I was interviewed recently with a guest confronting my assertion that gold outperformed all major Asset classes. He was suggesting we look at the past 25 years. Have a look 👀
Liar liar pants on fire.
For real 130s, tell your staffer to pull Moody's showing $130+ billion in war costs, and ask another how much Jane Street burned north of $130 million shorting oil for you in just one futures roll.
Liar liar yields on fire.
Wheat prices are surging... but there is more to come
Russia and Ukraine account for ~30% of global wheat exports, and both are blowing up each other's export capacity...
Meanwhile, US wheat production is at its lowest level since 1971.
At the same time, we have a very strong El Niño, which heightens the risk of extreme droughts and lower crop yields.
Brace for higher food prices.
When both 2s & 10s drop together and the yield curve steepens (10–2 rises)...
It's historically followed by important market turmoil Happened in 2000, 2008 and 2020.
It had a chance of happening not soo long ago, but not anymore... for now.