๐ท New feature dropping tomorrow: Kelly Criterion Bet Sizer You'll be able to size your positions directly from market cards. Here's how it works:
For March Madness markets โ our Elo model auto-fills the win probability
For everything else โ plug in your own probability estimate
Instantly see your edge, Kelly optimal, half Kelly, and quarter Kelly sizing
No more guessing how much to allocate. Screenshots below ๐ท How have you been sizing your bets so far? Or has it been completely vibes based ๐ท
How far does each team go? We ran 10,000 tournament simulations.
This heatmap shows every top contender's probability of reaching each round โ from the Round of 64 all the way to cutting down the nets.
Some Sweet 16 "locks" might surprise you.
(Get our app, tell us what you think? https://t.co/cAeIPaMp3w)
The East Region is the Group of Death.
Average Elo: 2304 โ significantly higher than the South (2092).
Duke, UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, St. John's all in the same region. Brutal.
๐ Who's this year's Cinderella?
We looked at every 9-16 seed's probability of reaching the Sweet 16.
(10) Missouri and (9) TCU top the list. Don't sleep on (9) Utah State either โ the Mountain West champs have real upset potential.
๐ 2026 March Madness Championship Odds (Elo Model, 10K simulations)
Duke's 32-2 record and 3453 Elo rating make them the clear favorite. But the field is deep โ Arizona, Michigan, and Florida are all lurking.
Who's your pick?
Follow for more data driven analysis!
The road to Indianapolis.
Our model simulated the tournament 10,000 times to find who's most likely to make the Final Four.
The SEC and Big Ten dominate the top spots. Color = Region.
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