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Jérôme N.
@cherooome
Retzwiller, France
Joined March 2021
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你以为的底，很可能是鲸鱼画给你看的“牛市陷阱”——反弹到$68k-$70k，只是为了给下一刀蓄力。
真正的价值区间还在$35k-$42k，现在远没到摊牌的时候。
过去一年，$126k顶和$60k底我都提前喊过，这次也一样——打开通知，别等跌完了才来问我“还能不能抄”。
📊 $BTC 路线图：
📅 7 月 → 盘整
📅 8 月 → 跌向 $50K
📅 9 月 → $50K 低位震荡
📅 10 月 → 底部
📅 11 月 → 反弹
📅 12 月 → 牛市开始
⚠️ 当前反弹 = 陷阱（感觉像底，实际是暴跌前奏）
📉 9 月 = 历史上收跌最多的月份 → 磨底
🎯 10 月最终底部
🔔 关注 + 开通知，我会更新
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$BTC:
1. Shorted the top at 120k called for 60k
2. At 60k I said, bull trap starts, pump to 80k
3. At 80k I said, bull trap is over, dump to 60k
4. Now at 60k, looking forward to Target 3
Congratulations for everyone who listened
#Bitcoin is entering in its final stage of the bull trap before continue going down with force to new lows! The next downside move starts from this region and I plan to keep my long from 71k region open till 83-85k and start building shorts after taken profits on the long!
#Bitcoin: The big bullish trap is in the making and I’m profiting from this move with the long from 71k, and yet I understand it’s a trap and a sharp downside move is going to follow. Don’t get tricked, this upside move will end up in a massive downside move!
LONGING $BTC AT $71,750
SHORT FROM 115-125K IS OPEN!
TAKE PROFIT BETWEEN 79-84K
SHORT ORDERS BETWEEN 79-84K
TRAP THE RETAILS FIRST, CRASH AFTER!
I have predicted the top in 2021 at 60k
I have called the bottom at 16k in 2022
I have called the top at 115-125 in 2025
I’m calling the BTC bottom between 35-45k
The bottom for BTC was not in
More and more down we go
Expecting targets below 50k
The bear leads with full strength
#Bitcoin: The rule is very simple
Bitcoin has not bottomed out, 40-48k is coming
Potential of an upside move in the short term
For this reason, placed short orders at 79-84k
#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know🚩
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Since September 2025, I have been sharing my outlook and expectations for Bitcoin and how things would unfold over the coming months. At the short entry of 115–125K, I first gave a target of 100K, which was reached just a few weeks after my prediction. After that, I clearly stated that a sideways move would follow before a drop to 60K. Back then, this was hard to believe, yet it played out exactly as expected a few weeks later. At 60K, I said we would enter a sideways range, with a box between 57K–87K. Bitcoin recently moved up to 76K, and just a few days later dropped sharply back to 68K. Is this the bullish trap I have been talking about? Yes, it is one of the traps in this region before continuation to the downside.
My strategy is very simple. I sold the Bitcoin I bought two weeks ago in the 68K region and I am only holding my larger short from 115–125K. I am willing to add more shorts in the 79–84K region with x5 leverage, and these orders are already placed. We are in a big bear market scenario, not only for Bitcoin but also for the overall stock market. Back in September, I pointed out significant liquidity stress in the repo market, as well as the increasing RISKS on the Fed’s standing repo facility. In addition, we are seeing ongoing manipulation in silver and gold markets, where futures prices are becoming increasingly disconnected from physical supply, which continues to be drained. Oil prices are rising, aligning with the analysis I shared two months ago when I entered Chevron, currently one of the biggest winners from these developments. AI and data-related stocks are heavily overinvested and overbought. I shorted these sectors, and the positions were shared in premium back in November. Many of them are already down 30–40%, including stocks like PLTR, MSFT, and Coinbase. All my short positions are currently in profit. I am short Bitcoin, stocks (especially AI-focused), and indices in the UK, Germany, and Japan.
