Metaquant

Front-running the Front-runners

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

Put me on the stand, accuse me, blame me, sue me, or whatever you like.

But I cannot imagine a scenario where the market cycle tops out until sovereign wealth funds, corporate treasuries, pension funds, and nation states start aping in crypto.

You are definitely seeing a six-figure Bitcoin—that is confirmed.

BTC would top b/w 125K - 145K

Take me to court if I'm wrong

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

Not everyone will make it this cycle.

You need to shift your mindset and detach from the crowd.

Coinbase app ranking will not tell you when the top is in.

Start thinking differently.

“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

In other words, when we set one specific goal, people will tend to optimize for that objective regardless of the consequences. This leads to ignoring other equally important factors of a situation.

Furthermore, let me tell you that most of the top signals mentioned on CT won't work this time.

What was an obvious top signal in 2017 wasn't in 2021, and the same goes for 2024-25.

We’re moving towards the right curve of the adoption rate, and now all retail knows about crypto - some heard about it in 2017, and then almost everyone heard about it in 2021.

Don't mix the signs of adoption with top signals. Don’t let the PTSD ruin your fun.

Another point to address is the shift of influence - BlackRock & Co. controls Bitcoin now.

They are the major ETF providers and own shares of each other. So, they control the sentiment around BTC now.

And they also own all the media platforms. They can literally shape the narrative as they want.

Let me re-phrase it like this:

If most of this run-up is driven by institutional bids, why would retail indicators be relevant?

The indicator for this cycle will come from the people who haven’t been onboarded yet.

Yes, It can be retail who still haven't touched crypto - "late majority" and "laggards" - but you gotta think on a bigger scale.

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Think of those countries with a sovereign wealth fund starting to diversify in $BTC. Some already invest in stocks, so it might be possible to see this scenario.

• Saudi Arabia - $400 billion
• Abu Dhabi - $800 billion
• China - $1 trillion
• Norway - $1 trillion
• Australia - $150 billion
• Qatar - $300 billion
• Singapore - $500 billion

Corporate Treasuries

We have already seen this in 2021 with Tesla purchasing $BTC and, more recently, with Reddit disclosing some of its crypto holdings.

The trend is just starting. Once you see daily headlines of companies diversifying their assets into
,it might be rational to start derisking.

Stock Market IPOs

Coinbase IPO in 2021 was the first major crypto company to be listed in the stock market. We might see this time tens of crypto companies doing their IPOs, and at some point, one listing will mark the top.

Over-Leveraging

Big hedge funds, companies, and maybe even small countries over-leveraging in the final stages of the bull run and getting rekt could be another scenario we might see this cycle.

Rehypothecation Crisis

The next Luna-type of collapse might come from the restaking sector and kickstart the bear market. It seems like everyone is overlooking the huge consequences of a depeg or slashing event in this sector.

Gold Reserves

The ultimate ultra top signal could be governments diversifying a small % of their gold reserves into Bitcoin - the "digital gold".

Some additional minor signals

Low-Income Countries Workers Shortage

Another big signal is when low-income countries will have a shortage of workers because these are making $300 to $600 a month mapping the roads with hivemapper or other DePIN projects and earning a higher salary than what they'd normally get.

Happened at a small scale last cycle with Axie and StepN. Will happen at a larger scale this cycle.

Las Vegas Sphere

Time Square was full of shit memecoins in 2021. The Las Vegas Sphere with crypto ads running on it for weeks straight will be the version of this cycle.

Funding Rounds

A pretty secure signal again will be checking the volumes of VC investments. Funding rounds skyrocketing and, maybe overpassing tradFi ones might be the indicator again to start exiting.

“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.

- George Soros.

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@thedefivillain still too early to say, but a trend seems to be forming and i like non consensus bets

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@imapiggy_pig You absolutely crushed it and the fact that you stuck to conviction trades makes it even more impressive and says a lot about your discipline

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@listenralf yes red button enjoyers have been feasting on most of these binance listings.

[Risk @ryzzqq]

52 Trading Never-Dos: Lessons Every Trader Learns The Hard Way

1) Never oversize. That is when you start becoming irrational. Blowing up while still being right is the fastest way to ruin.

2) Never trade when tired or sleep-deprived. Decision fatigue has ended more traders than liquidation ever could.

3) Never trade without a defined edge. Entering without one is just gambling with extra steps. If you can’t explain your edge in a single sentence, you probably don’t have one.

4) Never enter a position out of boredom. The desire to always be in a trade leads to suboptimal returns. More often than not, doing nothing is the best move.If you find yourself taking trades just to feel busy or because you “haven’t traded in a while,” check yourself. Trading for action leads to sloppy decisions and losses​.There’s no prize for the most trades – only for the most profitable trades. Sometimes the best trade is no trade

5) Never trade after a big loss. Tilt sets in, and you try to win it all back in one bad bet. Trying to recover everything at once is a guaranteed way to lose even more.

