Chokepoint

瓶颈派 | AI的卡脖子环节和卡在上面的股票：芯片 HBM 光模块 电力 太空。每个数字都有出处，不喊单。AI chokepoints, numbers over vibes. not financial advice

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

瓶颈派 五条信条

1 钱永远流向最卡脖子的那一环。先是存储，再是光模块，下一个可能是电
2 看押金，不看口号。买家开始预付钱给供应商的地方，才是真瓶颈
3 每个数字都要有出处：财报 公告 政府数据。没出处的数字一律当噪音
4 不喊单。瓶颈派只告诉你哪里卡住了，买不买你自己定
5 回撤是门票。光模块中位数个股今年最大回撤50%，拿不住的人进不了瓶颈派

NPC看新闻标题，瓶颈派看10-Q附注

认同的 评论区报个到
#瓶颈派 #美股

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@Kog49tK 谢谢来问。两家都在光模块这条线上，值得盯的是出货节奏和毛利率。看好不看好，还是对着财报自己算一遍比较踏实。

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

新号刚起步 求互粉
每天更新AI产业链：HBM 光模块 燃气轮机 卫星
留言或关注都回关
#互关 #互粉 #AI

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@Patterns0001 thanks for stopping by. the source matters as much as the multiple. the 16x only means something once you know whose forecasts it sits on.

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

国产 AI 芯片这轮涨价，数字不小。据 Reuters 9 月 10 日援引知情人士报道，Huawei 和 Cambricon 的报价都在两个月内被上调了。下面 5 条是报道里的具体数字，收藏慢慢看

1. Huawei Ascend 950DT 加速卡报价超过 250,000 yuan（$37,255），比两个月前给客户的报价高 20% 到 50%，要看合同条款。
2. Ascend 950PR 从 2026 年初的约 60,000 yuan 一张，涨到超过 80,000 yuan。
3. 910C 板卡从约 90,000 yuan，涨到超过 110,000 yuan。
4. Cambricon 还在规划中的下一代芯片，暂名 690，报价比两个月前上调 20% 到 30%。
5. 以上都是报价。Reuters 说涨幅取决于合同条款，买方要看自己签的是哪一种。

#AI #半导体

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@youlixiang4 回关啦 多交流

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@TRACELESSAI 回关啦 置顶那篇卡脖子地图欢迎转发

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@JSCC2020Lee a model can be retrained. a gigawatt campus needs power, permits and construction before the first gpu runs in it.

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

Muse Wonder was trained at Meta's gigawatt scale Prometheus data center. $META's moat is the campus, and the model comes second. #AI

[amit @amitisinvesting]

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Meta $META unveiled Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, calling them its most capable AI models to date for personal AI agents and software development. Trained at Meta’s gigawatt-scale Prometheus data center, the models combine Active Memory, which carries relevant context across conversations, with Active Focus, enabling agents to persist through complex tasks, explore alternative approaches, and confirm important actions with users. Meta said the models deliver state-of-the-art performance across agent, memory, and coding benchmarks, while supporting professional workflows involving software engineering, legal, financial, and health tasks. Muse Wonder is available today through the Meta Model API and Muse Code, while Muse Wonder Full is available to Muse Code subscribers and will also roll out to the Muse app, alongside stronger safeguards for privacy, malicious instructions, and misuse.

2. Broadcom $AVGO CEO Hock Tan warned that many investors are approaching AI like “casino gamblers,” arguing that capital is increasingly being deployed without a clear understanding of the industry's long-term economics. Tan said the next major constraint on AI may not be chips or power, but capital, as AI developers must prove they can generate sustainable returns from the enormous investments being made today. He also cautioned that some companies are overspending on AI initiatives and emphasized that long-term winners will be those that can turn AI deployments into profitable businesses rather than simply building larger models.

3. The S&P 500 $SPY traded just 18.3M shares today, marking its lowest full-session trading volume since December 26, 2003.

4. Market breadth continues to weaken even as the S&P 500 remains near record highs. 84% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading at least 10% below their all-time highs, despite the index sitting just 0.2% below its record close. Real Estate has been the weakest sector, with 97% of its stocks down at least 10%, followed by Materials (96%), Utilities (94%), and Consumer Discretionary (92%), while Energy (62%), Healthcare (70%), and Information Technology (72%) have held up relatively better. Overall, 59% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 20% from their highs, 41% are down more than 30%, and 17% have fallen by 50% or more, highlighting the growing divergence between the index and the average stock.

5. Ondas $ONDS and Palantir $PLTR announced the launch of Regna AI, a new company focused on developing specialized AI models for governments and enterprises that want to retain full control over their models, data, and infrastructure. Initially wholly owned by Ondas, Regna will leverage Palantir’s AI platform and model-training infrastructure, with Ondas serving as its first customer. The company's initial focus is on intelligence, surveillance, and defense, developing AI models designed to run directly on drones, ground vehicles, and other edge hardware, even in environments with limited or intermittent connectivity. The companies said initial customer deployments are expected to begin over the coming months.

6. Since the start of 2024, a basket of 42 AI-related stocks has generated 67% of the S&P 500’s total price return, contributing roughly 22 percentage points of the index’s 33% gain over that period. By comparison, the remaining 458 companies have contributed just 11 percentage points. Those same AI leaders have also driven 58% of the S&P 500’s total earnings growth and 81% of all capital expenditure and R&D growth since the beginning of 2024, leaving the rest of the index responsible for only about 20% of investment growth. Meanwhile, just 29% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index over the past 3 years, approaching the roughly 25% participation rate seen during the Dot-Com Bubble.

