Olivia
Online
Cisne Macroeconomics
@cisnemacro
Probability-Driven Macro Insights | Educating on Economics Without Bias: No Perma Bull/Bear | No financial advice
Joined February 2026
190 Following
86 Followers
197 Posts
Pinned Tweet
Watch out for the Euro! 🇪🇺
The euro has lost ground against the dollar since the Iran conflict heated up.
Go long EUR/USD
Why this play is asymmetric:
Europe is far more vulnerable to energy spikes than the US. America is a net oil exporter since years ago - so higher oil/gas prices hit eurozone inflation expectations harder and faster
The implications: The ECB is likely to turn hawkish first - pausing cuts or even signaling hikes, while the Fed stays on a dovish cutting path.
This flips the real-yield advantage toward the euro and draws capital inflow.
Short-term the dollar may stay bid as a classic safe-haven (especially if risk-off intensifies). But if the shock stays relatively contained (no full prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade), the setup strongly favors the euro longer-term.
Only two things kill the trade:
-A deep deflationary recession (full safe-haven dollar flight)
-Runaway inflation in Europe (negative real rates + loss of credibility 1973 style).
Both scenarios can be classified as tail risks, but should currently probably be hedged against.
Otherwise, diminished global trust in the dollar + ongoing debasement trends make this one of the cleaner macro setups right now.
What do you think?
Short the Dollar
The world is focusing on energy markets and observing a break in the historical correlation between the USD and oil.
Normally, the dollar and oil are inversely correlated (around -0.6 historically).
This was strongest when the US was a net importer.
Since the shale boom made the US a net exporter around 2015, the link weakened: a strong dollar hurts US oil exports, but without the old import pain, the relationship became less reliable.
However, as imports have crept up recently, the correlation has become more reliable again.
USD and oil are rising in unison now - but it is almost guaranteed that one asset will return to its old structure.
Let’s dissect two examples where this correlation broke to understand possible outcomes:
• 1973 oil embargo
The dollar had recently become a free-floating currency, but the US economy was perceived as weak, and gold decoupling made investors seek other reserves and hedges.
➡️ As oil spiked from the embargo, the dollar maintained its inverse correlation. It was not seen as a safe haven then, but gold had a phenomenal run!
• 1990 Kuwait invasion
Right after the Cold War, the US was seen as economically and politically strong. This kept the dollar higher, even after oil prices settled.
➡️ The dollar stayed strong in following years; the correlation broke, but the greenback came from a position of strength.
• Today
The dollar has taken hits, especially after tariff liberation day. M2 supply increased massively after Covid. The “sell the US” trade is gaining traction. Nations are diversifying reserves and reducing dollar dependency.
➡️ The notion prevails that the US will keep devaluing its currency and fail to outgrow its debt. Surging gold prices and low demand for US treasuries indicate declining trust in the greenback's dominance.
The dollar index $DXY has risen almost 2% since the first attacks on Iran.
Given the dollar's longer-term downtrend since April 2025, surging gold prices, US debt-to-GDP ratio and growth rate, and foreign central banks' sell-US trade, we map these scenarios:
• The dollar will likely behave like in 1973 and return to its downward trajectory, even independently of oil (75% likelihood).
• The dollar will continue rising and prove its safe-haven status, while oil drops first (20% likelihood).
• The dollar and oil will rise in unison as inflation expectations spike and the FED fights rising prices with rate hikes. This would likely trigger a recession immediately, but the dollar would be strongly sought after (5% likelihood).
⚠️ The time frame for such a trade should be long enough to let the conflict play out - aim for 3 to 6 months!
@Polymarket Now imagine how fast the ECB will pivot in case of a sustained oil spike 🇪🇺
https://t.co/vSRxSNTcPJ
Watch out for the Euro! 🇪🇺
The euro has lost ground against the dollar since the Iran conflict heated up.
Go long EUR/USD
Why this play is asymmetric:
Europe is far more vulnerable to energy spikes than the US. America is a net oil exporter since years ago - so higher oil/gas prices hit eurozone inflation expectations harder and faster
The implications: The ECB is likely to turn hawkish first - pausing cuts or even signaling hikes, while the Fed stays on a dovish cutting path.
