CIH Cattle Team

The Cattle Team at Commodity & Ingredient Hedging (CIH).

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🐂 COF: Spring supply hole—or cattle delayed?

The bullish read: 90-day placements are down 7.9% YoY, pointing to fewer spring finishers. Retention and a smaller feeder supply could keep placements soft.

The counterpoint: COF is still +0.7%, while cattle on feed 150+ days are up 18.3%.

The state data make the tension clear:
📍 Nebraska: 90-day placements −130k | COF 150+ +270k
📍Kansas: 90-day placements −150k | COF 150+ +150k

Are placements lower because feeders are scarce—or because yards are full?
#cattle #beef

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🐂 Packer Margins & Slaughter

Packer margins remain positive at an estimated +$119/head, with cash cattle steady and the cutout slightly higher WoW.

Yet weekday slaughter has slowed this week.

🔎 If the economics still support production, how much of the reduced kill is temporary vs. packers managing throughput?

🔎 Do we see a larger Saturday kill to make up some of the lost production?

Saturday slaughter may give us another clue on how aggressively packers want to run at current margins.

#cattle #beef #ag

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

@MeatBorsa exactly! do heavy weights start getting discounted more? do higher COGs lower weights? can we keep importing beef like we are? lots of questions, not as many answers right now!

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🐂 COF: Spring supply hole—or cattle delayed?

The bullish read: 90-day placements are down 7.9% YoY, pointing to fewer spring finishers. Retention and a smaller feeder supply could keep placements soft.

The counterpoint: COF is still +0.7%, while cattle on feed 150+ days are up 18.3%.

The state data make the tension clear:
📍 Nebraska: 90-day placements −130k | COF 150+ +270k
📍Kansas: 90-day placements −150k | COF 150+ +150k

Are placements lower because feeders are scarce—or because yards are full?
#cattle #beef

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

Feeder Cattle Index -$0.11
CIH Est: $336.86; Previous: $336.98
1,978 head dropping off (11% of index); 4,415 head traded (21%)
#ag #cattle #feedercattle

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

@MeatBorsa Looks like weights have offset ~3% of the decline in slaughter. fed slaughter down 7.5% YTD, domestic beef production down 4.5%. Then if you add in imports net production is down <1%

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🐂 Cattle Slaughter — WTD

Through Wednesday, cattle slaughter is running 299k head, down 14k (-4.5%) WoW and 52k (-14.8%) YoY.

Monday started stronger WoW, but Tuesday and Wednesday both came in 8k head below last week.

🔎 With tighter cattle supplies and reduced packing capacity, the pace of slaughter remains an important piece of the cattle/boxed beef balance.

Does the kill pick up into the end of the week — or are we settling into a lower weekly run rate?

#cattle #beef #ag

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

@MeatBorsa that's the question! hole in the spring - or filled with heavier placements + feeders from Mexico? Is Apr too discount to Jun if there's a hole? Or not discount enough if we smooth out or fill the hole?

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

@Rob89935 well feeder supply outside feedlots was slightly higher in Jan and slightly lower in Jul...is it sustainable to continue to see lower placements? unless we are pulling more on the feeder supply by retaining more heifers than expected?

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

@KenSchaus interesting - if that's the case, could we see more + heavier placements at some point?

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🚛 Diesel Hits Record High — Another Headwind for Cattle Producers

⛽ $6.53/gallon — up 74% from a year ago.

📈 The YoY increase has been exceeded only in 2022 since 2000.

Higher diesel prices mean higher costs to haul cattle, move grain, and transport beef.

🐂 With cattle feeding margins already under pressure, how much additional cost can the supply chain absorb — and who ultimately bears it?

#Cattle #Beef #Diesel #Ag

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

Choice Cutout +$2.53 DoD to $378.89

DoD increase driven by Rib and Loin, Chuck and Rounds down DoD

#cutout #beef

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

@sd1459 2 things to watch. Mexican imports - currently 1k/day with other ports opening soon. If we keep 1-2k/day then we're looking at 60-120k more feeders Oct-Dec. Placements - lower b/c we don't have the feeders or yards are too full? Latter meaning larger placements are coming...

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🐂 COF: August Placements Hit a 31-Year Low

📉 August placements totaled 1.617M head, down 9.2% YoY.

📊 The smallest August placements since at least 1996, falling below the previous low of 1.632M head in 2015.

With fewer cattle entering feedlots, what does this mean for fed cattle availability in early 2027?

#cattle #ag

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

Feeder Cattle Index -$0.71
CIH Est: $338.74; Previous: $339.45
5,801 head dropping off (27% of index); 3,788 head traded (19%)
#ag #cattle #feedercattle

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

Choice Cutout +$4.42/cwt to $376.35

Chucks and rounds contributed the most to the increase - with retail ready chuck rolls + 16.5% DoD

50's trim continues to fall and is trading 45% lower YoY

90's trim rebounded after the sharp drop on Friday - trading back to $419.83 vs. $345.42 on Friday

#cutout #beef #cattle

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🐂 COF: Where are we adding days on feed?

While August placements fell to a 31-year low, our estimated 180+ day inventory tells another story.

📈 Nebraska: +125K head YoY

📈 Texas: +115K head YoY

📊 Combined, these two states account for +240K head of the increase.

With slaughter capacity already facing headwinds, how quickly can these cattle move through the system?

#cattle #ag

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🐂 Herd Rebuilding: Drought Remains a Major Hurdle

🌵 81% of U.S. beef cows are in drought — up from 79% last week.

📊 The latest Cattle on Feed report showed fewer cattle entering feedlots, but that doesn't automatically mean more females are being retained.

🔎 Are producers beginning to rebuild, or is drought keeping the industry in a holding pattern?

Retention may be emerging. Meaningful expansion is another question.

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

Feeder Cattle Index -$3.05
CIH Est: $339.45; Previous: $342.5
3,610 head dropping off (19% of index); 5,942 head traded (28%)
#ag #cattle #feedercattle

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

Feeder Cattle Index -$0.69
CIH Est: $342.48; Previous: $343.17
3,634 head dropping off (20% of index); 4,309 head traded (23%)
#ag #cattle #feedercattle

[CIH Cattle Team @CIHCattleTeam]

🐂 Cattle Feeding Economics: Pressure Mounting?

📉 Cattle futures have moved lower again. How are the underlying economics adjusting?

🔴 Live Cattle: Futures remain below projected feeding breakevens. How will this impact forward feeding decisions?

🟢 Feeder Cattle: After narrowing, the gap between projected cash values and deferred futures is widening again.

🔎 Will feeder cash prices adjust to futures, or will the disconnect persist? What does this mean for feeding margins and future placements?