What am I bullish on? Only a few assets: Chevron stock, physical metals, and Oil. I am also holding a long on oil, which I shared two weeks ago in premium at an entry of $84. That is my current portfolio positioning. I expect the bear market to dominate most assets while only a few selected ones remain strong. Bitcoin is currently in a weak position and lacks clear direction, which explains the ongoing sideways movement. However, the next major move is still likely to the downside. Market makers are attempting to push the price higher to capture liquidity above, before driving it lower. At the same time, based on current data, they appear more cautious due to the macro and geopolitical environment which is also for them a high risk to make any big moves for now.
For this reason, I have slightly adjusted my short entry zone to 79–84K, where my orders are now placed. Until then, I continue holding my core short from 115–125K. A few days ago, I mentioned XRP. I entered a position, and it moved 16% higher shortly after. However, I took profits and publicly shared that I closed the trade with around 5% gain. The reason is simple, the risk-reward is no longer as attractive as it was a few weeks ago, and this with considering the potential for a broader Bitcoin move. This is also why I am no longer holding spot positions in Bitcoin. The next major downside move is only a matter of time. I am not ruling out another fake move before that happens, and if we do see it, I will use it to add further short positions, but overall we are heading to TARGET 3 which is showed on the chart.
The FOMC last week gave us another great insight into where we are heading. The next rate cut is now expected in December 2026, much later than the market anticipated. I remember when I announced the last rate cut in December 2025, and people were saying we would see another one at the next FOMC meeting. They were wrong. Now watch the fear in the markets unfold, no rate cuts in place, while inflation is increasing based on the latest PPI and Core PPI data. Scary, right? Do you know that your left eye is connected to the right side of your brain, which is the center of emotions? Some people really need to become pirates to trade without emotions. And now is the time to have ZERO emotions at all. Market makers are playing with emotions and the mind , prepare for heavy manipulation ahead before the next major downside move. Liquidity stress is building, and a repeat of 2008 is getting closer. I didn’t call for a correction in September 2025, I called for a major crash, and that is exactly where we are heading. I am fully prepared and there are no buy orders between 57-60k, and only short orders at 79-84k in case market allows to visit.
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Since COVID I’m insanely bullish on Gold. Only a non educated peasant is watching the price for GOLD and believes it should have a price tag. Gold is money while the price tag you watch is parabolic inflated debt. I remain, INSANELY bullish on Gold.
#Bitcoin: For all those who missed to enter the big short with me months ago. Tomorrow in the Sunday report I will give a new short entry, an area where I’m going to add more into my existing shorts from 115-125k.
#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know🚩
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: In last Month’s Sunday report at 65K, I made it very clear that a new box is forming. I expect Bitcoin to move sideways between 57k and 87k, a 33% range, as already stated. This sideways phase is not bullish, it is the preparation for whats coming in the next months. I expect a leg down after this phase, with a breakdown from the box toward lower targets in the coming months of 44-50k region. One year ago, in 2024, Bitcoin spent an entire year moving inside a box between 58k and 74k. At that time, I repeatedly explained that this box had three main purposes. The most important one was the drawing of future reference lines for the next bear market. I said many times that the 2024 box would play a key role again during the 2026 bear market, in the same price areas. That is exactly what is happening now. Bitcoin is currently trading in a zone where it previously consolidated for an entire year before breaking higher toward 100k. In a bear market context, this same zone is not support, it is structure, and structure eventually breaks. Once the sideways phase is complete, I expect a breakdown below the box.
Bitcoin is entering the phase of relief phase, means sideway move for several weeks with potential bullish moves as shown in the upside potential box. Please compare the charts with 2022, we are repeating the exact move of 2022 in which BTC went down 52% from its ATH, beofre it went up 44% from its low, before the next and strong leg down. Exaclty as what we saw right now! An exact repeat of 2022! Both went down exactly 52% from ATH, and now is the time to start the sideway move. This means Bitcoin that is following the same fractal and has strong upside potential for the coming months before continue going down lower than 60k. The market psycology supports this idea as well as everyone is now scared and the fear and greed is at absolute extreme fear. Before the new leg down happens we need to create additional liquidity in the downside and take the liquidity that was built to the upside. Remember, markets are mainly all about liquidity taking and now is a good time for market makers to send BTC into a relief mode, before the bear market continues.