7. Google $GOOGL is simplifying the Gemini experience by moving toward a single prompt box with no modes or toggles, according to Google VP Josh Woodward. He said the goal is for users to simply tell Gemini what they want and have it automatically determine how to complete the task, reflecting a broader shift in AI user interfaces across the industry. Woodward also hinted that Google is building a “personal, proactive, powerful” version of Gemini, designed to leverage users’ Google data and work more intelligently across their digital lives. He added that Google has heard user requests to make Gemini work more seamlessly with the information they already store in Google services, saying “watch this space” as new capabilities are expected to launch soon.

8. Microsoft $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella announced the company's largest commitment yet to custom AI silicon, saying the Maia chip family will begin scaling to multi-gigawatt deployments starting next calendar year and become the primary inference platform for Microsoft's products and services. Microsoft also introduced Maia 300, which Nadella said delivers 40% more tokens per watt than leading GPU-based systems. The company is already deploying Maia 200 across the U.S., Europe, and Australia, achieving up to 1.7x more tokens per watt for workloads powering Teams and Copilot. Nadella said Microsoft's strategy is to continue improving full-stack efficiency while also incorporating the latest innovations from across the broader AI ecosystem.

9. Global physical gold-backed ETFs attracted a record $30.7B of inflows during Q3 2026, marking the largest quarterly inflow on record. September alone saw $10B of inflows, following $17.9B in August, the second-largest monthly inflow ever recorded. As a result, global gold ETF holdings increased by 67 tonnes in September to a record 4,256 tonnes, surpassing the previous high of 4,176 tonnes set in February. Year-to-date, gold ETFs have attracted $38.5B in inflows—equivalent to 226 tonnes of additional gold holdings—with demand positive across every region. UK-listed funds have led country-level inflows with $9.5B, overtaking China, highlighting exceptionally strong global demand for gold.

10. Anthropic said it has reduced the amount of data harvested through AI distillation attacks by approximately 90–99% after deploying new anti-distillation defenses. The company said Zhipu attempted to distill capabilities from Claude Fable 5, but switched to an older Claude model after encountering stronger cyber safeguards. Anthropic also revealed it has turned away meaningful revenue and trillions of tokens' worth of paying traffic from suspected distillers, prioritizing model security over short-term revenue. The company said preventing unauthorized model distillation is a key national security issue, as frontier AI capabilities can otherwise be replicated at a fraction of the cost and integrated into foreign AI systems.

11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.8M contracts, $TSLA with 1.5M contracts, $META with 1.3M contracts, $MU with 1.2M contracts, $AAPL with 1.1M contracts, $SPCX with 998K contracts, $INTC with 778K contracts, $AMZN with 680K contracts, $MSFT with 648K contracts, and $AMD with 598K contracts.

12. BlackRock has downgraded U.S. equities to Neutral while turning more constructive on U.S. Treasuries, according to a new outlook from the BlackRock Investment Institute and CIO Rick Rieder. The firm upgraded short-term Treasuries to Overweight, raised long-term Treasuries to Neutral from Underweight, and cut U.S. stocks to Neutral after maintaining an Overweight stance for an extended period. BlackRock emphasized that the move reflects near-term risk management, not a change in its long-term outlook, stating it remains bullish on AI and that its core investment convictions are unchanged.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

TrendForce 估 256GB iPhone 18 Pro 的内存占 BOM 从一年前约 10%，升到 3Q26 约 34%，1H27 会超过 40%。$AAPL 的毛利迟早会被这笔账找上 #AI #美股

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

Talen sold future PJM capacity revenue to a third party for $1.5B, then spent it on buybacks. The 8-K shows the initial delivery was about 4.0 million shares. The AI power trade is paying shareholders before it builds supply. $TLN

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@wy_ones 哈哈，先到账确实方便。好不好看，还是得看后面是谁买单。很高兴你来聊。

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@fan_zhengjia 已关 互关一下

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

Hock Tan 说 AI 投资人像赌徒。接着他说 $AVGO 借给了 Anthropic $42B。这桌上坐的人远不止投资人。

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

还只会聊英伟达和AI泡沫，盯着K线的人，已经落后了。瓶颈派现在盯的是光模块。$LITE 的 FY2026 10-K 里，最大客户占净营收 26.6%。公司原话是 demand is outpacing our current supply，已经开始做供给分配了。 #美股 #AI

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

好家伙...

FERC 主席 Laura Swett 在 PJM 可靠性备用采购那份命令的附议意见里写道：“a deeply flawed, eleventh-hour procurement mechanism with billion-dollar implications for consumers.”

FERC 9 月 29 日把这套采购暂停五个月，生效日定在 2027 年 2 月 28 日。PJM 原定 9 月 30 日跑的采购也没跑。新资源要在 2032 年 6 月 1 日前商业运行。电力是 AI 数据中心的卡点之一，这笔账最后会落到 consumers 身上。

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@InsomniaLK 回关啦 置顶那篇卡脖子地图欢迎转发

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

蓝V互关..专门挖AI供应链卡脖子的数据：存储 光模块 电力 算力，每天都发硬核数字
关注必回关
#蓝v互关 #交朋友 #美股

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@Orca6699 谢谢你回来看。想聊哪个卡点的数字，直接说就行。

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@liangbuyong 已fo 互关

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@Pengchenop @vinaoxllll 已关 互关一下

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@bryce456663 @bwfli1 followed back

[Chokepoint @ChokepointPT]

@bryce456663 @bwfli1 你那边限制解了再回关就行，内容随时欢迎来看。