Mr. Moono

Think different.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean @FMwenge 2. Could be confirmed by seeing what’s happening in similar frontier markets, DO. Do you have that view?

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean Bigger issue is the media didn’t ask him more questions on the spot.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean @SentimentalCook Well put, DO

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@JitoKayumba A better measure of revenue collection is in the context of % of GDP, which has also improved btw. But it’s important to use measures that best reflect what the revenue means for the average man. The recent IMF staff report provides some more context on this.

[Dean N Onyambu @InfinitelyDean]

Is the USD/ZMW bottom in, after the first wave of activity following the newly-mandated currency directives?

Time will tell.

Technically, USD/ZMW remains bearish, which is bullish for the kwacha because USD is the base currency. On this chart, the 50-day simple moving average sits around 22.28, while the first Fibonacci retracement of the move from the March 2025 high near 28.91 to the recent low around 19.40 comes in near 21.64.

From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, until 21.64 is decisively broken to the upside, the structure remains intact. If you use moving averages as regime change signals, then 22.28 is the level to watch, with an important caveat. Moving averages are dynamic and change daily, while 21.64 is a static reference level. Over time, the 50-day average can drift lower and even move below the retracement level, which is why the order and type of these levels matter.

Bottom line. The kwacha remains technically strong, and USD/ZMW still sets up better as sell USD on rallies rather than buy USD on dips.

Not investment advice. Educational only. This is not a directional view on the kwacha. It is an explanation of technical meaning and levels.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean Thanks, Dean, very important point you raise.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean Very underreported story here

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean Couldn’t agree more; every money markets dealer knows this, time to execute through the ACI.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean Great work here, Dean..👏🏿

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean @SentimentalCook Gross vs Net 🙂

[Dean N Onyambu @InfinitelyDean]

One chart has sat with me all weekend.

It shows the share of total bank lending in Zambia that is absorbed by the top 20 largest loans. For most of the last decade, those 20 exposures have taken more than 50% of the entire loan book. In recent years, the ratio has sat closer to 60%, with peaks near 70%.

In a system where money supply is already small, and where a large share of bank assets is locked into government securities, this matters. We do not only have concentration in corporate lending. We also have concentration in lending to the government.

The sovereign piece is the classic sovereign nexus story. Banks hold sizeable holdings of government paper and, at the same time, carry large exposures to a narrow set of corporates that depend on that same state and that same macro cycle. The corporate piece is harder to excuse. It points to a deeper comfort problem. Shallow credit information, weak enforcement, narrow collateral, and a small formal sector have all pushed banks into the same behaviour. Everyone wants to bank the same corporates. Very few are building the next ones.

At the micro level, that behaviour is rational. At the macro level, it produces stagnation. Monetary policy struggles to reach households and firms. New sectors cannot emerge. Credit becomes a privilege for the familiar, not a tool for growth.

The solution is architectural. Better credit information. Real movable collateral enforcement. Scaling up and properly capitalising the SME credit guarantee and risk sharing structures that are already in motion, including the planned K5 billion SME credit guarantee fund, so that they sit at the centre of bank strategy rather than at the margins. Supply chain finance used at scale, with large corporates acting as anchors for smaller suppliers in a more deliberate way. Greater use of true loan syndications and club deals so that no single institution carries an outsized share of any one large borrower, while well-structured SME guarantee funds and risk-sharing pools take more of the smaller, diversified tickets.

Tomorrow, I will share a longer piece on what sovereign models really price into Africa’s risk premium. Later in the week, I will share an updated article in the Zambia Monetary Policy series titled Structure Before Sentiment.

Bankers, policymakers, and entrepreneurs in Zambia: what would you change first to shift lending beyond the usual 20 names?

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean Thank you DO

[Dean N Onyambu @InfinitelyDean]

The market has entered a season where architecture matters more than ceremony. We have applauded long enough. The real work is construction. That is the heart of Structure Before Sentiment. If Zambia wants deeper markets, credible price discovery, and stronger liquidity, we must build the architecture that holds them together.

ACI Zambia Financial Markets Association sits at the centre of that future. It anchors credibility, shapes standards, strengthens governance, and carries the professional integrity of the market. This is not a platform for visibility. It is a responsibility. It demands leaders who understand both the market and the moment. Leaders who build structures rather than chase relevance. Leaders who create value rather than recycle interest.

Chileshe Moono (@chilemoono7) represents that direction. Country economist. Corporate dealer. Credit risk analyst. Investment analyst. A full cycle of experience that gives him market depth and institutional understanding. He has the technical grounding to anchor the next phase and the discipline required to move the association from training into respectable visibility and meaningful economic contribution that moves needles. Steady. Structured. Consistent. Someone who has contributed to the market and understands the weight of institution-building.

He is not stepping into this moment for accolades. He is stepping into it with a record of contribution and a clear sense of the work ahead. This is the mindset required for the next chapter of ACI Zambia.

This is the season for architecture. And Chileshe is built for that responsibility.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@FMwenge @ngomabest196 Remember your macros ba Felix (C,I,G,X-M: very possible to even get to 6.0%.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean Watch your VI..🙂

[Dean N Onyambu @InfinitelyDean]

In essence, the copper to gold ratio, swap spreads, and USD/CNY are singing the same tune. Balance sheet defence is in charge. Until that chorus changes, stay tilted toward safety over cyclicals and pay close attention to USD liquidity stress.

Not investment advice.

@chilemoono7

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@Kampamba_Shula @InfinitelyDean The assumptions must've been different at the time, but if you look at the numbers in % of GDP terms, they are largely in line.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean @Kampamba_Shula Exactly always important to reflect numbers in % of GDP.

[Dean N Onyambu @InfinitelyDean]

Best to look at it from a percent-to-GDP angle. The 36 percent rise to ZMW 253.1 billion from ZMW 217.1 billion in the 2025 budget sounds large only if you focus on the numerator. Once you factor in a larger GDP, the expenditure ratio holds steady.

Simplified (estimated figures): In 2024, approved spending of about ZMW 177.9 billion represented roughly 27 percent of nominal GDP of around ZMW 689 billion. The 2025 budget of ZMW 217.1 billion stays in that same range against a projected GDP of about ZMW 808 billion.

Quick math (for illustration): The 2026 proposal of ZMW 253.1 billion keeps the ratio close to 27 percent. If ZMW 253.1 billion is 27 percent of GDP, the economy would need to reach about ZMW 937 billion. From an estimated ZMW 808 billion in 2025, that implies nominal growth of roughly 16 percent. With real growth projected around 5 to 6 percent and inflation near 9 to 10 percent, that projection is consistent.

The large number in kwacha reflects an expanding economy rather than fiscal excess. The key tests will be revenue collection, debt service discipline, and execution quality. If those hold, the 2026 plan is ambitious but sits well inside a sustainable macro frame.

[Mr. Moono @chilemoono7]

@InfinitelyDean Of course, there’s a country that comes to mind..🙂