Current Plan and Range Logic: I am expecting a large sideways movement between 57k and 87k. My clear intention is to buy between 57k and 60k, which is the bottom of the current box. A buy order was hit few weeks ago at 60k and most recently I have bought at 68k. It is critical to understand that the bottom of the box does not mean the final bottom for Bitcoin. It means the bottom of the current phase. I buy 57k–60k for percentage gains, not for the long term plan as I usually do.
As an example, Bitcoin is already up roughly 12% up from the 60k buy entry I shared a few weeks ago, and 2% down from the recent 68k buy order. Does this mean 88k is a guaranteed target? No. It means two simple things. First, Bitcoin between 57k and 60k is in a recovery and bounce phase, which usually includes sideways action. Second, the highest level I expect Bitcoin could reach during this phase is around 88k, depending on the strength and duration of the sideways market. If the market allows a visit to the 88k area, I am open to adding more to my existing shorts that were opened between 115k and 125k and are still fully held.
Positioning and Execution: Some people like to complicate things. From my perspective, it is very simple. I am holding shorts from 115k–125k. At the same time, I placed multiple spot buy orders between 57k and 60k, in addition to the recent 68k buy order. I plan to hold these gains because I expect continued sideways action and no immediate further downside in the coming weeks. I consider 57k–60k the local bottom, not the macro bottom, and I expect this area to be tested multiple times. That is exactly why buying there makes sense to me. There is no reason to sell while upside potential remains. When the moment to sell comes, I will metion once I sold or planning to sell.
Bitcoin will move sideways until it no longer does. The largest and most aggressive long-term bets will be placed much lower, between the 50k level and into the low 40s. That is where I will re-enter with serious size for the next cycle, while taking profits from the 115k–125k short, and thats the area I believe Bitcoin will be finally bottomed out. This area is expected to be hit in September-October as my calculations show, in the meantime? A long and boring sideway as mentioned exactly one month ago.
Why I am Buying Now in a Bear Market? Some ask why I am buying now if I expect Bitcoin to eventually bottom below 50k. The answer is simple: markets do not move in straight lines. Even in bear markets, there are powerful counter-trend rallies. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped from 68k to 33k almost without pause. Then, within two months, it rallied from 33k to 48.5k, a 50% move, before continuing down to the final bottom at 16k. This is how markets work. We are in a bear market. The bounces are temporary and exist to build liquidity for further downside. My ultimate bear market target remains below 50k, in the 40s area. That is where my largest positions will be built. Until then, my short from 115k–125k remains fully open. I am not longing with leverage. I am buying spot between 57k and 60k while keeping the short open.
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#Bitcoin: Very bullish for the coming weeks. I opened a spot position while keeping my $125K short fully open. Even in a bear phase you get aggressive upside moves, and I’m more than happy to take that advantage. My view hasn’t changed: the bottom is not in yet
#Bitcoin – Special Weekly Report:
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4 out of 6 in the current bear market: These six stages are my own framework, developed through direct observation of every major Bitcoin bull and bear market so far. The structure repeats because the underlying drivers repeat: liquidity mechanics, leverage positioning, and predictable human behavior under stress and current panic.
Stage 1: Euphoric market and insane buying appetite:
This is what happened between 115k and 125k. The first stage mainly ends with extended sideways movement at euphoric levels, often biased in one direction, or with sudden spikes to the upside after a long consolidation despite extreme bullish sentiment. On the surface, everything looks strong, but in reality the market is overloaded and overleveraged, with late entrants who believe risk has disappeared. Insane price predictions happen here, and people reach the highest level of greed.
Stage 2: Breakdown of a highly important psychological level:
This stage begins once we drop below an important psychological mark, which in this cycle was 100k. The psychological level is extremely important because its loss stresses short-term investors and flushes out leverage traders, giving them the first warning signs that their euphoric dream from Stage 1 is over. The speed of the second move is noticeable and intentional. It happens very quickly and does not allow investors to rethink, recalculate, or properly manage their positions. The market acts before they can react. It front-runs them, and many lose control here. The best example was the fast crash on the 10th of October, which caused the largest liquidation event in crypto history. It happened within a few hours.
