Chris Kemenesi

Real estate developer reading the whole board — politics, finance & the monetary system. I share how these come together in ways other don't see till too late.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

@cbcwatcher Are Canadians really thinking Trump won’t end USMCA? It’s basically a forgone conclusion at this point unless Canada except terms the US could not have dreamed of getting before. The deal is dead and so is Canadian industry for a long time.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

Do you think the canceling of USMCA will help lead to Albertan independence?

[Nick Sortor @nicksortor]

🚨 President Trump says he's considering having the trade deal with Mexico and Canada TERMINATED

Good! We're TOTALLY SICK of these countries taking advantage of us.

"I'd rather NOT have the agreement, but I may sign it. We do better as a country if we DON'T have an agreement."

"So yes, I'm thinking about maybe we won't be able to make a deal."

"I would rather NOT have the USMCA. The primary reason I wanted it [in my first term] was because there was no way out of NAFTA, which is the worst trade agreement ever made, like EVER."

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

@Bloke_Baz I’m sure the few thousand millionaires SpaceX just made agree. Those poor janitors and receptionists, if only they got paid more money instead of stock options, they could have bought more SpaceX when it went public.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

What is SpaceX worth? Whatever people will pay for it.

Why would people pay for it at all? Billions of people have spent 20 years watching the world bet against Elon Musk and Elon keeps on winning.

Maybe, just maybe, they want a little taste of that winning too.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

This is the game of nations people don’t know to look for. The energy shock was a known factor by the US and is part of Trump and Bessent’s larger strategy. In the short term it means bond rates rise but as more countries struggle to defend their currencies they will beg for the Mar A Lago Accords.

And the US debt? These major countries will start being forced to buy 100 year or ideally perpetual bonds with insanely low rates. Why would they do that you ask? Trade, security, dollar swap lines and access to the massive tech we will only give out to some.

The world is reshaping and the role the dollar pressure is making on that front is going unnoticed by too many.

[Peter St Onge, Ph.D. @profstonge]

Japan just blew $100 billion in 6 weeks trying to defend the yen. That's half a trillion in US terms.

The problem is Japan's doing it by dumping US Treasuries when Washington needs buyers for $12 trillion of debt.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

This is what driving your country into the ground looks like. He leads anti American chants and makes his whole mission about defying Trump and America. Once he is face to face he tries to spin his backstabbing (also terrible for Canada deal) and something Trump and America would like.

I’m sure Mark Carney absolutely cared about the good of the US. He can’t see that he has sealed USMCAs fate with this behavior. Sadly the doomer boomers throwing elbows up in Canada has sealed a horrible future for their children and grandchildren.

[Jasmin Laine @JasminLaine_]

Prime Minister of Canada caught on a hot mic with President Trump.

He can clearly be heard saying: “less than 3% of our product”, “49,000 cars”, then while making a cut off gesture with his hands, “capped”, and “I thought you’d actually like that”, before walking away.

Presumably this is in relation to Chinese EV’s.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

This is a reality of many different techniques in higher versions of finance. Large funds will buy land with cash and shares so the property owner becomes a captive investor in the fund. What did it cost the fund to get land? Just the cash because the shares are made out of thin air. All of these securities have value but because their existence can be created out of nothing you are in essence printing value out of thin air.

At the core of our entire financial system is money, dollars, that are literally lent “into existence” by banks. It’s the ultimate version of creating value out of thin air and yet it happens with every new mortgage, auto loan, business loan, etc. What’s amazing is how most people don’t realize that this is how the monetary and financial systems work and still talk about debasement of currencies and gold as a hedge.

It’s why I hammer on the need to learn the way the market works to anyone who will listen to me. Money and the markets are much more like this SpaceX acquisition than people realize.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

SpaceX just bought a $60 billion company without spending a dollar.

The deal for Cursor, the AI coding tool, is all stock. No cash. SpaceX prints new shares, hands them over, done.

Now connect it to what happened last week.

SpaceX went public by floating just 4% of itself. 556 million shares against 13 billion. The tiniest free float a mega-cap has ever listed with. Index funds were forced to buy it. Retail piled in. Tiny supply, enormous demand, and the stock rocketed past $200.

Here's the part that should make you sit up.

The price SpaceX pays for Cursor is set by its own share price in the seven days before closing. The higher the stock, the fewer shares it has to print to cover $60 billion.

So the engineered scarcity that pumped the stock now makes the acquisition cheaper. The squeeze pays for the shopping spree.

A company losing $4 billion a quarter is now buying AI startups with paper it manufactured out of a 4% float.

This isn't aerospace. It isn't even AI.

It's the finest financial engineering of the century, and it's only getting started.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

Elon spent the last 20 years building the value that was realized in a single day. Do not fool yourself into thinking it was all so sudden, the market has willfully paid for the privilege of owning a piece of just some of the value Elon has spent much of his adult life building.

