

In 2017, this figure rose to 280 days (an increase by 14 days)

In 2021, this figure rose to 315 days (an increase by 35 days compared to 2017)

Historically, the amount of days that Bitcoin has spent beyond old All Time Highs have increased by approximately 14 days to 35 days

So how much time could Bitcoin spend beyond old All Time Highs before performing its Bull Market Peak in this cycle?

If we add 14-35 days to the initial Bull Market Peak range of 266-315 days, that would bring the total to 280-350 days

This in turn could push the Bitcoin Bull Market Peak to mid-December 2024 or mid-February 2025

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

80% of profits are made in the last 20% of the cycle.

Learn how to recognize an alteason and make the most out of it.

What triggers an altseason is not the percentage return of $BTC but its wealth effect. And since September 2023, Bitcoin's market cap has grown by $941 billion.

Almost 1 trillion dollars.

• $1 trillion is roughly the size of the entire economy of Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, or Switzerland.
• $1 trillion is 2.89% of United States national debt.
• $1 trillion is 2.5% of the S&P500 total market cap.
• $1 trillion is bigger than almost all Sovereign Wealth Funds.

Given that most altcoins are relatively small in size, it will not take much of this wealth to significantly increase their price.

The whole altcoins market cap, excluding ETH and major stablecoins, is currently $588 billion.

So, when will this happen?

Probably, once $IBIT, $FBTC, $ARKB, and all other Bitcoin ETFs are at 100%+ from their launch price.

Rarely in the past tradFi investors had the opportunity to double their investment in a matter of a few months.

Bitcoin's big gains will boost their ego and confidence, pushing them to start exploring other coins. It's like making money in big companies and then taking a chance on smaller startups.

• Wealth Effect - As people experience gains in their wealth, they may feel more financially secure and confident. This increased sense of wealth can lead to a willingness to take on more risk and pursue higher returns.

• Overconfidence Bias - As investors experience success in one area of the market, they may become overconfident in their abilities to predict future market movements or identify lucrative investment opportunities.

• Recency Bias - If an investor has recently experienced significant gains, they may extrapolate this success to other areas of the market or investment opportunities without fully considering the inherent risks or differences in asset classes.

Whether it's the wealth effect, these biases, or all of them, we'll soon see a flywheel bigger than what we experienced in the previous cycles.

The percentage increase might be smaller this cycle, but the dollar scale is exponentially higher.

It took 57 days for the ETFs to be up 50% from launch. At $93,000, day-1 buyers will be up 100%.

At $72,900 and $97,100, the huge inflows between the 8th and 16th of February ($7.16 billion) will be up respectively 50% and 100%

At $85,700 and $114,600, those who entered between the 26th and 28th of February ($1.77 billion of inflows) will be up 50% and 100%.

It's good to keep them as a reference because this is what wealth effect is which leads to more risk taking.

What we need to keep an eye on are CEX inflows/outflows. Since 11 January, these were the inflows of the three most utilized CEXs:

• OKX - $1 billion of inflows
• Robinhood - $263 million of inflows
• Binance - $247 million of inflows

— Data from Defillama —

In the meantime, the cumulative inflow for ETFs reached $10+ billion.

It's clear that ETFs are the new preferred way to buy and hold $BTC.

On the other hand, no ETFs exist for altcoins (it can change). CEXs first and DeFi afterward are the only ways to get exposure to them.

CEXs inflows increasing = investors looking to buy altcoins.

Another way to look at it is by comparing the growth of stablecoins market cap and TOTAL2.

April 2021 - April 2022

• Stablecoins Market Cap: +$125 billion
• TOTAL2 Market Cap: +$430 billion

October 2023 - March 2024

• Stablecoins Market Cap: +$21 billion
• TOTAL2 Market Cap: +$707 billion

Money isn't entering the market as in the previous years.

Is this cycle different?

No. Simply, there is a step more to enter the market.

We passed from

CEXs → DEXs

to

ETFs → CEXs → DEXs

But, this additional step will push into CEXs hundreds of billions of inflows.

It only requires some patience.

Where are we heading?

If we have the same patterns as the previous cycle, we'll see a ~38% dominance for alts (excluding BTC - ETH - USDT - USDC - DAI) at the top.

With an overall $7.8 trillion crypto market cap, the market cap for alts would be around $2.96 trillion.

A 5.1x from where we stand right now.

