chonchito

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@KarlWhelanUCD @PlusEVAnalytics @DoctorRazzWSOP Someone on the Internet gives you an opportunity to massively improve your model with a simple fix. Absolutely no need to be upset.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@cmain7 @thatstandard Sure but don’t you think we should give more weight to a 80% favorite week4 rather than a 80% favorite week18?

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@PlusEVAnalytics A random drunk guy would have told you a wrong answer in less than 20 seconds too, just like AI. I would take the 10-20 hours of human analysis over that.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@PlusEVAnalytics @StalkThePace It might not be as negatively correlated as it looks but would you say it's positively correlated or at least neutral? I would guess/argue it's not and by quite a bit still. Not a fan, GL though :)

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@thebeaglebets @PlusEVAnalytics It might have been his plan. Definitely not a smart one. Philly had 60% ownership, Baltimore had 25%. What's the point of taking Dallas? You can grab a shitty team hoping the favorite to lose anyweek of the year. You can also do that with the Chiefs or Lions btw.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@KirkEvans0 During 3 random NBA games, you'll have ~600 shots, ~300 makes. The hardest make maybe a well defended long fadeaway, not far from 15%eV too. I'd guess the distribution of catchability has a lot of 0% and 80%+. I can see having only a handful of 5-15% pass, none of them completed.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@KirkEvans0 @RufusPeabody Why not beting one unit (or maybe just a couple) to win 0.02ish units? If you do that on tens of golfers/drivers/horses every week on +EV bets, it may add up pretty quickly without being that hard mentally.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@d_feustel @adambjorn American odds don't help the transparency too. -110 X -110 = +264, Sure... Now that SGP are so popular, let's go decimal everyone!! 1.9*1.9 =~ 3.6 sounds much cleaner.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@FlashscoreES @dolivaresn Saben si las estadisticas de "ataques" y "ataques peligrosos" regresaran pronto en flashscore? Les necesito mas que a mis hijos.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@spanky @daliman13 @robpizzola @CirclesOffHQ solid tweet that trigger us candidate imo.
I love @spanky but that makes 0 sense. It's not like the scared money guys will pick the Giants or something, they'll still play the biggest favorites while shitting their pants.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@NateDuncanNBA @DannyLeroux Really nice podcast as always. You mentionned that no team really tried to improve their +/- for the tiebreaker. The Kings actually did try to score until the very last second against the Spurs. Though, it might have been because the betting spread was -7.5 though. :)

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@PlusEVAnalytics The finals will be on neutral court in Las Vegas. I feel like it will matter more than you might guess. :)

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@CirclesOffHQ What percentage of your personal betting income comes from sharp books?

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@haralabob If everyone in the world thought Marcus Smart was the best defender in the world and he's now a close 2nd, he should go from 100% to 0%. The issue is the poll itself, not the voters. A huge shift in % doesn't mean a huge shift in opinions.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@WastedGolazo Please create your own content!! I bet I could listen to you even if you only display the line movement for every game.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@LProbabilistic @WastedGolazo 2.15 for the under and 1.79 for the over? You know those 2 events are supposed to add up to exactly 100% right?

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@WastedGolazo What would you say a penalty should worth if you're trying to be predictive. 0.8 is too high but it shouldn't be 0 either, right?

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@PlusEVAnalytics It's funny how growing up with decimal odds makes those big favorites much less scary. If a decimal odds is 1.02, we're like "well I'm probably gonna win a few cents, why not". If the -5000 odds is displayed, for some reason you feel like you have to risk your whole bankroll.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@betstamp I love him, once in a lifetime prospect but I'd say ~+130, and I feel dirty for going that low.

[chonchito @chonchitoooo]

@johnhollinger By 9!!!