This flips the real-yield advantage toward the euro and draws capital inflow.
Short-term the dollar may stay bid as a classic safe-haven (especially if risk-off intensifies). But if the shock stays relatively contained (no full prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade), the setup strongly favors the euro longer-term.
Only two things kill the trade:
-A deep deflationary recession (full safe-haven dollar flight)
-Runaway inflation in Europe (negative real rates + loss of credibility 1973 style).
Both scenarios can be classified as tail risks, but should currently probably be hedged against.
Otherwise, diminished global trust in the dollar + ongoing debasement trends make this one of the cleaner macro setups right now.
What do you think?
@Kalshi But stocks are close to an all time high, hence not an ideal risk/reward to go long here either way.
Better watch for asymmetrical plays in Forex. IMO, going long EUR/USD is one of the better plays right now
https://t.co/vSRxSNTcPJ
Watch out for the Euro! 🇪🇺
The euro has lost ground against the dollar since the Iran conflict heated up.
Go long EUR/USD
Why this play is asymmetric:
Europe is far more vulnerable to energy spikes than the US. America is a net oil exporter since years ago - so higher oil/gas prices hit eurozone inflation expectations harder and faster
The implications: The ECB is likely to turn hawkish first - pausing cuts or even signaling hikes, while the Fed stays on a dovish cutting path.
This flips the real-yield advantage toward the euro and draws capital inflow.
Short-term the dollar may stay bid as a classic safe-haven (especially if risk-off intensifies). But if the shock stays relatively contained (no full prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade), the setup strongly favors the euro longer-term.
Only two things kill the trade:
-A deep deflationary recession (full safe-haven dollar flight)
-Runaway inflation in Europe (negative real rates + loss of credibility 1973 style).
Both scenarios can be classified as tail risks, but should currently probably be hedged against.
Otherwise, diminished global trust in the dollar + ongoing debasement trends make this one of the cleaner macro setups right now.
What do you think?
@DeItaone Better go long EUR/USD!
The Eurozone is more vulnerable to external price shocks and thus start signaling rate hikes first!
….or the conflict is relatively quickly resolved and the dollar returns to its downward path!
https://t.co/vSRxSNTcPJ
Watch out for the Euro! 🇪🇺
The euro has lost ground against the dollar since the Iran conflict heated up.
Go long EUR/USD
Why this play is asymmetric:
Europe is far more vulnerable to energy spikes than the US. America is a net oil exporter since years ago - so higher oil/gas prices hit eurozone inflation expectations harder and faster
The implications: The ECB is likely to turn hawkish first - pausing cuts or even signaling hikes, while the Fed stays on a dovish cutting path.
This flips the real-yield advantage toward the euro and draws capital inflow.
Short-term the dollar may stay bid as a classic safe-haven (especially if risk-off intensifies). But if the shock stays relatively contained (no full prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade), the setup strongly favors the euro longer-term.
Only two things kill the trade:
-A deep deflationary recession (full safe-haven dollar flight)
-Runaway inflation in Europe (negative real rates + loss of credibility 1973 style).
Both scenarios can be classified as tail risks, but should currently probably be hedged against.
Otherwise, diminished global trust in the dollar + ongoing debasement trends make this one of the cleaner macro setups right now.
What do you think?
Here is a picture of me and my net worth. Im very wealthy as you can see.
@KobeissiLetter Retail or institutional, I think it does not matter for the following:
Since beginning of the Iran conflict there has been a massive buying of software stocks, $IGV is up 6% since then!
https://t.co/h0xdKs5bQL
📈Software is back!
Before the attack on Iran, Wall Street was completely risk-off on software.
Now, while everyone is predicting the end of the world or at least a full-blown 1970s-style recession, software sector stocks $IGV have risen about 6% since the first airstrikes on Monday!
Not only that, the buying was accompanied by heavy volume. Retail traders stepping in to buy the dip? Maybe - but these numbers suggest some institutional ramp-up.
From a macro lens, this is an indication of persistent risk-on mode while the overall narrative shifts to panic.
