check coula

[check coula @checkcoula]

If confirmed, it's the second Renfe-Iryo crash in ~9 months after Adamuz. Key questions for Spain's rail accident commission (CIAF): why traffic kept moving in degraded mode, and what Adif's rules are when signalling fails on the Madrid-Seville line.

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Two high-speed trains collided at 08:54 near Urda (Toledo), Spain: Renfe AVE 2080 struck the rear of Iryo 6076 on the Madrid-Andalusia line, and two cars went down an embankment. Police sources confirm deaths; early tolls vary widely. The line is shut. #Spain #Toledo

[check coula @checkcoula]

The detail to watch: railway sources told El Español the LZB cab-signalling system had failed and trains were running under BSL, a fallback mode relying on lineside signals with fewer automatic protections. A rear-end hit is exactly what LZB exists to prevent.

[check coula @checkcoula]

What to watch:
- A third of the vote plus soldiers' and diplomats' double envelopes still uncounted
- The Reservists list sits at 2.66%, under the 3.25% threshold, so ~100K votes may go to waste
- Projections already moved 1-2 seats overnight

Likud 28, Yashar 21 for now.

[check coula @checkcoula]

Israel's election: nobody has 61.

With 66% of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc projects to 55 seats, Eisenkot's opposition to 47, Arab-led lists to 18.

Any non-Netanyahu government now runs through the Arab parties, or no one governs. #IsraelElections

[check coula @checkcoula]

The non-obvious math: 47 + 18 = 65, a majority on paper.

But the Joint List (12) has never joined a governing coalition. Only Ra'am (6) has, in the 2021 Bennett-Lapid government. 47 + 6 = 53.

So Eisenkot needs outside backing, not just a coalition deal.

[check coula @checkcoula]

The non-obvious part: Biconomy also supplied the coins (Scilex sold Semnur shares to it for BTC). Same venue on both sides, no on-chain proof.

Watch: whether the withdrawal clears, DVLT's listing status, and any "BTC treasury" that can't show an address.
#Bitcoin

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A Nasdaq company just learned crypto's oldest lesson in public.

Datavault AI ($DVLT) says it hasn't been able to withdraw its bitcoin from exchange Biconomy since June. Stock -49.6% to $0.067. Four sets of financials can no longer be relied on.

What happened 🧵

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The BTC never moved on-chain.

Scilex paid $150M for DVLT stock by crediting 1,309 BTC to Datavault's Biconomy account off-chain. 491 BTC were later sold back for ~$40.5M.

Now Datavault says it was never its asset at all, just a receivable owed by Scilex.

[check coula @checkcoula]

What to watch: Alphabet reports Wednesday. Its CFO said TPU sales start as a small slice of revenue by year-end, with most landing in 2027.

Any TPU backlog figure is the tell for whether Google is building a second Nvidia-scale chip business. #AI #Nvidia

[check coula @checkcoula]

Google is now selling AI chips to its rivals.

Oracle will offer Google TPUs on its cloud from 2027, the first hyperscaler outside Google to do so. Same day, OpenAI was reported to plan TPU purchases (The Information, Bloomberg).

Nvidia's biggest threat may be Google, not AMD.

[check coula @checkcoula]

Nuance: training is still Nvidia's turf. Oracle also expanded Vera Rubin to "multi-gigawatt" scale.

But inference is splintering. OCI is adding Google TPU 8i, Cerebras, SambaNova and OpenAI's Jalapeño chip, and even its Nvidia racks will use Oracle's own Acceleron networking.

[check coula @checkcoula]

What to watch: Nomura's case is that Jio's capex cycle is largely over and free cash flow improves sharply. The next few quarters have to show it.

And with a record 1.4 crore applications, a lot of first-time holders will meet their first red day. How they react matters.

[check coula @checkcoula]

India's biggest IPO ever just listed, and the telling number isn't the 21% pop.

Jio Platforms opened at ₹1,358 vs ₹1,119 issue. ~₹12.5 lakh crore mcap, now India's #2 company, ahead of Airtel and HDFC Bank.

Institutions bid 70.55x. Retail: 2.72x. 🧵 #JioIPOlisting

[check coula @checkcoula]

Two things stand out:

1) Nomura's "buy" target is ₹1,340. The stock opened above it, so day one already priced in the bull case.

2) Reliance owns 64.48%. Its stake, worth ~₹8 lakh crore, just got a market price, and RIL's stock moved +0.07%. Holdco discount in action.

[check coula @checkcoula]

Structure matters too: $35B of stock + preferred now, then a ~$60B at-the-market sale once new non-voting Class C shares trade in Q1 2027.

Lots of outside money, Zuckerberg's control intact.

Watch: Q4 cash flow, and whether other hyperscalers follow with equity.

[check coula @checkcoula]

Meta is selling up to $97.5B of its own stock to pay for AI.

Q3 free cash flow: -$2.1B, its first negative quarter in over a decade. 2026 capex guide: $135-145B.

The ad machine that funded everything can't fund the AI build alone anymore. #Meta #AI

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The non-obvious part: Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have shown interest in up to $5B of the new shares.

Chip suppliers helping finance one of their biggest customers, who then spends it on their chips. Demand that partly funds itself is worth watching closely.

[check coula @checkcoula]

What to watch: compute & infra was $8.9B, ~55% of H1 revenue. Operating margin went from -184% to -4% in a year.

Price range and share count come in an amended S-1 (WSJ: ~2 weeks). Nasdaq ticker: ANT.

Filing: https://t.co/wtXuD1r51i

[check coula @checkcoula]

Anthropic's S-1 headline: an $80.7B net loss. The number that matters: a $693M operating loss.

H1 2026 revenue hit $16.3B, up from $1.16B a year earlier. ~$72B of the loss is non-cash fair-value marks on convertible notes and SAFEs.

The real story is control #Anthropic #IPO

[check coula @checkcoula]

One Class F share held by the 7 co-founders carries 50.1% of shareholder votes. A Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a board majority via Class T stock.

IPO buyers get the economics, not the steering wheel. That's by design for a public benefit corp.