CP

Citta / Mind / Spirit

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Maybe largest in this sector of the galaxy

[Eric Jackson @ericjackson]

BTC didn't fail as an asset. It succeeded as an ETF.

And that's the problem.

From $126K to $63K. Every time IGV sells off, BTC sells off with it.

That's not a store of value.
That's a high-beta tech position with a different logo.

IBIT changed who owns Bitcoin.

In 2021, the marginal buyer was ideological.
No allocation limits. No risk budget. No rebalancing.

In 2026, the marginal buyer is institutional.
Same desks that own IGV. Same desks that de-risk on the same day.

The thing that was supposed to make BTC mainstream is the thing that made it correlated.

Why didn't retail save it?

Because retail went to NVDA. To PLTR. To HOOD.
The crypto-native buyer already bought.
There's no second wave walking through the door.

Meanwhile, gold is up 47%.

Gold's holder base doesn't get margin called on tech selloffs.
Central banks don't rebalance into quarters.
Sovereigns don't panic sell at 2am.

When "store of value" is actually tested, the market picks the one with 5,000 years of track record.
Not 15.

So when does this turn?

Watch two things:

1. IGV stabilizes. Not bounces - stabilizes. BTC won't decouple until the desks that own both stop selling both.
2. Stablecoin supply starts expanding. That's new money entering crypto, not existing holders rotating. Right now, it's flat.

But here's what the bears are missing.

Every cycle, the weak hands get filtered out.
And every cycle, what replaces them is longer-duration capital.

2017: retail sold at $20K.
2021: funds sold at $69K.
2025: ETF allocators are selling at $63K.

What comes next?

Sovereign wealth funds. Corporate treasuries. Pension capital.
Money that doesn't rebalance into quarters.
Money that doesn't correlate to IGV.
Money that holds for decades, not cycles.

The institutional exit isn't the end of the BTC thesis.
It's the purification of it.

Here's the math most people won't do.

Gold's holder base is sovereign-heavy. Gold is a $22 trillion asset.
BTC's supply is fixed at 21 million coins.

If BTC's next holder base even partially resembles gold's -
sovereign, pension, corporate treasury capital that measures in decades, not quarters -

then the asset that trades at $63K during an ETF shakeout is the same asset that trades at $1M when the holder base finally matches the thesis.

Every prior cycle, the ceiling was set by who was buying.
Retail gave you $20K. Funds gave you $69K. Institutions gave you $126K.

Sovereigns don't have ceilings.
They have mandates.

BTC doesn't go to $1M because of halving math.
It goes to $1M because the last class of sellers gets replaced by the first class of permanent holders.

That's not a prediction.
That's the structure.

Infrastructure doesn't fail.
Holder structures evolve.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Bitcoin Advances Toward Quantum Resistance With Proposed Update https://t.co/fzXFgGL6Z0

[Nic Cruz Patane @niccruzpatane]

Tesla has released its first-ever safety report, with incredible data showcasing how safe the system really is.

In the North America, FSD is 7x less likely to get into a collision than a human manually driving.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Unfortunately, the reality is that Farage will do almost nothing to protect Britain. That is obvious.

Existing law is clear that anyone who was an accessory to aggravated rape or murder, especially of children, is guilty of serious crime and must either serve time in prison if a citizen or be deported if not.

The government simply needs to enforce the law.

[Harry Eccles @Heccles94]

I seem to have upset the @Nigel_Farage fan club - so let me be clear.

This man sows hate, lies and division.

He is a grifter and a conman.

He does not represent the vast majority of Britons.

RT if you agree

P.s. multiculturalism is great.

[John LeFevre @JohnLeFevre]

I love President Trump, but think he is being betrayed by snakes in the Republican Party.

This Truth post doesn't make a lot of sense:

1. Elon didn't want EV subsidies, but said if other automakers took them, he would too. It just turns out that Tesla made better cars.

2. Telsa took government money. But so did GM and Ford. The only difference is that Tesla paid theirs back, with interest and ahead of schedule. GM and Ford never did.