6) Never enter a position without an exit plan. Whether it’s a time-based stop, price stop, invalidation, or catalyst-driven exit—define it before you enter. Remember, the last moment of objectivity is before you place the trade​.Once you’re in, it’s much harder to admit you’re wrong, so decide beforehand when to cut the loss.

7) Never marry your bags. The market doesn’t care about your conviction. Cut or be cut.

8) Never trade your PNL—trade the market. Chasing losses or fixating on past wins clouds judgment and distorts execution.

9) Not all views are meant to be traded. The best trade is often no trade. Preserving capital and mental bandwidth for when odds favor you is more important than forcing activity.

10) Never fight the trend. The wave is stronger than you. Adapt or get wiped out.

11) Never try to knife catch without reason. "Cheap" can always get cheaper.

12) Never break your trading rules or deviate from your plan in the heat of the moment.​ Your rules exist for a reason – usually learned from painful experience. The moment you convince yourself “just this once” to ignore a rule (like moving a stop, or doubling down, or trading too big), you open the door to chaos. Discipline is doing the right thing even when it’s hard. As one trading maxim goes, plan the trade and trade the plan.

13) Never fire all your bullets at once.

14) Never trade outside your comfort zone. If a position is too big, you’ll start making fear-based decisions, thinking that market or someone is trying to liquidate you seeing ghosts where none exists. Size your trades proportional to the quality of your sleep at night.

15) Never let ego keep you in a bad trade. Admit when you're wrong—cut, reset, move on.

16) Never underestimate market reflexivity. Strength can always go higher, weakness can always go lower.

17) Never assume liquidity will be there when you need it. The exit door is always smaller than you imagine—liquidity isn’t something you decide, the market does.

18) Never mistake randomness for strategy. Buying because price is going up or shorting because it “feels high” isn’t trading—it’s blind betting. Even with good risk management, you’ll bleed out over time if your entries are based on nothing.

19) Never make the same mistake twice. Trading mistakes are inevitable, repeating them is unacceptable. Never lose the same way twice

20) Never forget to play defense. Being wrong is acceptable, staying wrong is not. Protecting capital always comes first. "Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”

21) Never just focus on offense. Survival > everything. If you don’t bet, you can’t win. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.

22) Never fall into lifestyle creep after one big win. The problem starts when you begin forecasting annual income based on a single lucky trade.

23) Never forget to turn defensive after a hot streak. Big losses come after a series of wins when overconfidence sets in. Check your ego—your last big trade means nothing to the market.

24) Never let pride, ego, or overconfidence take over. Always stay humble.|

25) Never trade in situations where you don’t have control. for eg. FOMC events

26) Never get complacent. A strategy that worked in one regime may stop working in another. Trading is a craft that requires continuous self-improvement. Comfort Is Often the Enemy of your PNL. Never assume you know for sure what the market will do. “We have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know — and those who don’t know that they don’t know.”​ Never assume your edge is permanent. Markets evolve, edges fade, and what worked last cycle may be useless in the next. Keep refining, keep testing—stagnation is death.

27) Never ever average losers after your reasoning has been invalidated

28) Never trade with certainty, trade with conviction.

29) Never assume the market “must” do something, especially based on recent patterns.​The market doesn’t owe you continuity or logic. Just because a market has been rising (or falling) steadily doesn’t mean it can’t abruptly reverse. Avoid words like “surely” or “can’t possibly” in trading. Stay flexible – anything can happen. As a reminder: never say never about market behavior.

30) Never mistake win rate for everything. Maximizing winning trades for the sake of feeling good is a trap. Taking profits too early or avoiding necessary small losses ultimately hurts profitability.

31) Never underestimate discipline, patience, risk control, and execution over alpha generation. Plenty of traders have great alpha flow but don’t know how to use it.Good execution involves choosing not just what and how to trade, but when not to trade. Sometimes the best execution decision is no trade at all if conditions aren’t suitable. Always ask: “Do I have an edge here, or am I flipping coins?” If it’s the latter, save your capital for a better spot.

32) Never fall apart after a big loss or get euphoric after a big win. Emotional resilience is a trader’s strongest asset.

33)Never ignore price action after news. If the market reacts opposite to what you expected, get out. The market is telling you something you don’t see.

34) Never trade on borrowed conviction. If you buy on someone else’s tip, you’ll need them to call your exit too—and when they go silent, you’re stuck. As Livermore said: “Nobody makes big money on what someone else tells him to do.” Hone your own craft, build your own system. If you can’t trust your own decisions, you’re just a pawn in someone else’s trade.

35) Never go against your intuition. If something feels off, it usually is.

36) Never try to Catch Every Move It’s tempting to try to grab every up and down in the market, but that’s a fool’s errand. Always come from the mindset of abundance and not scarcity, markets will still be there and there are ample opportunities in the market to make you whole,
you don’t need to swing at every pitch.

37) Never underestimate the power of failure. Failing early and failing often—while staying in the game—is how you get better.

