axioma research

Axioma is an alternative investment firm and design and engineering company. We apply systems thinking and first principles to invest and build assets.

[axioma research @classicalmodels]

Note to self, get more coaches for all areas of my life

[Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1]

This is my surf coach and friend Brad Gerlach. He also coaches a number of up and coming young pros in his hometown Huntington Beach and around the world. Follow him if you want to improve.

[GeniusThinking @GeniusGTX]

Elon Musk on why his companies move faster than anyone else.

"I'm constantly addressing the limiting factor. Whatever the limiting factor is on speed, I'm going to tackle that. If capital is the limiting factor, I'll solve for capital. If it's not the limiting factor, I'll solve for something else."

He then said something most managers never figure out:

"If something is going really well and making good progress, there's no point in me spending time on it.The irony is if something's going really well, they don't see much of me. But if something is the limiting factor, they'll see a lot of me."

He spends his time entirely on whatever is blocking the next step. Not on what's interesting or what he's best at. But on whatever is the bottleneck right now.

Most leaders do the opposite... They gravitate toward what they're comfortable with and away from the hard problem.

[Cold Call Cap @coldcallcap]

Your deal sourcing team is only as good as its prospect list data.

[Padraic McConville @PadraicMcC]

some random bits:

- dealflow will be up about 15% YoY (this is roughly 40 additional opps)
- opps from company outreach will be down by about 20% (made up by increases in banker flow and network); it is harder to get attention in the inbox
- as always, get on a plane
- we'll do 10+ deals this year (new record for our little shop; platforms + add-ons)

[Chris Hall @chrislukehall]

A 21-year-old community college dropout is doing $1.2M a year.

The model:
→ Run ads on Whop to people who want to remodel their bathroom
→ Sell those leads to remodelers who don’t know how to market

That puts him in the top 1–2% of US earners. And it wasn’t his first business. He’d been launching things since high school.

Whop co-founder Cameron Zoub (@czoob3) says it’s one of his favorite examples right now: no crazy pedigree, just arbitrage.

[Sam Len @SamLenSports]

Devin Cooley shares some great life advice on how he blocks out distractions and enters a flow state during games:

“I could go on forever about this. There's a recipe for flow, there's certain ways. But honestly, the easiest way, the simplest way that I can describe it is that anytime you think about yourself, you just, ‘I don't care. I literally don't care. Like, quiet.’

I say ‘shhh’ like all the time during the game, or, like, ‘I literally don't care.’ Thoughts are gonna pop in your head all the time. You can't control that. So instead of trying to control it, just let them come. And if they want to stick around, they can stick around. It's not gonna bother me, or if they want to leave right away, they can leave. It's not a problem.

And then that frees all your energy to focus on what's happening in front of you. So what are their next options gonna be? What are their threats? You can just really focus all your brainpower into what's happening. You can react a lot quicker. The time moves a lot quicker. You just get lost, and it's a really great feeling.” #Flames

[Startup Wisdom @StartupWisdom_]

Naval on why you have to be willing to start over:

"There's the analogy around mountain climbing. If you find a mountain and you start climbing and you spend your whole life climbing it, and you get, say, two-thirds of the way, and then you see the peak is way up there, but you're two-thirds of the way up, you're still really high up. But to go the rest of the way, you're going to have to go back down to the bottom and look for another path. Nobody wants to do that. People don't want to start over. It's the nature of later in life that you just don't have the time. So it's very painful to go back down and look for a new path, but that may be the best thing to do.

That's why when you look at the greatest artists and creators, they have this ability to start over that nobody else does. Like Elon will be called an idiot and start over doing something brand new that he supposedly is not qualified for. You have to be willing to be a fool and have that beginner's mind and go back to the beginning to start over. And if you're not doing that, you're just getting older."

[SBA Loan Broker @ishansba]

@dylangans LiveOak lost a lot of money doing landscaping deals and so did Bayfirst (withdrew form SBA completely). We work with banks that can still fund these but be prepared for p+2 to p+2.75%.

[axioma research @classicalmodels]

Read this

[zach @zachglabman]

https://t.co/OLyZeBym18

[Leif Danielsen @Leifpdanielsen]

If this is the hype video, just wait till people see the product @nmitra2k @nkhormaei

This rules 🇺🇸

[zach @zachglabman]

in the last 6 months, the 3 decks I’ve seen most are:

- “we’re rolling up / automating CNC machining”
- “we’re building a marketplace of suppliers for manufacturing”
- “we’re building ai-native quoting/erp/factory OS”

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

I run Zeus Exteriors and see this every week. A private equity firm buys the local shop, keeps the name, and adds sales quotas. Same story you're describing on HVAC: replace instead of repair. That's why I tell people to find the independents. Get 3 quotes on the same scope and make them show you what actually broke.

