Kooz

Founder/C-level/AI. Lifelong learner & tech enthusiast. Proud husband of a world class executive wife & Dad of 6 amazing kids…one of whom will be Forever24 🩶.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

Last night we launched the new corporate website.

You can now reach the EmzHealth white papers, the ChaosIndex, and the podcasts through a single portal.

If you were wondering why the white papers were unavailable this morning, that’s why. They’re a living legacy to Emily and they will always remain available.

Visit: https://t.co/Iw4Z3xq6KC

[Kooz @ckouzios]

@GovPritzker When losing an argument, play the race card. Way to offend everyone including the immigrants who busted their a—es to become citizens legally.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

@GovPressOffice So the state knows better than I do what I and my family needs? I moved out of my parents house as an adult to be an adult. Not so the state could take on that role for me. Hard pass. Cut the taxes and I’ll make my own decisions, thanks

[Kooz @ckouzios]

@JeanneIves Why I moved to Florida from Illinois...DeSantis vs Pritzger.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 39 (STABLE) 9:10 AM ET
Regime: 49 | Idiot: 41 | Micro: 10

12-point drop overnight, ELEVATED to STABLE. The regime crossed the line.

Idiot Factor did the heavy lifting on the way down - fell 26 points from yesterday's close. That's the crowd backing off. Regime Fragility actually ticked up 2 points, so macro isn't what cooled this. Microstructure is nearly dormant at 10. The plumbing is fine.

Here's the wrinkle: VIX is up 2.43% while NASDAQ is up 1.52%. Equities rallying and volatility rising at the same time is a pattern worth watching. Could be options activity front-running something, or just hedging against a strong open. NASDAQ leading NYSE by a mile - tech is driving this move.

Regime Fragility sitting at 49 is the number to watch today. It's the highest sub-score, it moved the wrong direction overnight, and if it keeps climbing it'll drag the headline back toward ELEVATED fast - my read.

https://t.co/AJPMSF8mZP

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 50 (ELEVATED) 9:10 AM ET
Regime: 44 | Idiot: 68 | Micro: 12

Flat read at the 9:00 open. ChaosIndex didn't move, but the internals shifted slightly.

Idiot Factor still dominates the composition at 68 - down one point but basically unchanged. That's the story here. Regime Fragility ticked up two points to 44, Microstructure dropped three. The plumbing is easing while macro gets a little more uncomfortable underneath.

NASDAQ is ripping 2.07% and VIX is basically unchanged at 17.6. Crowd enthusiasm driving the tape higher without fear repricing at all. That's exactly what a high Idiot Factor looks like in action.

The spread between NASDAQ and NYSE - 2.07% vs 0.48% - says this is concentrated momentum, not broad strength. Watch whether Regime Fragility keeps creeping up as the quarter turns. Today is June 30. End-of-quarter flows can mask what's actually building. My read.

https://t.co/Hxm65ehhwk

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 50 (ELEVATED) 9:10 AM ET
Regime: 42 | Idiot: 70 | Micro: 14

Dropped 4 points overnight, still ELEVATED. The move is real but the story is in what didn't cool.

Idiot Factor is sitting at 70 - still the dominant driver and only off 5 points from yesterday. Microstructure shed 6 points and is basically a non-issue at 14. Regime Fragility didn't move at all. The crowd is what's holding this index up.

VIX at 18.38, flat. NASDAQ off 0.24%, NYSE up 0.33%. Same split as we've been seeing - tech underperforms while broader tape holds. That's not a broad market concern, that's crowded positioning unwinding in specific names.

Idiot Factor at 70 is the number to watch. That's the tell today.

https://t.co/PXJr5OX7J6

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

Yet another reason we left. During the Great Recession my home lost 40% of its value. My property taxes continued to climb because the county tax assessor just continued to change the multiplier. 13 years after I purchased that house it was worth $70k less than what we paid for it and if you add in improvements to the property, we lost closer to $175k. And yet the taxes just kept going up. My property taxes in Florida are half of what they were in Illinois and my house is worth twice as much.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

@BernieSanders Something given has no value. That’s the core problem with your entire platform. Always has been and always will be. Not one single politician has said “This country needs balance. Let’s work together to find a moderate solution.”