This is no prediction of a recovery in $IGV, nor will anyone deny the risk the oil spike poses.
Traders and investors should simply be aware of this type of activity and not miss a potential high-reward, low-risk trade!💵
@BRICSinfo Well, from the regime‘s perspective, what else could they have said, that was not showing signs of weakness or a lack of determination?
@silentcrowns @GnericGladhizA Yes, for agentic altcoins $FET directly comes to mind! I also see a big opportunity arising there
Short the Dollar
The world is focusing on energy markets and observing a break in the historical correlation between the USD and oil.
Normally, the dollar and oil are inversely correlated (around -0.6 historically).
This was strongest when the US was a net importer.
Since the shale boom made the US a net exporter around 2015, the link weakened: a strong dollar hurts US oil exports, but without the old import pain, the relationship became less reliable.
However, as imports have crept up recently, the correlation has become more reliable again.
USD and oil are rising in unison now - but it is almost guaranteed that one asset will return to its old structure.
Let’s dissect two examples where this correlation broke to understand possible outcomes:
• 1973 oil embargo
The dollar had recently become a free-floating currency, but the US economy was perceived as weak, and gold decoupling made investors seek other reserves and hedges.
➡️ As oil spiked from the embargo, the dollar maintained its inverse correlation. It was not seen as a safe haven then, but gold had a phenomenal run!
• 1990 Kuwait invasion
Right after the Cold War, the US was seen as economically and politically strong. This kept the dollar higher, even after oil prices settled.
➡️ The dollar stayed strong in following years; the correlation broke, but the greenback came from a position of strength.
• Today
The dollar has taken hits, especially after tariff liberation day. M2 supply increased massively after Covid. The “sell the US” trade is gaining traction. Nations are diversifying reserves and reducing dollar dependency.
➡️ The notion prevails that the US will keep devaluing its currency and fail to outgrow its debt. Surging gold prices and low demand for US treasuries indicate declining trust in the greenback's dominance.
The dollar index $DXY has risen almost 2% since the first attacks on Iran.
Given the dollar's longer-term downtrend since April 2025, surging gold prices, US debt-to-GDP ratio and growth rate, and foreign central banks' sell-US trade, we map these scenarios:
• The dollar will likely behave like in 1973 and return to its downward trajectory, even independently of oil (75% likelihood).
• The dollar will continue rising and prove its safe-haven status, while oil drops first (20% likelihood).
• The dollar and oil will rise in unison as inflation expectations spike and the FED fights rising prices with rate hikes. This would likely trigger a recession immediately, but the dollar would be strongly sought after (5% likelihood).
⚠️ The time frame for such a trade should be long enough to let the conflict play out - aim for 3 to 6 months!
@MarketMike Definitely, all we can do is be prepared and have our hedges in place!
@NoLimitGains That means that many people have literally written down the word „uncertainty“ in a regularly published report
IMO it is better to stay level-headed and track what institutional player do, not what some text mining indexes suggest
https://t.co/h0xdKs5bQL
📈Software is back!
Before the attack on Iran, Wall Street was completely risk-off on software.
Now, while everyone is predicting the end of the world or at least a full-blown 1970s-style recession, software sector stocks $IGV have risen about 6% since the first airstrikes on Monday!
Not only that, the buying was accompanied by heavy volume. Retail traders stepping in to buy the dip? Maybe - but these numbers suggest some institutional ramp-up.
From a macro lens, this is an indication of persistent risk-on mode while the overall narrative shifts to panic.
This is no prediction of a recovery in $IGV, nor will anyone deny the risk the oil spike poses.
Traders and investors should simply be aware of this type of activity and not miss a potential high-reward, low-risk trade!💵
@GasBuddyGuy You definitely got me at weighing political impacts and non hype information! Something truly rare here on X. Followed.
Btw, what is your take on this play?
https://t.co/heVPHFVH40
Short the Dollar
The world is focusing on energy markets and observing a break in the historical correlation between the USD and oil.
Normally, the dollar and oil are inversely correlated (around -0.6 historically).
This was strongest when the US was a net importer.
