琶侃 Pak-kan

「來自原鄉的視野，航向世界的黑潮」

[琶侃 Pak-kan @chuanhao]

@sanguibee 感謝分享訊息

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The ratio of the US Stock Market’s Value to GDP (aka the “Buffett Indicator") has moved up to a new record high at 217%. That’s now more than 2 standard deviations above the long-term trendline.

Video: https://t.co/m42hGFIh7E

[琶侃 Pak-kan @chuanhao]

@Nobody197575 @PENGTAOGE1937 @PearlWh50384189 @TruthMedia123 哈哈 … 愛你的語詞，種花民族

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Now even the ZEW Index – a key gauge of investor sentiment toward Germany – is falling.
Despite the benchmark index Dax trading near record highs, investor expectations have slipped:
The expectations component dropped to 34.7
The current conditions assessment fell further into negative territory at -68.6
This suggests that investors are growing increasingly pessimistic about Germany's economic outlook, despite the stock market's apparent strength.

[豆豆 @yanyan420827]

这是日本参议院选举得票最高的议员北村晴男对石破茂的评价，也是对日本文化被民主自由摧毁的认可。

[豆豆 @yanyan420827]

民主体制是最大的忽悠骗局，是有史以来最腐败无效无能的政治体制
日本，二战后被短短的民主75年给拖进了泥沼，上千年耻感文化的武士道文化被消失，政客无耻至极
首相石破茂大选三次失败而强赖着不辞职，毫无羞耻，评为最无耻的政客
这可是破了日本人的体面和文化，以后的政客只会越来越无耻

[琶侃 Pak-kan @chuanhao]

@Nobody197575 美元的高利率會先搞死非美貨幣的國家

[琶侃 Pak-kan @chuanhao]

@Nobody197575 台灣2戰後是4萬舊台幣換一元新台幣, 這叫幣制改革不叫搶劫, 哈 ...

[热血汉奸吴三桂 @Nobody197575]

恐怕最后只能跪，不信拭目以待吧，我不好日本，跪惯了，改不了

[狐君 - Amor fati @Rationa51725786]

以色列为什么挑此时对伊朗下手？其实它赌的不是伊朗有无核弹或会不会报复
它赌的就是老美会不会介入？
以色列的情报机关肯定已经探到了川普没打算对伊动武
因怕美伊真的谈出些什么玩意儿来，于是铤而走险，先发制人，企图拖美国下水
内塔尼亚胡正面临贪腐指控，急需战争来维系执政
现就看川普的智慧了

[琶侃 Pak-kan @chuanhao]

@Nobody197575 台灣正在玩大罷免親中立委，所以，親中政客收歛許多，導致聚光燈照向這個滿嘴髒話的網紅。

[琶侃 Pak-kan @chuanhao]

@HeQinglian @RFI_Cn 台灣也是內部問題一堆，聽命於中國的在主導攤瘓台灣政府

[琶侃 Pak-kan @chuanhao]

@WallStreetMav Taiwan?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

We are setting the fundamentals for a strong dollar, a strong economy, and a strong stock market.

Investors need to know that the U.S. government bond market is the safest and soundest in the world.

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

Is China invading? :)

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Federal government workers down for 4th consecutive month from a record 2.413 million in the last month of Biden's administration

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Some have suggested that because China takes a very long-term view, China can ‘win’ a trade war with the U.S. which, according to the conventional view, is a much shorter-term player than China.

The problem with this assessment is that the longer the tariffs persist, the more rapidly every company that has a supply chain based in China relocates it to India, Vietnam, Mexico, the U.S. or some other country.

China has to understand this dynamic, which is why it should be highly incentivized to make a trade deal as quickly as possible. Unless it is clear that a company can continue to source from China on economically viable terms, it must leave the country.

The longer high tariffs persist, the greater the likelihood that no company can be confident it can rely on China for sourcing or production over the long term. This is true for US and non-US companies. As a long-term player, China must understand this dynamic.

The China tariffs are very damaging in the short term to companies that rely on China for a large percentage of their goods or for parts to make their products. This is particularly true for small companies who don’t have the wherewithal to weather the storm. If the tariffs were to persist, our government could provide loans to help companies manage their transitions out of China, but I don’t think this will be necessary.

The tariffs are similarly damaging for medium-size and large businesses, but their greater financial resources allow them to better manage the tariff burden until they can relocate production outside of China.

In light of the above, both China and the U.S. are highly incentivized to take the tariffs down to more reasonable levels — say 10% to 20% — as quickly as possible. The only thing stopping the reduction in tariffs to a more sensible level is the fear on the part of both countries’ leadership of looking weak.

A pause, however, would not be a sign of weakness because it requires both countries to take down their tariffs. It is just common sense.

Both countries know that the 145% tariffs have to come down now. They are just trying to manage the diplomacy in such a manner to make clear that it is a mutual decision as opposed to one country ‘going first’.

So let’s imagine the U.S. and China agree to a 180-day pause to allow for negotiations to take place.

Once the pause is announced, China would be highly incentivized to make a deal as quickly as possible, whereas we have time on our side. This is true because the longer the tariffs persist, the greater the reputational damage to China as a reliable country in which to do business, and therefore the higher the probability that US and non-US companies will leave.

A lower level of tariffs in the short term will enable companies to better manage the transition out of China. It is a near certainty they will leave unless and until a new and highly favorable deal is made with China. Even then, no company will be confident it can rely on China for a major portion of its supply chain. That cake is already baked.

There is no board of directors or management team who will ever again feel comfortable relying on China for a major portion of their supply chain. The damage has been done.

The only hope for China as a place to do business is for China to immediately come to the table and make a deal which provides permanent commitments addressing IP theft, forced technology transfer, market access restrictions, tariffs, and other barriers to doing business in China.

If instead China stubbornly decides to hold out and not negotiate due to pride or other emotional issues, China will suffer that much more severe and permanent economic consequences. In China holds out, I expect we will launch a loan program to enable US companies to better manage the exit from China.

Time is the friend of the US and the enemy of China’s in this negotiation.

A pause and negotiations should therefore begin soon.

Tell me why I am wrong.

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Never forget

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

Six months ago on the left
This week on the right

I look forward to the October cover