The final stages will come when flows into CEXs/DeFi are at par or even higher than ETF ones.

'Impatience with actions, patience with results'
- Naval.

[Rekt Capital @rektcapital]

#BTC

If history repeats...

Next Bull Market peak may occur 518-546 days after the Halving

That's mid-September or mid-October 2025

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Move along, nothing to see here

[Altcoin Daily @AltcoinDaily]

we are on the cusp of something BIG #crypto

[Rekt Capital @rektcapital]

#BTC

If history repeats...

Next Bull Market peak may occur 518-546 days after the Halving

That's mid-September or mid-October 2025

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

24 crypto predictions for 2024

Unlike other threads put in as many hard numbers for these predictions to make them quantifiable.

Also tried to call out as many start-ups/hidden gems as possible. Most launching in Q1.

15 for 25 last year.

Can we do better this year? NFA

[Solana @solana]

"DePIN infrastructure winners are beginning to emerge, with Solana in the lead.”-@MessariCrypto💪

@MessariCrypto’s State of DePIN 2023 highlights DePIN developments on Solana, including ecosystem projects @Hivemapper, @RenderNetwork, & @Helium.

Dive in: https://t.co/yPupKt8dXO

[Altcoin Daily @AltcoinDaily]

7 Top #Solana Killers to Know in 2024

1) Near Protocol
2) Polkadot
3) Aptos
4) Sui
5) Mina
6) Cardano
7) Ethereum

Bonus: Injective???

👇What's your pick?

[Rekt Capital @rektcapital]

#BTC

5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving

1. Pre-Halving period

Just over 100 days remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024

Historically, any deeper retraces that occur during this period tend to generate fantastic Return On Investment for investors in the several months after the Halving

Could this retrace be a result of hype and speculation surrounding the Bitcoin ETF finally being resolved?

That means a deeper retrace could occur within the upcoming two months or so, between now and early March

This upcoming two month period will be crucial as any retrace during this period will likely represent the final bargain-buying opportunity for Bitcoin

2. Pre-Halving rally

Then ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)

In anticipation of the Halving, investors "Buy the Hype" in an effort to "Sell the News"

Short-term traders and speculators "Buy The Hype" several weeks before the Halving in anticipation of making a profit from this hype-fuelled rally

Then these speculators "Sell The News" to realise that profit, contributing to a Pre-Halving retrace which occurs only a handful of weeks before the Halving event itself

3. Pre-Halving retrace

A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur around the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)

In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep

In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep

This Pre-Halving retrace can last multiple weeks, making investors question whether the Halving was a bullish catalyst on price after all

4. Re-Accumulation

The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by multi-month re-accumulation (red)

Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving

5. Parabolic Uptrend

Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)

It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to new All Time Highs

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

[Amy.Le @Chaule63]

@AstraGuild Is it a scam?

[HuDroidz NFT @hudroidz]

Morning, Droidz!

Hope everyone has a great day 🙏🙏🙏

The front and back end of of @hudroidz website & smart contract is being verified as we speak ✅✅✅

We will be opening up minting on Saturday 9th April! Set your reminders 🤝🤝🤝

[Amy.Le @Chaule63]

@Beamswapio @MoonbeamNetwork @MoonBeansIO Why is beamswap not on cmc?

[Amy.Le @Chaule63]

@CESS_Storage @SolrDao Due to the uncertainty of the current market, are you planning to postpone ido?

[Amy.Le @Chaule63]

@CESS_Storage @SolrDao Is there any airdrop coming for early supporter?

[CESS Network @CESS_Storage]

✅#AMA with @SolrDao on 24th Feb at 18:00 PM UTC

💰Rewards: $250

📍Venue: https://t.co/AsVfVnAOUr

⭐️Rules:
1⃣ Follow us & @SolrDao
2⃣ Like & RT
3⃣ Comment the questions you have for #CESS

👩🏻‍💻5 users will be picked here to share $100 and the rest will be chosen during the AMA.

[Amy.Le @Chaule63]

@CESS_Storage @SolrDao Is cess making a similar system to filecoin but on dot?

[OneRing (🔴,🔴) @Onering_Tools]

Great $USDT yield on @GeistFinance

What is missing is a product that finds all the good #Stablecoin Yield opportunities so users dont have to spend hours looking for them.

OneRing is solving this problem :)

[Amy.Le @Chaule63]

@FishDAO @TheNestArcade Can’t wait #fishfam