Stage 3: The fastest and most brutal move + bear market confirmation:
After Stage 2, the market needs to move even faster. Market makers cannot allow retail to realize what is happening; the speed needs to be maintained, so an even more brutal downside move follows. Stage 3 is the fastest of all phases and fully confirms the bear market with an extreme and rapid downside move, typically exceeding a 50% drawdown from the all-time high, which has been the case. In this scenario, investors are in deep depression and strong panic. They had no time to recalculate, hedge correctly, or reduce leverage. They are sitting on losses they never prepared for. I consider Stage 3 the most brutal phase of a bear market. It happens very fast and removes reaction time. The move from 97k in January to 60k in February, a crash of 50% within only 30 days, reflects that brutality. Many have not realized that nearly 50% of BTC’s market cap was wiped out within 30 days. The most violent mechanical repricing is likely behind us, and we have now entered Stage 4, which brings retail into psychological torture.
Stage 4: Dehydration, depression, and perfect liquidity creation:
This is where we are now. Stage 4 is not very violent or volatile, but it is extremely exhausting. The price moves sideways for a long period, often several months, within its own defined region. This is why I defined the current sideways structure and drew the “box,” showing clear upside and downside boundaries. You could also describe this as a weak-hands selling zone. A sideways move allows market makers to generate liquidity on both the upside and downside by trapping breakout traders and breakdown sellers. Sideways does not mean nothing is happening in the market, that is what retail sees when markets move sideways for a long time, but the message is much bigger. It means the market is preparing to exhaust participants fully while creating a large cluster of liquidity below the current zone, an area defined as the future capitulation region. This phase creates dehydration, frustration, regret, and anxiety. Retail traders start saying, “Bitcoin will drop another 30–40%; it’s better to sell here.” Many think the same way. Most short-term holder capitulation happens in Stage 4. Retail traders exit here because they missed selling in Stage 1, failed to sell in Stage 2, and had no time to react in Stage 3. Now they sell at a loss, as on-chain data confirms. Based on the data I see, the breakdown below the box that will bring us into Stage 5 is more likely to happen in a few months, not in the coming weeks. For the short term, I have placed buy orders between 57–60k within the current sideways structure and expect a bounce in the short to mid term. This does not change my broader outlook of lower targets.
Stage 5: Total fear, drama, and capitulation:
This is the true capitulation phase. It is not always the fastest move, but it is the most emotional one. Fear turns into panic, and panic turns into forced selling, even among experienced long-term holders. This stage is often connected with the collapse of a large player, an exchange failure, or a black swan event. It is remarkable to see panic selling after an asset is already down 50–70% from its all-time high, yet this phenomenon repeats every cycle. Originally, I projected the bottom between 50–60k when BTC was trading at 120k. In January, I adjusted this to 40–50k. With current macro data and visible stress in global markets, including the REPO and liquidity markets, I now consider 35–45k as the ultimate bottom scenario. That implies another significant downside from current levels, where the final capitulation is likely to play out.
Stage 6: Stabilization and structural reversal:
This final stage is a mix of total fear, volatility, and continued sideways movement. Selling pressure gradually disappears, and the market begins building the foundation for the next bullish cycle. Structurally, market makers prepare for recovery. This is the moment when large players begin accumulating heavily during capitulation, while retail investors scream for lower and lower prices, calling for extreme targets such as 10k or below. Retail becomes greedy again for lower prices and ultimately misses the bottom, a perfect repeat of every cycle in which retail investors buy high and sell low.
Right now, we are in Stage 4. The worst in terms of high-speed mechanical downside is likely behind us, but the real psychological damage phase has just begun. Regret increases. People rethink their decisions. They calculate exit plans that come too late. This is the reason why we have seen the largest short-term holder capitulation in the last few days. The key lesson remains simple: never let the market trade you; you trade the market. When price moves fast, reaction time disappears. When price moves slowly, discipline disappears. Understanding these stages allows you to operate structurally rather than emotionally. My heavy accumulation will begin between Stage 5 and Stage 6, not before. This pattern has repeated across every Bitcoin cycle so far. Human behavior is an architecture repeating under different market conditions, but the architecture itself always remains the same.
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#Bitcoin: Important report is coming this Sunday about the current stage of the bear market! We are at stage 4 out of 6! The bottom was not in by far!
🚨 $BTC PERFECTLY FOLLOWS DESCENDING CHANNEL PATTERN
$125K -> $80K -> $98K -> $62K -> ~$80K -> ~$42K
POSITION ACCORDINGLY!
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