Chew The Stat

Chewing the fat about sports analytics, data viz and predictive modelling by @ashwalls15 🏉🎾

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Excited to be back again to share the Monte ChaRlo Brownlow predictor for the 2022 AFL season! 🏅
R1 votes will be up later this week (pending AFL Tables update).
If you're keen to learn about the model's inner workings you can read all about it here 👇
https://t.co/lJr29nrqFJ

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Fairly unique role at Carlton currently up for grabs for any data types looking to break into the AFL industry.
We’re on the hunt for a Data Engineer to work across business and footy projects - if you’re interested please shoot me a message!
https://t.co/5eE3Q2BqfS

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

@renno53 Not at this stage unfortunately, but may try to get something up a bit later in the season if I can find the time!

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Exciting opportunity for any data people out there looking further their career in elite sport business. Come work alongside myself at the Blues in the club's analytics team to help drive club strategy and decision-making.
DMs open/link to apply below:
https://t.co/ubYrQTxUcC

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

@JoshuaMaurici Best chances are R14 v Richmond, R18 v Freo and R22 v Carlton but there’s a handful more where he’d be in with a shot

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow team leaders 🏅

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

@crow_data_sigh Neale was a miss last year for sure, but no amount of tinkering would have made the model consider him anything more than an outside shot. Whether that meant the model put him at 3%, 5% or 10% to win doesn’t phase me, it was still a very unexpected result!

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow final leaderboard 🏅

With strong fortnights to close out the H&A season, Patrick Cripps and Nick Daicos look more than likely to have made this a two-horse race.
Last year's result suggests not ruling anything out, but this would take something truly wild!

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

@crow_data_sigh I’m comfortable with the model’s read on things without having made significant changes since last year. Using MSE/MAE as my yardstick I’ve tuned the model as best I can to optimise accuracy over the entire leaderboard rather than only focusing on the eventual winner

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

No surprises here as Cripps and Daicos look the two most likely to finish the count with the most polls and the most threes.

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

A few fun ones ahead of tomorrow night's #Brownlow count 🧵

Will be interesting to see how votes are shared between Heeney, Gulden and Warner given how often they'll be polling votes in the same games.

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

A close count is the most likely outcome, although a blowout margin isn't out of the question either given how far the two leaders are expected to be from the field.

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

@MatterOfStats @WheeloRatings @FOXFOOTY @maxlaughton Hadn’t seen this! Thanks for the plug @maxlaughton

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow Round 22 leaderboard 🏅

The scriptwriters have chosen to make things interesting as Caleb Serong & Zach Merrett narrow the gap to the two leaders who both appear unlikely to poll.
The ineligible Heeney remains concerningly close to the top too.

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow Round 21 leaderboard 🏅

Cripps & Daicos both put in claims for best afield in the Blues v Pies clash on Saturday night, building their joint lead in the process. May well prove to be a decisive match in deciding the count.

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow Round 20 leaderboard 🏅

3⃣ for Daicos brings him close to level pegging with Cripps, while Caleb Serong moves into the top 5 after his best on ground performance in the Western Derby.

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

While the model is now into it's fifth season, the main elements have remained unchanged since day dot.
If you're interested in learning more about it's inputs, considerations and how it all comes together, read on here 👇
https://t.co/lJr29nrqFJ

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

Better late than never...
After some tweaks, refinements and a whole lot of procrastination, Monte ChaRlo Brownlow predictor is back for season 2024!🏅
Five rounds to play and Cripps leads all comers. If the last few years are anything to go by though, this race is far from over!

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

@Smok3y10 Getting there eventually, watch this space!

[Chew The Stat @ChewTheStat]

The Monte ChaRlo Brownlow predictor will be back for 2024...just not yet.

Still taking time to wrap my head around how 20d + 0 AFLCA votes can possibly result in 3 Brownlow votes, so will check back in with a retuned model further into the season once I've solved that riddle 🏅