[shirish @shiri_shh]

Warren Buffett watching a rocket guy out-earn his entire 70-year career in a single trading session😭

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

This is very important. At $65 dollars the average price of gas will be $2 in the US. Not only is this important for the mid terms but it also means the inputs people have been worried about like plastics and fertilizer (linked to LNG) will go back to being massively affordable.

Don’t think too short term, focus on the trends.

[Clay Travis @ClayTravis]

The price of oil and gas has plummeted yet again today. Down to $75. It was $68 when the war in Iran began. Prices will be plummeting at the pumps in the days and weeks ahead. Democrats are furious this is happening.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

@VivekGRamaswamy Says the guy who basically told the world (on CHRISTMAS DAY!) that Americans are lazy losers and we should be thankful for all the foreign workers keeping our way of life alive.

Please spare me.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

SpaceX is an industry of 1. There is no company that is even close to what it was capable of doing 2-3 years ago let alone today. Now flash forward and just imagine ten years from now:

Literally hundreds of cold fusion powered data centers using quantum computing and broadcasting the computation for entire nations without almost any on the ground infrastructure, just simple starlink like connections.

In a world with ai, this will not just be fantasy but we control the fates of entire nations and continents.

So is it already worth the price of Apple? Yes, because in three years the amount of utility it will provide the world and revenue it will generate will make this stock price look like pennies.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

I’m seeing European and Asian leaders absolutely freaking out that the future is clearly already passing them up. This technology is not the bubble that the broader public tell themselves.

This instead will be not only a massive productive launch pad for the US but the control of the computation and the technology will be a near insurmountable moat for any geopolitical competition.

Add in quantum computing and cold nuclear fusion, tech that the US also holds the monopoly on and the next 100 years is the American Century.

[Mo @atmoio]

I had Fable build several projects for me. I'm disturbed by what I saw.

Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:54 - Game 1: Token Mania
2:03 - Game 2: Geodrift
6:22 - Game 3: Aetherbound
7:30 - Open world exploration concept
10:18 - App 1: Piano Book
14:14 - "The Window Has Closed" article commentary

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

This is also just the beginning of the productivity boom in the US. With AI it also means we will have much less need for foreign low skilled labor if any and the massive capital and brain drain to the US over the next 10 years will be absolutely historic!

Capital flows first, then those investments increase productivity. That increase productivity allows for higher wages. If we can get our immigration situation right, as we have so far, we could see a decade plus of double digit wage growth with near zero inflation.

[Stephen Moore @StephenMoore]

Capital is voting with its feet.

France, Germany & Spain are now net exporters of wealth. Britain alone lost 16,500 millionaires last year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. gained 7,500 millionaires and now hosts over 1/3 of the world’s $30M+ individuals!

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

Another way ai and sensors will massively increase the productivity of traditional sectors. This is a tractor using sensors to detect what is a weed and what is the plant being protected and automatically shooting a burning laser only on the weeds.

These sorts of tools are not fiction or just in trial runs but already being rolled out by major companies. Imagine how much more yield we can get with 90% less chemicals in just ten years?

How is this another reason why this is a boon for the US and not other economies? This tech is still expensive and will need capital to deploy it and at the same time the world is coming up short on capital as it increasingly flows into the US.

[Danny Bernstein 🍇🥬 @bernsteind]

laser weeding in broccoli.

real-time AI decision making at the edge. whistles and purrs. no chemicals.

from our friends @carbon_robotics.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

Alex is exactly right. You can also add in that America has energy independence which Europe, India and China do not have. America also has the largest capital markets with record setting capital flows coming into the US market.

Once the factories and onshoring starts to come online (many are just breaking ground) the economic center of gravity in the US will be like a world wide black hole. The whole of the world will have no choice but to bend to the American Empire because there will be no other alternative.

[Alex Finn @AlexFinn]

If Fable 5 remains America only, it will lead to the largest exodus from Europe in history

Anyone who used Fable in the 3 days it was live knows it's the most powerful technology made in the history of our species

They know that those with Fable will have unlimited economic power. Those without Fable will be fighting with two hands tied behind their back and their legs frozen in a block of ice

Without Fable how could you keep up with someone who has it? How could you beat someone who can build products 50x faster than you. It’s technological steroids. It’s like De’Aaron Fox playing basketball against Michael Jordan. It’s no competition

In time Europe will realize all of this regulation was a mistake. They’ll do a massive deal with America to get access. Multi hundreds of billions of dollars

How could the current path go any other way?

Fable 5 is the greatest leverage a nation has ever had. The beginning of technological government intervention has only begun

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

1. Ai productivity boom
2. Reduction in population both in skilled (retirements) and unskilled (deportations and less visas)
3. Heavy demand for skilled white collar and trades blue collar

All add up to

Low unemployment and massive wage growth.