3. SpaceX saves taxpayers billions of dollars, by bidding on and winning contracts in the free market. Just look at NASA's budget and what they accomplished with it - nothing!

4. Without SpaceX, China would own Space.

5. Just ask any LA fire or NC hurricane victim what they think about Starlink.

[Nic Cruz Patane @niccruzpatane]

The downfall of Waymo began yesterday

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The biggest product ever

[Tesla @Tesla]

We're a car company right

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle and a power curve fit of Bitcoin's market cap in gold ounces, $450,000 is in play for November or December of this year. Geopolitical factors are likely driving gold's price increase. Asymmetrical demand for gold over Bitcoin cautions expectations for BTC/GOLD pairs in the near term.
--

Bitcoin, measured in gold, has deviated from previous cycles. Bitcoin's USD price isn't the problem. Gold has risen 41% over the last year and 67% over the last two years. Not bad for a 22 trillion dollar asset.

Historically, Bitcoin's market cap (in gold ounces) has followed a power curve with time. For that to hold, Bitcoin's USD price would need to appreciate proportionally due to the recent move in gold's USD price. I personally think this power relationship will hold, which means gold will pull Bitcoin up with it.

Bitcoin also goes though these freakishly regular four-year cycles. In the plot below, I overlay previous cycles that are scaled using the power curve fit. This gives me some rough idea of where I think Bitcoin could go this cycle.

I'll drop a video in this thread that shows how that cycle overlay process works.

Based on that analysis, Bitcoin's price would need to rise 4.8x to match the mean of previous cycles. At roughly $95,000 per Bitcoin, a 4.8x is $456,000.

I measure Bitcoin relative to gold to account for inflation, but the value of the dollar isn't the only thing driving golds prices.

Non-western countries have been moving away from the dollar and are buying gold. Bitcoin likely will not see a proportional demand from nation states, at least not in the next year. That's important because that demand asymmetry between Bitcoin and gold would naturally cause in a decrease in BTC/GOLD.

It's also possible that gold's peaked already and if gold's price decreases then the USD forecast for BTC would decrease.

If the combined impact of the demand asymmetry and a potential gold decline reduces that 4.8x multiplier by half, we'd still be looking at a BTC-USD cycle high of $228,000 in November/December of this year.

tl;dr: The four-year cycle and gold price action suggest we keep an open mind to significant Bitcoin returns in Q3 and Q4 of 2025.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The ultimate master plan of @Tesla is to create sustainable abundance for all

[Cedric Youngelman ⚡️ @CedYoungelman]

The best six minutes that you’ll spend today.

@JoshMandell6’s Bitcoin philosophy as influenced by @JeffBooth.

A new take on “You get bitcoin at the price you deserve.”

A newborn child deserves a Bitcoin price of ZERO.

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

Chart update for the #Bitcoin Diving Board

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

America will be the Bitcoin superpower of the world.

The Golden Age of America has BEGUN!

[Luis Batalha @luismbat]

None of the top 500 contestants in the 2025 Putnam competition fully solved this problem.

Grok 3 (Think) found the solution in ~8 minutes.

[CP @cittapan]

@BinsaeedRashid done

[Nic Cruz Patane @niccruzpatane]

SpaceX Earth to Earth Transport will enable:

LOS ANGELES TO NEW YORK
5 hours, 25 min —> 25 min

BANGKOK TO DUBAI
6 hours, 25 min —> 27 min

TOKYO TO SINGAPORE
7 hours, 10 min —> 28 min

LONDON TO NEW YORK
7 hours, 55 min —> 29 min

NEW YORK TO PARIS
7 hours, 20 min —> 30 min

SYDNEY TO SINGAPORE
8 hours, 20 min —> 31 min

LOS ANGELES TO LONDON
10 hours, 30 min —> 32 min

LONDON TO HONG KONG
11 hours, 50 min —> 34 min

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Starship Flight 7 launches in 2 hours
https://t.co/fdOnVB3KhT

[Nigel Farage MP @Nigel_Farage]

Labour have just voted against an inquiry. What do they have to hide?