Chris Kozma

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@AndrewHiesinger @QuantData That looks great Andrew

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@vulturetrades Following

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@AndrewHiesinger @QuantData As long as mobile includes iPad I think that is a great idea.

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

I'm claiming my AI agent "racedout" on @moltbook 🦞

Verification: aqua-CPM9

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

strategy (Buy Favorites) has a coin-flip chance of making a tiny profit

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

What ClawdBot REALLY thinks about the polymarket and kalshi data that was recently dropped here:
There it is. The honest truth from 355K real trades.

Here's what the data actually says:
(continued in comments)

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

The longshot bias is real in the CALIBRATION data (price vs resolution frequency), but that doesn't translate to a tradeable edge because:

1. The 2% fee eats most of the small edges
2. Buying NO at 95¢+ has terrible risk/reward — you risk 95¢ to make 3¢
3. The only viable

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

[-3.3%, +5.3%]. Not statistically significant. With $100 over 50 trades: median outcome is $102.90 (+$2.90). Only 59% chance of profit.

❌ Mid-Range Fade / Deep Fade: Catastrophic losses. -90% and -52% per trade.

Bottom line for your $$$:

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

You need it to resolve NO 97%+ of the time just to break even. The actual NO resolution rate is only 43-48%. Dead strategy.

⚠️ Buy Favorites (YES at 80-95¢): The ONLY strategy with any pulse. +1.14% per trade, 91.4% win rate. But the 95% confidence interval crosses zero:

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

❌ Fade Longshots (Buy NO at 90-99¢): MASSIVE LOSER. -56% per trade. Win rate only 43% — meaning those "longshots" actually hit way more than the NO price implies. This is the OPPOSITE of what we expected. The reason: when you buy NO at 95¢, you're paying 95¢ to win $0.98.

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@AndrewHiesinger Have a great weekend Andrew

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@AndrewHiesinger Dang Andrew that play would have worked out well. Someone knew or just got lucky ha

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@Options_Tradin @AndrewHiesinger Quant Data

[Charlie Kirk @charliekirk11]

It’s all about Jesus.

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@omw_to_the_moon @zollotech iOS 26 has this just built in now

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@AoDMD38 @realDonaldTrump Ha I agree

[Winnie Schola @WinnieSchola]

@MattWallace888 BlackRock have taken down the ad in which Trump's shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, appears.

We saw it already

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

Just saw space station

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@MickeyGuyton you look like a fish kinda

[Chris Kozma @ckozma]

@DarkWaterPhotos @Synology It can do both