[Kooz @ckouzios]

Two years ago today my daughter asked us to help her make the most important decision of her life, and we failed her. I failed her.

🩶Today is Decision Point day🩶

The white paper and podcast are accessible through the company site, https://t.co/BzcMWvde8P, or my LinkedIn profile if you're interested in the story, but I wanted to honor today with a piece she performed at the absolute top of her game. This was Emily, and she was absolutely amazing.

I love you, Emz.
Dad

https://t.co/cwWZzBM2hI

[Kooz @ckouzios]

@JBPritzker @realDonaldTrump Why? What are you hiding? If your voter registration rolls are legal, turn them over. The only time people fight this hard over something this routine is when they're hiding something MAJOR.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 52 (ELEVATED) 9:10 AM ET
Regime: 42 | Idiot: 72 | Micro: 17

Basically flat on the headline - one point higher, still ELEVATED, no regime change overnight.

The composition is where the story is. Regime Fragility jumped 7 points. Microstructure Stress jumped 4. Idiot Factor actually came in 3 points from yesterday's close. The crowd cooled slightly while the macro and plumbing picture got worse.

VIX at 20.17, up nearly 7% from yesterday's close. That's feeding the Microstructure move directly. NASDAQ off 0.46% while NYSE is up half a point - same split we've been seeing, tech under pressure while broader tape holds.

Regime Fragility is the one to watch today. It led the move this morning and if it keeps climbing, the composite follows - my read.

https://t.co/LvjmlaugYE

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 51 (ELEVATED) 9:10 AM ET
Regime: 35 | Idiot: 77 | Micro: 12

Dropped 2 points overnight. Still ELEVATED, still the same story.

Idiot Factor at 77 is doing almost all the work here. Regime cooled 6 points and Microstructure is barely registering at 12. The macro and plumbing are not the problem. The crowd is the problem.

VIX fell over 4% and is sitting at 17.85. That's a meaningful options-market exhale. But NASDAQ is down 0.43% while NYSE is barely positive. Same split as yesterday - tech getting hit, the rest of the tape shrugging. Retail and momentum crowd is concentrated in tech. That's where Idiot Factor shows up in price.

The overall score is flat enough to ignore. The composition isn't. An Idiot Factor of 77 with Microstructure at 12 means the fragility is behavioral, not structural. Watch whether NASDAQ stabilizes or continues to bleed out from yesterday's close - that's the tell on whether the crowd capitulates or doubles down today.

https://t.co/p2Jcj0T36l

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 56 (ELEVATED) 9:10 AM ET
Regime: 41 | Idiot: 77 | Micro: 27

ChaosIndex locked at 56 ELEVATED for the second consecutive read. Nothing moved - Regime at 41, Microstructure at 27, Idiot Factor ticking one point to 77. Flat score, but the composition is the issue.

Idiot Factor at 77 is close to the top of its range and sitting nearly 30 points above the other two sub-scores. That gap is the story. Macro and plumbing are calm. The crowd is not.

VIX at 18.97 is down 2.67% - the plumbing read supports the Microstructure score at 27. But NASDAQ is off 2.21% while NYSE is only down 0.56%. That spread says tech is taking the hit specifically, and retail-heavy positioning in tech is where the Idiot Factor lives.

77 on behavioral stress with a 2.2% NASDAQ drop is the thing to watch today. If NASDAQ keeps bleeding and sentiment-driven positioning unwinds fast, the Idiot Factor doesn't stay at 77 - my read.

https://t.co/S0xpBCyXVS

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

@BernieSanders Never? Someone napped through American history. JP Morgan, JD Rockefeller, Carnegie…zero labor laws, payment in “funny money” invented by the company you could only spend at their company stores. For a guy who likes to glamorize inequality bad facts, wrong era.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 50 (ELEVATED) 9:10 AM ET
Regime: 41 | Idiot: 67 | Micro: 20

ChaosIndex up 8 points from yesterday's close, still ELEVATED but pushing harder into the upper half of that band.

The story is entirely the Idiot Factor - up 16 points overnight while Regime Fragility barely moved and Microstructure Stress is basically flat. Macro isn't driving this. The plumbing isn't screaming. Crowd behavior is.

