ConventionalSelf

Conventional Self

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

A legend. A calming voice of rational conclusions. Thank you @tastyliveshow @Tony_BATtista

[tastylive @tastyliveshow]

A message from Tom 🫳 🎤 🍒

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

🌐 Macro Pulse 9/26/25:
Markets = Risk-On ⚡️
Vol = Expanding (low) 📈
$VIX 16.7 → creeping toward 20.7 resistance.
Theme: Geopolitics + Inflation 🌍🔥

➡️ Favor defined-risk spreads, trim undefined.
Watch 20.7 VIX → regime shift.

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

📰 Macro Brief (Sep 25, 2025)
•Risk-on but cracks showing 👀
•VIX 16.4 → expanding off lows; 20.7 = regime alarm 🚨
•Gov’t shutdown + labor softness fueling “jobs + recession” theme
•Play defined risk until vol breaks 🔑

Links:
👉 Shutdown
👉 Cyclical Value

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

📊 Market Check (9/23):
•Risk-on bias ✅
•Vol expanding but still low ⚡️
•$VIX at 16.1, pushing above 20d SMA 👀
•Fed cuts = bullish? Not for dividend stocks 🚨

Defined-risk trades > naked risk right now.

#Stocks #VIX #Options

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

🚨 Macro Pulse 9/22 🚨
Fed cut 25bps → Risk-On 🍾
AI leads, breadth weak ⚖️
VIX creeping up (15.6) w/ trend expanding 📈
Next test: 20.7 ⚠️
Playbook: favor defined-risk short premium (verts/condors) but hedge — vol can flip fast.

#markets #VIX #Fed

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

📊 Macro Pulse (9/19):
Risk-on ⚡ but VIX creeping up (15.6, ADX>25 → trend forming).
Jobs + inflation still the theme. Fed hinting future cuts fuels bids, but valuations in focus.
👀 Watch 20.7 on $VIX — break = regime shift.

#Markets #VIX #Macro

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

🚨 Macro Pulse 9/18/25:
Fed cuts to 4.00–4.25% ➝ Risk-on but inflation still hawks 🦅
VIX 15.3 near support, ADX rising = vol may wake up ⚡
Low vol = weak premiums → favor defined-risk spreads
Trigger: VIX > 20.7 = regime flip 🔄

#markets #VIX #FOMC

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

🌍 Macro Pulse (Sept 17, 2025):
•Risk bias: Favor defined
•Vol regime: Expanding from low
•VIX: 16.4 → eyeing 20+ breakout
•Macro: Neutral, Fed & inflation dominate headlines

⚠️ Fragile calm → tape primed for vol expansion.

#markets #VIX #FOMC

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

🌐 9/16/25 Macro: Risk-Off ⚠️ — Fed eyed for 25bps cut.
📊 $VIX 15.7 (low, expanding) → vol skew higher.
📰 Headlines: complacency on inflation, optimism masking cracks, momentum vs macro headwinds.
📉 Stay invested, but tighten sails.

#Macro #Markets #Volatility #SPX #Options

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

🌐 Markets are risk-on but VIX <15 says traders are asleep at the wheel.
Fed cut priced in, inflation sticky, AI tailwinds strong.
This is NOT clearance for naked risk — defined spreads only. ⚠️

#Macro #VIX #Options

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

📉 $VIX at 14.7 — contracting, hugging support.
📊 Macro: Risk-On, but fragile.
❌ No undefined risk in low vol.
✅ Stick to defined-risk: ICs, verticals.
⚡ Cheap convexity (debit spreads, calendars) offers hedge vs snap to 20+.
#vix #OptionsTrading

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

VIX at 15.2 📉 | Vol regime = contracting, low.
Macro = risk-on, Fed easing bias.
Defined-risk short-vol plays (condors/verts) > undefined in this compressed tape.

Calm = fragile: 1 data surprise (CPI/Fed) could snap it.

#Options #Macro #VIX

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

📊 Macro Brief — Sept 10, 2025
•Model: Risk-On, favors undefined
•Reality: VIX 15 & contracting → naked premium = no edge
•Divergence = ⚠️ signal

✅ Best: defined-risk shorts (condors/verts)
⚡ Or small long-vol bets into reversion

Don’t force naked risk in thin vol.

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

Macro Check (Sep 9, 2025):
Risk-On.
VIX 15.1 → low & contracting.
Jobs cooling → Sept Fed cut likely.
Vol sellers in control, but watch 18.5 VIX as inflection.

Playbook: short premium > long vol.

#Markets #VIX #Options

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

@DylanRatigan this is how we prevent the machines and killer drones @Tony_BATtista from taking over.

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

AI can produce.
But it can’t perceive.

You’re not valuable because of what you make
You’re valuable because you can value.

What happens when machines outperform us at output, but still depend on us for meaning?

🔗 Read: The Cognitive Value Thesis
https://t.co/QZuUXjJlGV

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

🌐 Macro Daily (Sept 8)
Risk bias: undefined setups
Vol: contracting, low ($VIX 15)
Posture: risk-on (Jobs+Fed) but growth narrow.
⚠️ Breadth risk high → cheap vol hedges, tough short-premium.
Play: Condors/verts + VIX calls.

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

@geoffreyhinton

This is how we stay in control.

The Cognitive Value thesis is obvious and has been staring us in the face.

🔗 Full thesis → https://t.co/QZuUXjJlGV

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

What if the money supply followed human life—no more, no less?

1 minted unit = 1 living conscious person
New unit at birth
Destroyed at death

That’s Population-Pegged Currency.

A financial architecture that aligns AI with human dignity.
Read the vision:
https://t.co/QZuUXjJTwt

[ConventionalSelf @ciscoperin]

🧠 If money represents value…

Why isn’t it tied to the thing that creates it?

Not gold. Not labor. Not code.

👉 Consciousness.

Full thesis → https://t.co/QZuUXjJlGV