Mike Crosby

Thought Leader, technology advisor, Executive Director B2B /Consumer Technology - over 30-year history of building market leading technology businesses

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

* ADOBE - 'BUY NOW PAY LATER' IS EXPECTED TO SEE USAGE HIT ALL-TIME HIGH ON CYBER MONDAY IN US, CONTRIBUTING $782 MLN IN ONLINE SPEND, UP 18.8% YOY

@Reuters #BNPL

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

@charliebilello https://t.co/rIvxT8eSMe

[Lord Nefty @LordNefty]

@charliebilello Weird… FRED says that households have less “savings” than pre-pandemic.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US households still have an estimated $433 billion in excess savings remaining from the 2020-21 stimulus programs.

[Steven Dennis @StevenTDennis]

GUSHER🛢️📈: The United States is producing more crude oil than at any time in history: 13.2 million barrels per day.
It was 10.9 the week Biden took office.
The pre-COVID all-time high was 13.1.
It was ~5 when Obama took office.
https://t.co/nFK77j4BKO

[N Suresh @NSuresh_ECW]

@KobeissiLetter Savings rate at 3.9% which is close to historic lows.....

No wonder that the number of people working 2 full time jobs has spiked up..

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The average payment on a new home is now at a record $2,900/month.

The average house is now renting for a record $1,900/month.

The average new car payment is now at a record $740/month.

The average used car payment is now at a record $530/month.

The average student loan payment is now $500/month.

The average gallon of gas is now nearing $4.00 again.

The average household credit card balance is now at a record $7,300.

The average household will have $0 of excess savings by the end of this quarter.

How can the average person afford to live?

[Mike Crosby @circana_Mike]

@KobeissiLetter Is it true the bill also includes an increase in their compensation?

[David Dierking @David_Dierking]

Of all the things that baffle me about this market, this might be the biggest one.

How in the world are high yield spreads going DOWN right now?

Consumers are running out of money to spend. Consumer credit is through the roof. Defaults are rising. Bankruptcies are rising. We've got a de facto recession in Europe. China is imploding. Student loan payments just restarted.

Yet investors are demanding LESS return for low quality bonds?

I don't get this at all. This looks like a setup for the end result gets really ugly.

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

UBS: “US consumers' Holiday season outlook is deteriorating .. The % of consumers who said they plan to spend less .. jumped 840 bps sequentially, while the % who said they plan to spend more rose only 340 bps. This 500 bps spread is the 2nd highest in 12 years.” $RLX

[Neely @NeelyTamminga]

Groceries and going out are the first line of defense.

In a related observation, a very well-established eating establishment near us dismissed their kitchen staff by 9pm (when they are known for keeping the kitchen open until midnight) on a Saturday evening because the restaurant was dead.

Slowly then swiftly.

[Arizona Cardinals @AZCardinals]

6️⃣

[Arizona Cardinals @AZCardinals]

JOSHUA DOBBS!!!!!!!!!!

[MarketWatch @MarketWatch]

Cisco to cut 350 jobs in latest round of layoffs https://t.co/mi1TV97sQM

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

Stunning. #JOLTS

[Steven Burke @StevenJBurke]

Here's a look at why @HPE CEO @AntonioNeri_HPE says the AI powerhouse is seeing a "wave" of AI acceleration, helping to fuel a whopping 122 percent increase in HPE GreenLake as a service orders. https://t.co/3HGrkvChot

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

GOLDMAN: “The share of US workers working from home (WFH) at least part of the week has stabilized at around 20-25%, below its peak of 47% at the height of the pandemic but well above the pre-pandemic average of 2.6%.”

#WFH

[Parker Ross @Econ_Parker]

More evidence to fade the 5.8% 3Q23 GDPNow estimate...

JPMorgan's daily consumer spending tracker through Aug 19 suggests retail sales have decelerated sharply across the board (aside from a surge in spending at gas stations). Control group retail sales are now estimated to have contracted -0.24% m/m in Aug, which would be a big downshift from 1.0% in July (vs JPM's July estimate of 0.79%).

This could reflect some give-back after a hotter than expected July, so smoothing over a few months may look less concerning but this is certainly something to keep an eye on.

More in the🧵on drivers of the slowdown

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

“.. astonishing.”

- @WSJ $NVDA

https://t.co/Gs0Yhh4wD0

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Credit-card balances surpassed $1 trillion for the first time last quarter, even as interest rates for credit cards reached a record high of 22.2% in May. https://t.co/SUxVGQDL2X