Olivia
Online
The Parachutist ⚪️⚪️🔴 🇸🇪
@ChristopherMPS
Vi är våra egna begränsningar. Kraftdjur: Räv. Action Man. Singulär. Döpt, gjort lumpen. Ovanlig men viktig biotyp, den nordiska äventyraren
Kurrekurreduttön
Joined March 2020
418 Following
357 Followers
13.2K Posts
Pinned Tweet
Jag hade en sån här på 80-talet, köpte den begagnad för 4000kr sålde för 3000kr eftersom jag ville ha en med midi istället. Priserna numera ligger på +80000kr för en begagnad. Så det var ju dumt gjort.
Olja är upp
BREAKING: Israel says Iran has launched a wave of ballistic missiles toward Israel moments ago.
This marks the first Iranian attack on Israel since the ceasefire agreement began on April 8th.
Så då är det igång igen
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC is now ready to execute "Operation True Promise 5" against Israel tonight, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having authorized the full-scale resumption of war and Iran's Supreme National Security Council convening an emergency session, saying a "painful and decisive response" will come in response to Beirut strikes, per Iranian state TV.
Iran has issued an evacuation warning to all residents in northern Israeli territory to immediately leave, with coordinates of Israeli targets now transferred to missile units.
Cruel summer
Jeff Currie thinks we are sleepwalking into one of the biggest commodity shocks since Covid and the market is still pricing it like a headline risk instead of a physical crisis (Save this).
He calls it molecular contagion and last week, jet fuel shortages were concentrated in Singapore, where prices spiked to roughly 230 dollars a barrel.
This week the same pattern has shown up in Rotterdam at around 220 dollars and in Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Australia which means the dislocation has gone intercontinental.
In his words, there is no longer any meaningful spread between Singapore and Rotterdam, no spare barrels to re route, and no policy lever that can solve the problem in the short term.
Currie’s core point is brutally simple, you can print money, but you cannot print molecules.
The futures curve, the paper market is still trading around 100 dollars a barrel.
The physical market on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz is telling a completely different story, with Oman crude spiking to 173 dollars and Asia bound blends effectively clearing around 130 dollars a barrel.
Refined products like jet fuel and diesel are already spiraling north of 200 dollars a barrel in multiple hubs.
That is the tale of two markets he is talking about.
On one side you have screen prices that look volatile but manageable, helped by algorithmic trading, cross commodity hedging and the lingering belief that high prices fix high prices before anything breaks.
On the other side you have physical supply chains that are already breaking, tankers being diverted, refineries bidding against each other for the last uncommitted barrels, and regional shortages that cannot be solved with central bank liquidity.
As Spengler pointed out, amazing and difficult as it is to conceive, they don't actually understand causality. Things do not link from one to another causally in their minds, at least for most of them.
Ja här var det smältdegel till vansinnets gräns minsann, blev faktiskt lite hungrig ändå, ska planera in en cheat-day på sunkhak, underskattat, dessutom numera typiskt svenskt och modernt
Folkabussen är cool, de andra ser för taskiga ut
Car design in 2026
Kanske det blir lite bull för en del nästa vecka, vem vet.
Sälj allt, köp fyrverkerier å glass ist
BREAKING: Iran says negotiations have now fallen apart completely, seizing all messaging channels with the US following new US strikes on commercial vessels in southern Iran and the ongoing Israeli military's invasion of southern Lebanon, per Fars.
Iran also says talks were already fully deadlocked over the US refusing to release $24 billion in frozen funds without nuclear concessions in return. Iran is also rejecting Al Arabiya's claim today that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium to a third country, calling it "incorrect" with nuclear discussions being "fundamentally not on the current negotiation agenda."
Should have listened to this guy when I was 13.
Om man flyttar pengar blir det tillväxt
🚨 WARNING: AI BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO BURST
Microsoft gave OpenAI $13 BILLION.
OpenAI sent it back through Azure.
Microsoft booked it as revenue.
Amazon and Google are running similar loops with Anthropic while marking up huge paper gains from AI valuations.
OpenAI is spending over $60 BILLION a year on compute while generating only $25 BILLION in revenue.
Ray Dalio has warned that late stage bubbles are driven by fake flows, not real economics.
That is exactly what this is starting to look like.