We see more than just the seedbed of this already but it takes time to build new systems and new factories and to shift overseas production here. The US will not only boom but the growth story of our competitors is over.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

David Friedberg: The AI Jobs Panic Is a Crock of Sh*t

Why? The revenue potential outweighs the cost savings by 100x.

“There is no job loss with AI. I've said it a thousand times, and I will say it again, and again, and again.

What I see on the ground, and what I've seen at dozens of companies, including my company that I run, there are two sides to a business.

There is revenue and there’s costs.

On the cost side of the equation, AI can be used to reduce humans doing things that cost money, to some extent. The effect there, I would argue, is nominal.

The real opportunity with AI is on the revenue side, where suddenly one engineer can do 100x or 1000x what they used to be able to do, meaning you can make more products at your company, whether those are agricultural seed products, or boats and ships, or software for companies, or clothing, or what have you.

Because of AI, everyone has the ability to expand their revenue base to create more products, and that is the foundation of good economic prosperity. It is called productivity. We can grow productivity in this country with AI.

So where I see AI being used is on the revenue side 100x more than the cost side. And in that equation, people are hiring like crazy. We cannot hire enough people.

I just had a review meeting with my product and engineering team two days ago, and they're like, ‘We want to add an extra 15 headcount to our engineering squads because we have all this opportunity to do stuff that we couldn't otherwise do.’ So we are going to hire more people.

And to Sacks' point, we are seeing that show up in the jobs numbers. The idea that AI is going to destroy jobs is a Luddite idea that is being disproven every single day, and I see it on the ground.

It is only a matter of time before people wake up to this and they realize that this narrative that they've all been sold is a crock of sh*t.”

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

This is exactly right and just the beginning of people waking up. The US has secured the western hemisphere with the Shield of the Americas. This new peace deal may very well add another dozen members to the Abraham Accords and bring about peace in the Middle East without the US being the primary enforcer.

One of the key things people are missing is how Bessent and Trump have masterfully strong armed the entire world through the Iran war using the dollar as a weapon. The world was already short on dollars for international trade with all the tariffs and trade deals. With critical oil prices going up, all of which are denominated in dollars, the massive squeeze has caused China to have to limit power and fuel and shorten factory work hours.

Other powers like the ME, India and the EU are scrambling for dollars while massive dollars flow into the US through foreign investments and oil profits. We just saw the South Koreans agree to manipulate their currency to weaken it against the dollar, a first step towards the Mara a Lago accords and the new monetary order.

The world is absolutely not going to a multipolar world. This MOU is the absolute beginning of…

The peace of the American Empire

[Farzad 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 @farzyness]

My theory is that the American empire is JUST getting started.

US has a stranglehold on Space with SpaceX, which is the next frontier for defense/war. It has a comically large lead. No one will be close for at least 20 years.

It is the leading power in AI by far - both in models and chips. China is catching up fast, but the US has an inherent mechanism that will increase the likelihood that it will win in the end - a free market + capitalism + free speech.

A free market + capitalism allows for brutal competition between companies. Free speech allows for AI models to be maximally truth seeking, which means that AIs CAN and WILL BECOME smarter than humans to the point where they can tell the truth about its leaders.

This is literally impossible in China. Try having a Chinese model that says Xi Jinping is corrupt. Good luck with that.

Then, you have a country that has more guns than people and surrounded by two massive oceans and two friendly neighbors, which means any sort of kinetic take over of the country is literally impossible.

Not to mention the US has BY FAR the best and strongest military.

The only way adversaries can hope to defeat the US is by tearing it from within by pitting us against each other. This is why it's virtually guaranteed that all the division/hatred/polarization you see within the country is fomented by China/Russia Psy Ops + propaganda efforts.

I'm not saying these aren't naturally happening in spots - America is far from perfect - but it would be naive to think our adversaries aren't pouring millions of gallons of fuel on a fire.

As long as the American public a) has the ability to exercise its free speech b) has a protected 2nd amendment c) capitalism and free markets continue to function and d) the populace is aware of how awesome America really is, it is literally impossible to stop the US's trajectory to global domination in the coming decades, especially as China's demographics continue to collapse.

It's the bottom of the 9th, the game is tied, and the US has the bases loaded. It's a 3-2 pitch.

All we need is a home run, and we win the rest of the century.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

@marklevinshow A little thing called narrative control. By not releasing the MOU you keep people guessing and since there has never been a good reason to trust Iran and less and less each time their media makes a claim, people only listen to what Trump says. It’s pretty simple Mark.

[Chris Kemenesi @ChrisKDev]

The Mara a Lago accords have already started taking shape. The new monetary world order has gained its first participant. This is, in the long term, as big a deal as the MOU announced today. Most don’t know why because they have 1950s understanding of how the monetary system works.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

S. Korea Agrees With US to Cooperate on Weak Won: Yonhap