[axioma research @classicalmodels]

@Joshua_Ray215 @REIMakayla Same question here

[axioma research @classicalmodels]

@REIMakayla What equipment did he install? 4100 equipment and labor?

[Makayla | Real Estate Investor @REIMakayla]

The HVAC company with the brand new wrapped vans quoted $18,500 to replace the furnace and AC at one of my rental houses.

My guy installed the same equipment for $4,100. He was licensed, pulled the permit and literally finished in one afternoon.

That's $14,400 apart for the same job.

Wall Street investment firms have bought hundreds of local HVAC, plumbing and electrical companies. Some keep the old local business name, but now have sales targets and technicians who earn commissions on replacements.

So the guy diagnosing your broken AC might make more money selling you a new one than fixing the old one.

I've renovated 80+ houses. Here's what I'd check before agreeing to an expensive repair.

1. The AC stops cooling

A company says you need a $12,000 replacement. Ask which part failed and how they tested it.

Sometimes it's a capacitor, a part that can cost $15 to $40. A technician may charge $150 to $400 for the visit and replacement.

If they say the whole unit is dead, get a second diagnosis before you replace it.

2. The furnace & AC need replacing

Make both companies quote the same equipment and work. Ask for exact model numbers, energy efficiency ratings, permits, warranties and any ductwork or electrical changes.

If one company wants thousands more, I want to see what the extra money buys.

3. The hot water smells horrible

Don't replace a water heater over a smell before finding out where it's coming from.

If it happens only with hot water, bacteria or the anode rod inside the heater may be involved. The rod is a metal part that helps protect the tank from rust.

Have a plumber check the cause. A repair or treatment might fix the smell without a new water heater.

4. The sewer backs up

A plumber says the line collapsed and wants $14,000 to dig up the yard.

Get a sewer camera inspection first, and ask to see the footage. Roots or another blockage might be cleared without excavation. A collapsed pipe may need replacement.

I want proof before I let anybody dig.

5. The $20/month comfort club

That's $240 a year. Find out what the plan includes and compare it with paying for maintenance as you need it.

If all you're getting is one tune-up and a chance to hear another sales pitch, keep your money.

How I find my contractors: I visit HVAC and plumbing supply houses where local pros buy their parts and ask for reputable independent companies. Then I check their licenses, insurance and references.

Get three written quotes on jobs over $2,000 and make sure they're pricing the same work.

Before you pay $18,500 for a replacement, make the person selling it show you what broke and why it can't be repaired.

[The Good Films. @The_GoodFiIms]

I wish Saul Goodman was real. I could sure use a lawyer like him

[Esan @esandurrani]

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[jameson (big deck energy) @jamesonhaslam]

900 pieces of content per day

You’re probably not posting enough

[Aaron Slodov @aphysicist]

important for all to note:
1 - venture returns are predicated on speed + scale
2 - reinventing a factory for speed + scale IS NOT "i need a factory to make x"
3 - venture equity is the only thing you can use to reinvent a factory
4 - reinvent it, then scale it with equity + debt
5 - scaling laws here far surpass most software companies especially on longer timelines, enormous cash flows and growth potential

[Danny - ServiceTitan Back Office @dannypeavey]

Just got off a call with an HVAC, plumbing, and chimney company to review their ServiceTitan pricebook.

Here’s what we found:

-59% of their materials had no cost assigned.
-83% of their services had no labor hours assigned.
-Only 1 out of 234 services had materials attached.
-They weren’t using dynamic pricing (automated pricing based on actual costs and target gross margins) at all.

The result?

Their technicians are having to build estimates manually, pricing isn’t tied to actual job costs, and they’re missing out on the ability to present Good-Better-Best options to customers in just a few clicks.

And here’s the crazy part.

Their poor HVAC director, who manages all the technicians AND handles sales estimates, is stretched thin.

They told us some customers were waiting 2–3 WEEKS just to get a quote!

Can you imagine how much business they’re potentially losing while those customers wait around or call someone else?

Your pricebook is one of the most important parts of your business. It affects your pricing, your sales process, your technicians, and ultimately your profitability.

If you haven’t looked under the hood of your pricebook lately, you probably should!

If you’re on ServiceTitan and want us to take a look at yours, shoot me a DM.

[axioma research @classicalmodels]

@MosesD02 @dannypeavey Explain please