Since the shale boom made the US a net exporter around 2015, the link weakened: a strong dollar hurts US oil exports, but without the old import pain, the relationship became less reliable.
However, as imports have crept up recently, the correlation has become more reliable again.
USD and oil are rising in unison now - but it is almost guaranteed that one asset will return to its old structure.
Let’s dissect two examples where this correlation broke to understand possible outcomes:
• 1973 oil embargo
The dollar had recently become a free-floating currency, but the US economy was perceived as weak, and gold decoupling made investors seek other reserves and hedges.
➡️ As oil spiked from the embargo, the dollar maintained its inverse correlation. It was not seen as a safe haven then, but gold had a phenomenal run!
• 1990 Kuwait invasion
Right after the Cold War, the US was seen as economically and politically strong. This kept the dollar higher, even after oil prices settled.
➡️ The dollar stayed strong in following years; the correlation broke, but the greenback came from a position of strength.
• Today
The dollar has taken hits, especially after tariff liberation day. M2 supply increased massively after Covid. The “sell the US” trade is gaining traction. Nations are diversifying reserves and reducing dollar dependency.
➡️ The notion prevails that the US will keep devaluing its currency and fail to outgrow its debt. Surging gold prices and low demand for US treasuries indicate declining trust in the greenback's dominance.
The dollar index $DXY has risen almost 2% since the first attacks on Iran.
Given the dollar's longer-term downtrend since April 2025, surging gold prices, US debt-to-GDP ratio and growth rate, and foreign central banks' sell-US trade, we map these scenarios:
• The dollar will likely behave like in 1973 and return to its downward trajectory, even independently of oil (75% likelihood).
• The dollar will continue rising and prove its safe-haven status, while oil drops first (20% likelihood).
• The dollar and oil will rise in unison as inflation expectations spike and the FED fights rising prices with rate hikes. This would likely trigger a recession immediately, but the dollar would be strongly sought after (5% likelihood).
⚠️ The time frame for such a trade should be long enough to let the conflict play out - aim for 3 to 6 months!
@Fxhedgers Deficit spending
Tariffs
Inflation
Negative real Rates
Reasons why the dollar has been on a downtrend since April 2025 - and now? A surge in the dollar due to economic uncertainty
Short the dollar!
https://t.co/heVPHFVH40
Short the Dollar
The world is focusing on energy markets and observing a break in the historical correlation between the USD and oil.
Normally, the dollar and oil are inversely correlated (around -0.6 historically).
This was strongest when the US was a net importer.
Since the shale boom made the US a net exporter around 2015, the link weakened: a strong dollar hurts US oil exports, but without the old import pain, the relationship became less reliable.
However, as imports have crept up recently, the correlation has become more reliable again.
USD and oil are rising in unison now - but it is almost guaranteed that one asset will return to its old structure.
Let’s dissect two examples where this correlation broke to understand possible outcomes:
• 1973 oil embargo
The dollar had recently become a free-floating currency, but the US economy was perceived as weak, and gold decoupling made investors seek other reserves and hedges.
➡️ As oil spiked from the embargo, the dollar maintained its inverse correlation. It was not seen as a safe haven then, but gold had a phenomenal run!
• 1990 Kuwait invasion
Right after the Cold War, the US was seen as economically and politically strong. This kept the dollar higher, even after oil prices settled.
➡️ The dollar stayed strong in following years; the correlation broke, but the greenback came from a position of strength.
• Today
The dollar has taken hits, especially after tariff liberation day. M2 supply increased massively after Covid. The “sell the US” trade is gaining traction. Nations are diversifying reserves and reducing dollar dependency.
➡️ The notion prevails that the US will keep devaluing its currency and fail to outgrow its debt. Surging gold prices and low demand for US treasuries indicate declining trust in the greenback's dominance.
The dollar index $DXY has risen almost 2% since the first attacks on Iran.
Given the dollar's longer-term downtrend since April 2025, surging gold prices, US debt-to-GDP ratio and growth rate, and foreign central banks' sell-US trade, we map these scenarios:
• The dollar will likely behave like in 1973 and return to its downward trajectory, even independently of oil (75% likelihood).