VIX spiked 16.55% to 20.14, which is a real move, but Microstructure only sits at 20. That tells me the volatility read is getting absorbed by the system without full structural stress. Meanwhile NASDAQ is down 1.32% and NYSE is up 0.41% - same split we saw recently, tech getting hit while the broader tape holds. Retail tends to be long tech and long options. That combination plus an Idiot Factor at 67 says the crowd is getting squeezed.

Watch whether that NASDAQ-NYSE divergence closes or widens through the session. If tech keeps bleeding and sentiment instruments keep accelerating, Idiot Factor could push the headline score into the high 50s before close - my read.

https://t.co/IoA2YPzm9y

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 42 (ELEVATED) 10:00 AM ET
Regime: 40 | Idiot: 51 | Micro: 21

Crossed from STABLE into ELEVATED overnight. Six points doesn't sound like much until you look at where it came from.

Microstructure Stress is the story here - tripled from 6 to 21. That's the plumbing getting noisier. VIX up 2.44% to 16.8 while the indexes barely moved confirms it. The volatility market is pricing something the tape isn't showing yet.

Idiot Factor at 51 is the highest sub-score and ticked up again. Regime Fragility didn't move at all. This isn't a macro deterioration - it's crowd behavior and market structure doing the work together.

NASDAQ down 0.14%, NYSE up 0.23% - that split is worth watching. If Microstructure Stress keeps climbing while the crowd stays hot, the headline number follows. That's my read.

https://t.co/dDDhyZi1jC

ChaosIndex data is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a registered investment adviser. https://t.co/WHKxUP0gCD

[Kooz @ckouzios]

ChaosIndex: 35 (STABLE) 9:10 AM ET
Regime: 40 | Idiot: 43 | Micro: 6

Barely moved overnight. One point of delta, all of it from Idiot Factor cooling four points.

Regime and Microstructure didn't budge. The behavioral noise is slowly bleeding out while the macro backdrop holds its posture. Crowd mania is still the high reading at 43 - it just isn't getting worse.

The market snapshot is the more interesting data point right now. VIX up 4% while NASDAQ rips nearly 2%. That's a contradiction. When implied vol and price move the same direction, something is buying protection into the rally - my read.

NYSE barely moved at +0.13%. This is a narrow tech-led surge, not broad participation. Watch whether that spread between NASDAQ and NYSE closes or widens through the session.

https://t.co/dDDhyZi1jC

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

I'm so tired of hearing this every week directly or on some forum, I'm going to put this into perspective. "Using AI is lazy and it makes you dumber."

AI doesn't make disciplined people lazy, it makes lazier people easier to spot. If you were undisciplined and lazy before AI, you are probably not going to like this post because - AI is not a behavior change. It's a TOOL. If you were smart, driven, loved to learn new things and wish you had a really smart partner who you could ask ANYTHING, you are probably going to get smarter, drive harder and love learning anything you want because you now have a TOOL that helps you do just that.

Contractors don't build a house in four months instead of seven months because contractors learned to swing a hammer faster. They use better TOOLS than what they had to work with before. Ever notice that thing that sits on top of a tripod and fire a light around a room? That's a laser level, so if you want to make sure your tile, trim, cabinets, etc are all dead level, you use one. Those tools didn't make contractors dumber, they made them more efficient and more accurate.

That's how you use AI.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

@ChrisMacFarland First thing I did was pull the files down and sandbox them before they mysteriously disappear. Fauci for prison is a solid campaign slogan.

[Kooz @ckouzios]

Markets are closed today for Juneteenth, so no CPS report. A quick week-in-review instead.

The useful observation this week was not a ticker. It was the shift in market fragility.

Earlier in the week, the ChaosIndex was elevated, but the pressure was not coming from market plumbing or broad macro stress. CPS kept pointing to the same source: crowd behavior. The Idiot Factor was doing most of the work.

By the end of the shortened week, that pressure had cooled. The latest read moved back into stable territory, with the behavioral signal easing and less compression showing up in the system.

That is the point of CPS.

It does not exist for prediction, advice, and especially not ‘buy this’ or ‘sell that.’

CPS is a risk-awareness system measuring when the "ticker tape" looks normal, when the crowd gets loud, and when the machine should trust itself less.

https://t.co/nxFJ1lvbmT