ChrisTech

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@ShanghaoJin @bboczeng 應該拿SOX 去比吧。今年的槓桿不在Nasdaq

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@cherryPayment 業績發佈日，必定會放量啊。雖然漲很多感覺有勢

[Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin]

告诉大家一个不幸的消息

我不知道高盛说momentum factor说“deleveraging nearing its conclusion”结论怎么来的

我单纯看GS的数据似乎并得不出这个结论，暂时谨慎采纳他们看法吧

因为没爆仓去杠杆不够彻底，需要等平空之后观察市场卖盘情况才知道

[Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin]

一群野人在头领的带领下去猎杀野牛。拼尽全力做空猎杀，准备分尸的时候，高盛把整个牛都让头领Citadel吃独食了

所有人都精疲力竭，还握着空单，没有肉吃 = 空头平不出来了

Boss快打完的时候，爆变成自己满血的队友。高盛和Citadel从队友瞬间切换成对手盘了，这时夺路还逃不出来

最近市场跟行业无关

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@ShanghaoJin 問題是兩個月後，要還有錢進場…

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@ShanghaoJin @TiezhuCrypto 2027的CAPEX 一定高吧，畢竟內存太貴了。往後scenario 應該有二，1. Hyperscaler 的CAPEX 慢下來，其他公司/政府補上，2. Hyperscaler 的CAPEX 維持不變/growth 減少，其他公司/政府瘋狂建設。
第一個情況的話會有一陣大跌，但半導體的生意應該還是不受影響直到2030左右。

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

Let see how far can we go from here.

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@ShanghaoJin @jimmyhuli 所以其實是去槓桿，讓業績說話，把價格打到認為閉上眼買都可以的程度，才買對吧？我本來認為���股價應該要推升，才更容易融更多的資金來支付這筆帳，讓韓國的冤大頭推高一點，但他們卻把他們幹掉了。會不會是Wall St 本來持股不夠，要推倒股價自己進場？

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@PandaCakeSaber @ShanghaoJin @jimmyhuli 資本支出本來就是不可能一兩年收回的吧？只是因為以前軟件行業以前不是資本密集的公司，captial intensive 的公司像半導體，一向都是以起碼數年作為單位來投資CAPEX 的啊，還要產能爬坡到理想的yield 才能收回。

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@PandaCakeSaber @ShanghaoJin @jimmyhuli 不對啊， 據我理解，Anthropic 的盈利應該是從Fortune 500 那些大企業，政府，等等而來的。你說的左腳踩右腳的是Anthropic 的CAPEX 和 Nvidia 的銷售吧？如果只��這個閉環還說得通。事實是金融業自己，像GS，Citadel， 還有SaaS 也因為AI 而增長加速了。

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@ShanghaoJin @jimmyhuli 當然現在市場的確如你所推演的去運行，我也從難以置信到現在強迫相信了，因為不相信，回報也回撤了很多，所以我也想知道更多你的看法。

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@ShanghaoJin @jimmyhuli 其實我不明白帳為何算不過來。之前說大模型公司在蝕本做，現在Anthropic 都能盈利了，連最多現金，而且不碰科技股的巴郡都投GOOG 了。GOOG，AMZN 等公司發債都能籌到天量資金，Covid QE 發的���從美債轉到AI 標的，應該已經足夠了吧？TSMC 都沒有擔心過客戶付不起錢，去增加CAPEX，Wallst 操心什麼？

[3X Long Labubu @labubu_trader]

SOX dipped to 11867 today, which is a critical low from 06/09 and 07/07.

I will give it 1-2 days to reclaim the 50d EMA. Otherwise, I have to stop out any non-Mag7 positions.

My thoughts are that semis should remain in a consolidation range instead of any directional breakout before the Mag7 ER, as bulls and bears are debating AI capex and ROI heavily with some balance.

Any breakout of the range before the Mag7 ER means the market has reached some weird consensus for reasons we don’t know, and we should be very cautious.

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@tuolaji2024 數量的話應該用800G 與 400G 比比較合理吧？

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

Goldman Sachs: June 2026 Update Supply/Demand

Compared to their May report, they have updated:

> NAND and DRAM from "tight" to "very tight" supply in Q1-Q2 of 2027.

> InP from "very tight" to "tight" in CY27

> T-Glass from "balanced" to "tight" in CY27.

Highlights:

> DRAM Pricing Surge: Like-for-like prices for DRAM are projected to skyrocket by 250–300% in 2026, with Average Selling Price (ASP) including product mix jumping 300–350%.

> Memory & T-Glass Supply Relief Delayed: The supply/demand balance for DRAM/NAND and T-Glass is expected to remain "Very Tight" longer than previously expected, extending all the way through Q2 2027 before potentially easing slightly to "Tight" in Q3 2027.

> InP Substrate: Like-for-like pricing for 2026 has been updated to 15–20%.

> Foundry (TSMC): Stays severely constrained through 2027.

> Advanced Substrates & Materials: ABF Substrate, PCB, and CCL face persistent, severe shortages. This is reflected in heavy price hikes, with CCL and ABF Substrate seeing price increases of 30–50% in 2026 and climbing even higher (45–60%) in 2027.

> Optical Components: Optical Cables and Optical Devices remain severely supply-constrained through the end of 2027, maintaining steady double-digit price increases.

> Global Power & Analog Semis: Shifting from "Balanced" or "Easing" in early 2026 to "Tight"by late 2026/early 2027. Note: Local China supply for these sectors is expected to remain "Balanced".

> Silicon Wafers (300mm): Starting out "Easing" in early 2026, but projected to transition to "Tight" by 2027.

> Local China Foundry & Equipment (SPE): Supply conditions for local Chinese foundries and Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment (SPE) remain mostly "Balanced" with minimal price fluctuations (0–5%).

> MLCC & Tantalum Powder: Enjoying an "Easing" or "Balanced" state in early 2026 before settling into a stable "Tight" market for the remainder of the forecast period.

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

@nft_hu A 股最近真的很穩，漲停兩天，���一點。尤其是AI 供應鏈，比美國那邊上下10% 好多了

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

China A shares are definitely more comfortable to hold than the US stocks. US stocks volatility is huge every day.

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

Must read for everyone
I agree with most points written in the article
Although, I disagree on CXMT points (they are quite active in 3D DRAM, and we may see results in 2028, capacity will also be greater than 500k WPM)
And lots of work is happening to reduce KV cache footprint (DeepSeek v4),
Expect the size of KV cache/token to go down but the volume of tokens generated/processed will be go up so much that it will make up for it
Jevon's paradox

[SemiVision 🇹🇼 👁️👁️ @semivision_tw]

ASMPT in Advanced Packaging CoWoS

Dual-platform equipment supplier across advanced packaging and SMT: ASMPT is not merely a traditional SMT equipment supplier; it also has strong semiconductor assembly and packaging equipment capabilities. Its product portfolio covers die bonding, flip-chip bonding, thermo-compression bonding (TCB), wire bonding, molding, SMT placement, inspection, and power module packaging. Strategically, ASMPT is extending its position from conventional electronics assembly into advanced packaging, AI servers, HBM, co-packaged optics (CPO), and silicon photonics (SiPh) packaging.

[ChrisTech @ChrizTechInvest]

Going for first hand Strait of Hormuz oil tankers’ flow report.