• The dollar will continue rising and prove its safe-haven status, while oil drops first (20% likelihood).
• The dollar and oil will rise in unison as inflation expectations spike and the FED fights rising prices with rate hikes. This would likely trigger a recession immediately, but the dollar would be strongly sought after (5% likelihood).
⚠️ The time frame for such a trade should be long enough to let the conflict play out - aim for 3 to 6 months!
@TradingThomas3 I agree. What coincides: a massive buying spree in software stocks ($IGV) since the beginning of the Iran conflict, albeit being considered a risk-on growth sector.
For me, it's a classic low-risk, high-reward play.
https://t.co/h0xdKs5bQL
📈Software is back!
Before the attack on Iran, Wall Street was completely risk-off on software.
Now, while everyone is predicting the end of the world or at least a full-blown 1970s-style recession, software sector stocks $IGV have risen about 6% since the first airstrikes on Monday!
Not only that, the buying was accompanied by heavy volume. Retail traders stepping in to buy the dip? Maybe - but these numbers suggest some institutional ramp-up.
From a macro lens, this is an indication of persistent risk-on mode while the overall narrative shifts to panic.
This is no prediction of a recovery in $IGV, nor will anyone deny the risk the oil spike poses.
Traders and investors should simply be aware of this type of activity and not miss a potential high-reward, low-risk trade!💵
@partners_road That’s probably one reason why there has been a massive bid on software stocks since beginning of the war! $IGV is up almost 6% since then, with a substantial increase in volume.
See for yourself:
https://t.co/h0xdKs5bQL
📈Software is back!
Before the attack on Iran, Wall Street was completely risk-off on software.
Now, while everyone is predicting the end of the world or at least a full-blown 1970s-style recession, software sector stocks $IGV have risen about 6% since the first airstrikes on Monday!
Not only that, the buying was accompanied by heavy volume. Retail traders stepping in to buy the dip? Maybe - but these numbers suggest some institutional ramp-up.
From a macro lens, this is an indication of persistent risk-on mode while the overall narrative shifts to panic.
This is no prediction of a recovery in $IGV, nor will anyone deny the risk the oil spike poses.
Traders and investors should simply be aware of this type of activity and not miss a potential high-reward, low-risk trade!💵
@KobeissiLetter That is probably one of the reasons why software stocks get massively bid up.
Since beginning of the Iran conflict $IGV is up almost 6%!
https://t.co/h0xdKs5bQL
📈Software is back!
Before the attack on Iran, Wall Street was completely risk-off on software.
Now, while everyone is predicting the end of the world or at least a full-blown 1970s-style recession, software sector stocks $IGV have risen about 6% since the first airstrikes on Monday!
Not only that, the buying was accompanied by heavy volume. Retail traders stepping in to buy the dip? Maybe - but these numbers suggest some institutional ramp-up.
From a macro lens, this is an indication of persistent risk-on mode while the overall narrative shifts to panic.
This is no prediction of a recovery in $IGV, nor will anyone deny the risk the oil spike poses.
Traders and investors should simply be aware of this type of activity and not miss a potential high-reward, low-risk trade!💵
📈Software is back!
Before the attack on Iran, Wall Street was completely risk-off on software.
Now, while everyone is predicting the end of the world or at least a full-blown 1970s-style recession, software sector stocks $IGV have risen about 6% since the first airstrikes on Monday!
Not only that, the buying was accompanied by heavy volume. Retail traders stepping in to buy the dip? Maybe - but these numbers suggest some institutional ramp-up.
From a macro lens, this is an indication of persistent risk-on mode while the overall narrative shifts to panic.
This is no prediction of a recovery in $IGV, nor will anyone deny the risk the oil spike poses.
Traders and investors should simply be aware of this type of activity and not miss a potential high-reward, low-risk trade!💵
@carleygarner Definitely, true. But historically still unlikely imo. However, another unexpected macro trigger / black swan and the markets might capitulate
@leadlagreport What about possible inflationary pressure of rising oil prices (even though US became a net oil exporter a while ago - sometimes the bond market is jittery too) and the positive correlation between the 10Y yields and oil in general as main drivers?
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