@LorenzoARK@RyanWatkins_ The STRC product by design can drop below $100 and not be broken. It traded it's first 6 months below $100. This was only a few months ago. It's obviously not ideal, but they can keep paying dividends and wait for the market to settle.
The market reaction here is fascinating. A week ago, everyone panicked because Saylor sold a tiny amt of BTC and broke the never-sell narrative. Now, the emerging consensus is that he needs to sell billions of BTC to prevent a death spiral.
I think this reflects the market transitioning their view of Strategy from a levered BTC proxy to now viewing it as a digital credit company first. That means the USD reserve, STRC price, dividend burden, debt positioning, and future issuance capacity are the most important variables (vs forever holding BTC).
I agree the cleanest path is to aggressively rebuild the USD reserve. That is what helped STRC achieve par consistently at the beginning of this year.
My concern is the middle-ground outcome - Saylor sells some BTC, raises the rates on STRC, and tries to wait for BTC to recover. That avoids him selling BTC aggressively, but it probably does not restore confidence in the flywheel.
The dividend math itself is manageable, and he may choose to try and wait out the storm. The confidence problem is bigger. And now the market has quickly flipped and wants to see if they are willing to monetize BTC to defend the credit stack.
@blknoiz06 I think the reality is MSTR is transitioning from buy/hold BTC forever to a digital credit platform first, which requires selling BTC at times to manage their risk. It's going to take time for the market to digest that shift, especially after Saylor's history of never sell
@jdorman81 The real mistake was depleting USD to retire their debt. The establishment of the 2 year USD reserve is really what reduced the volatility in STRC. They then compounded the issue with the BTC sale
@hillery_dan@JoshMandell6 I would imagine that STRC will be the primary funding source for Bitcoin purchases during bear markets while MSTR ATM will be primary funding source during bull markets. Very complimentary
@Grayscale's ZCash Trust ($ZCSH) is trading at a 25%+ discount to NAV. With the current SEC, I'd expect Grayscale's ETF application to make it through, which would collapse the discount. Seems like a great way to play the privacy theme with some extra juice.
@Grayscale@bitwise@CoinDeskMarkets Conclusion – instl rails still haven’t embraced the theme. It feels to me like the gap between crypto-native enthusiasm and inst’l adoption is unusually wide here, which makes for interesting investment opportunities. NFA, DYOR as always
@mert has me thinking seriously about the privacy investment theme for the first time since 2017.
Price momentum is obvious with $ZEC and $XMR, but what’s more interesting to me is how little of this has shown up in regulated / instl infrastructure.🧵
@Grayscale@bitwise@CoinDeskMarkets Regulated Futures are similar: no privacy coins on Coinbase’s CFTC-regulated futures platform, and obviously none on the CME.
It’s super interesting to see the real time convergence of crypto and tradfi. Who wins?
TradFi - crypto ETFs, treasury companies, crypto company IPOs, crypto-backed mortgages, crypto-backed credit products, stables-powered payments
Crypto - 24/7 tokenized equity trading, high yield savings accounts, lending markets, stables/payment platforms, prediction markets
The build up to Bitcoin and Ether ETPs felt monumentous. It drove the entire crypto market narrative with all eyes watching. Although subsequent launches have had material inflows, it's felt surprisingly low energy. 1.5 years ago we couldn't have dreamed of 100+ crypto ETFs !
2026 PREDICTION: More than 100 crypto-linked ETFs will launch in the U.S. In October 2025, the SEC published generic listing standards, allowing ETF issuers to launch crypto ETFs under a general set of rules. A clearer regulatory roadmap in 2026 is why we see the stage being set for “ETF-palooza.”
@JSeyff, how’s that list looking? 👀
A new era of onchain liquidity is coming.
We’re teaming up again with @StateStreetIM to launch SWEEP — a tokenized private liquidity fund built for the next generation of cash management*.