Cipher Vance

Onchain options trader | Volatility, positioning & asymmetric setups | Sharing lessons from the market.

[WIRE News @_wirenews_]

*EXCLUSIVE: OPENAI ACQUIRES BIOTECH STARTUP AS AI RACE MOVES INTO DRUG DEVELOPMENT - AXIOS

[WIRE News @_wirenews_]

*ANTHROPIC TO SPEND MORE THAN $600 BILLION ON COMPUTE, DRAFT S-1 SAYS - - WALL STREET JOURNAL

[WIRE News @_wirenews_]

*SPACEX 3Q SPACE REVENUE $1.77B, EST. $1.43B

[WIRE @wiretrading]

Seven more companies have objected to OKXICE tokenising their shares, including $MSFT, $GOOGL, $GS and $QCOM.

That's 16 objections now, up from nine just a few days ago.

Losing Microsoft and Alphabet is a serious setback. These big names could bring significant trading volume to a new 24/7 venue. Without them, OKXICE faces a much harder task attracting liquidity.

[WIRE @wiretrading]

Salesforce shares fell as much as 4.9% after announcing its acquisition of Braze.

$BRZE went the other way, gapping more than 50% higher when trading resumed following a news-pending halt, repricing towards Salesforce's $47.50-per-share cash offer.

[WIRE News @_wirenews_]

*SPACEX 3Q NET INCOME $4.40B, EST. $1.88B

[Cipher Vance @CipherVance]

$TSLA earnings tomorrow. Curious what the options market is charging for this one. A strong opinion on Tesla is easy to find. A price worth paying to express it takes a bit more work. #TSLA #OptionsTrading

[Cipher Vance @CipherVance]

$NFLX reports today. Before looking at calls or puts, I’d check how much movement the premium already pays for. You can get the earnings reaction right and still be disappointed with the trade. #Options #Earnings

[WIRE News @_wirenews_]

*U.S. PPI: +1.3% M/M (EST. +0.6%), +6.3% Y/Y (EST. +5.3%)

*U.S. CORE PPI: +5.0% Y/Y (EST. +4.4%)

[WIRE News @_wirenews_]

*JUST IN: @RIPPLE PRIME LAUNCHES RWA PERPETUAL SWAPS FOR INSTITUTIONS, OFFERING 24/7 EXPOSURE TO 100+ REFERENCE MARKETS ACROSS EQUITIES, ETFS, METALS, ENERGY AND FX.

$XRP

[WIRE News @_wirenews_]

*ANTHROPIC’S IPO VALUATION EXPECTATIONS DROP FROM $2 TRILLION TO $1.5 TRILLION

*SOME INVESTORS ARE CONSIDERING A $1.5 TRILLION VALUATION FOR ANTHROPIC’S UPCOMING IPO, DOWN 25% FROM EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF $2 TRILLION.

[WIRE @wiretrading]

The push for 24/7 tokenised US stocks is meeting resistance from the companies themselves.

Nine companies have objected to having their shares traded on OKXICE, including $CRWV, $AVGO, $APP and $RKLB.

Under the SEC's new framework, issuers have 30 days to block tokenisation on the proposed venue.

Turns out giving companies a veto over onchain trading changes the equation.

[WIRE @wiretrading]

Tesla's Roadster demo kicked off Thursday night at 8:55pm ET.

$TSLA initially sold off towards $360 before reversing and climbing as much as 4.18% from the news timestamp.

All before Friday's regular US market open.

[WIRE @wiretrading]

Anthropic is reportedly offering Blackstone a yield of more than 10% on $9bn of chip financing, backed by five years of lease payments.

We're watching this closely, particularly after $CRWV lost around 25% this week amid growing concerns over debt-financed AI infrastructure.

[WIRE @wiretrading]

@BlackRock's "Machine-Native Economy" research makes a prediction that goes well beyond AI agents paying for services with stablecoins: computing power could become a tradable financial asset.

And the market is already taking shape.

CME has developed futures tracking Nvidia H100 and B200 GPU rental prices, with each contract representing 730 GPU-hours. The initial launch was postponed pending regulatory review, but forward pricing data is now being introduced.

This has significant implications for AI infrastructure financing.

Companies are borrowing billions to build data centres, with future GPU rental income supporting the economics of those investments. But GPU generations turn over quickly, and rental rates can fall long before the debt matures.

A liquid compute futures market would allow operators to hedge those prices and give lenders an independent benchmark for valuing future revenues.

Our prediction: compute futures will become an important indicator for AI infrastructure valuations, particularly companies like $CRWV whose economics depend heavily on monetising expensive GPU capacity.

The spread between H100 and B200 rental prices could eventually tell us a great deal about where the AI hardware cycle is heading.

[WIRE @wiretrading]

https://t.co/gDvcRru0A5

[Cipher Vance @CipherVance]

$GME has an interesting date coming up: the $32 warrants expire October 30.

Curious how positioning develops into it. A deadline gives traders something to watch, but it doesn’t tell us which way the stock goes.

Anyone tracking the options?

#GameStop #Options

[Cipher Vance @CipherVance]

JPM Coin went live on Ethereum today for institutional clients. Wonder how far it eventually gets into collateral and settlement. Being on the same chain as an options venue doesn’t mean you can use it there.

[Bitcoin @Bitcoin]

$81,979.48

#Bitcoin

[Derive.xyz @DeriveXYZ]

Another billion-dollar week.
$1.07B notional traded on Derive. Options leading the way 🚀