38) Never hold onto losers when your thesis is invalidated, especially after a massive drop. "I’ve lost too much to sell now" is how you go to zero.

39) Never let "getting back to break even" dictate your decisions. That mindset leads to overtrading and eventually, full liquidation.

40) Never focus only on entries. A trade isn’t over until you’ve exited. Knowing when to cash out is just as important as knowing when to enter.

41) Never ignore the “boring” part (position sizing, stops, risk/reward) – it’s what keeps you in business.Don’t wait for a catastrophic loss to teach you this lesson.

42) Never trade for the adrenaline rush, Trade for the win

43) Never fall into the illusion of strength—it’s often just lagging behind reality.

44) Never stay/enter in a position out of 'HOPE' and wishful thinking

45) Never underestimate risk management. Prioritize protecting capital over chasing profits. "Take care of your losses, and the profits will take care of themselves."

46) Never exit/enter a position recklessly. The same way you scale in, you should scale out—"all in, all out" is a recipe for disaster.

47) Never make a bet you can’t afford to lose. No single trade should ever be big enough to take you out of the game.“The most important advice is to never let a loser get out of hand.” You should be able to be wrong 20 or 30 times in a row and still have capital left​. Never allow a single position to jeopardize your trading career

48) Never trade outside your edge. If it’s not there, sit out. Forcing trades outside your framework is how accounts erode.

49) Never assume your edge is permanent. Markets evolve, edges fade, and what worked last cycle may be useless in the next. Keep refining, keep testing—stagnation is death.

50) Never judge a trade solely by its outcome. Good trades lose money sometimes, and bad trades can get lucky. Focus on execution over results.

51) Never worry about looking stupid or staying in a position because of your public opinion. I have seen many a men die before their time because they were worried about getting publicly ashamed. Cut your losses without hesitation. The market doesn’t care about your pride—neither should you.

52) Never underestimate the power of stepping away. If you’re in a losing streak, liquidate everything and take a break. Mental capital is just as important as financial capital. The key is to break the negative emotional spiral
Once you come back keep your size small and increase exposure only when you gain back your confidence.

These lessons were learned thanks to the books I’ve read, the smart traders I’ve learned from, and the endless mistakes I’ve made along the way.

Trading is lonely. It hurts. It makes you question everything. But if I had to choose again? I’d still take this over everything.

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@TheCryptoData @pakpakchicken thanks for the mention <3

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@shitcoin_maxxi @TresLeFer We are already pumping into inaug

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

A little update:

XRP didn’t go below $2.2 even during that cascade; the strength was very telling. I’m exiting here with the view that from here on, XRP’s MOAS is near.
If I had to guess, T - 4 days.
Post January 20th, I expect XRP to underperform heavily relative to the market, which is the exact opposite of its current isolated strength.

LINK still holding (many people don’t know that it’s made in the USA).

HYPE in good profit, but I think I’ll get to buy it again under 20, so I’ve exited.

FARTCOIN is the hardest most reflexive coin I’ve ever traded after Moodeng, but anyway, I’m out of it—thanks to Wintermute, I guess.

Exited Pengu at b/e

Lastly, sold SPX at a loss.

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

bought these for the short term
FARTCOIN
XRP
HYPE
LINK
PENGU
SPX

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@shitcoin_maxxi @TresLeFer MOAS type candle like the one we had from 102K

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@AbBabyAb Only going to post on X from now on. I realized that I was wasting too much time on TG giving updates on a day-to-day basis.

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

so far doing good

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

bought these for the short term
FARTCOIN
XRP
HYPE
LINK
PENGU
SPX

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@dragossden hot air rises

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@mrjasonchoi Yeah same vibes

[Risk @ryzzqq]

Continued..

End Goal "MOAL" : To catch the liquidity cascade to the 84-87K range.

Overall, we will go much more lower before higher.
We won’t reach there all at once. There will be some reversals along the way, for eg. bounce from 92-94K to 98K, where we may consolidate for a while where there will may be a small scam move +1-2K to flush out shorts before we eventually resolve lower.

Short any significant move up. While it may not be generational "MOAS" anymore, at least you’ll be positioned to ride the wave in the right direction.

Every up move will eventually get sold off, and as mentioned before we are unlikely to break the ATH unless there is significant macro news or a major catalyst like an SBR. (which won't really play out anytime soon)

Expecting a bullish period to start again from End of January (I’ll try to updates in real-time as it’s easier to adjust based on new developments).

No vague takes here like others—no hedged views either. Can’t get more precise than this.

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@pakpakchicken He goes by Yellow GCR

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

AI-based protocols will become the norm. Those who fail to integrate AI agents into their projects can only fall behind.

From auditors to builders, from DeFi users to traders, everyone will benefit from this innovation in the coming months.

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@crypto_popseye @cryptoskullx Agentic AI L1 is even better

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@_happyk21 Some mistakes were made in the wallet that I controlled

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

@shaundadevens I guess i need to start yapping to make it to the right