Svensk polis monitorerar antagligen med fasa situationen i England, det räcker med så lite som att popo handbojar en knivhuggen oskyldig och låter honom blöda till döds under spydiga glada kommentarer för att detta hånande även ska drabba Sverige
Officer: "Help me, ive crashed"😳
me: "I dont think you have, mate..."🥴
Exakt summa 309? Man får se.
Silver will soar as high as $309 by the end of the year says Bank of America's Metals Desk 🚨🚨 Dear God 🤯
Det här var det mest åttiotaliga jag sett https://t.co/LyR5fZbvRB via @YouTube
Den här reklamen är tidlös, särskilt om man som jag haft 4 Alfa Romeo
ART BERMAN'S BASE CASE: OIL SPIKES TO $160 THEN STABILIZES PERMANENTLY AT $110
Petroleum geologist Art Berman built a probability model for the current oil crisis that rejects political theater and quick deals. He treats every forecast as a distribution of outcomes because the situation has no historical precedent. His base case carries the highest weight and it points to a permanent break from the energy world of 2025.
ART BERMAN'S PROBABILITY MODEL
➡️ He maps best case, base case, and worst case scenarios instead of offering single predictions because no one can know the exact path through unprecedented disruption.
➡️ The best case assumes a perfect deal by early June yet still delivers only 50 percent of normal flows by the end of 2026 due to demining, insurance delays, and weeks of tanker queuing.
➡️ Even that optimistic path leaves three quarters of 2026 operating under severely reduced energy supplies with catastrophic economic consequences.
THE BASE CASE THAT DRIVES EVERYTHING
➡️ Iran has no incentive to ever fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and will likely maintain control indefinitely.
➡️ Restarting shut-in production faces massive lags from damaged reservoirs, lost investment confidence, and infrastructure that may never fully recover.
➡️ The global system faces irreversible change with no realistic path back to 2025 economic conditions.
THE OIL PRICE PROJECTION
➡️ In the realistic base case oil prices will almost certainly spike into the 150 to 160 dollar per barrel range by summer.
➡️ Extreme prices trigger demand destruction that pulls Brent back down to around 100 to 105 dollars.
➡️ Prices then slowly rise and stabilize in the 105 to 115 dollar per barrel range through 2027 and likely beyond.
WHY THIS SHOCK IS 60 TO 99 TIMES FASTER
➡️ The rate of supply loss is 60 to 99 times faster than the greatest previous oil shocks in recorded history.
➡️ No rapid solutions like vaccines or policy reversals exist this time to cushion the blow.
➡️ Inventories have masked the crisis so far but those savings are running out fast and the full impact is coming.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Art Berman's model shows the world just suffered its greatest energy blunder in modern history by jeopardizing the entire global economy with one move.
Oil will spike hard then settle into a permanently higher range because the old supply system is broken beyond repair.
#OilPrices #ArtBerman #EnergyCrisis #OilShock #HormuzBlockade #DemandDestruction #NewOilNormal
HT: YouTube @PalisadesRadio @aeberman12
En sann mästare
師匠が変な技に目覚めると弟子は大変なのまだ面白い
Precis, är man inte en international drug smuggling crime lord så är man en loser, tänk på det barn
Why GTA 6 is a test from GOD
“Anybody who is excited about GTA 6 but is not working hard in the gym and tryna get rich so they can live GTA 6 for real is a loser”
when you see Victoria Secret stock pump +50% today because it changed its ticker from $VSCO to $VSXY (aka “Very Sexy”)
Bara så ni vet
Last Seen Users on Sotwe
Most Popular Users
Elon Musk 
@elonmusk
240.2M followers
Barack Obama
@barackobama
119.3M followers
Donald J. Trump
@realdonaldtrump
111.6M followers
Cristiano Ronaldo
@cristiano
109M followers
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
107M followers
Rihanna
@rihanna
97.3M followers
NASA
@nasa
92.1M followers
Justin Bieber
@justinbieber
90.6M followers
KATY PERRY
@katyperry
86.9M followers
Taylor Swift
@taylorswift13
80.7M followers
Lady Gaga
@ladygaga
72.2M followers
Kim Kardashian
@kimkardashian
69.4M followers
YouTube
@youtube
68.6M followers
Virat Kohli
@imvkohli
68.6M followers
Bill Gates
@billgates
63.4M followers
The Ellen Show
@theellenshow
62.5M followers
CNN
@cnn
61.9M followers
Neymar Jr
@neymarjr
61.2M followers
X
@x
60.9M followers
Selena Gomez
@selenagomez
59.9M followers