My social media policy has made Twitter way more fun and engaging.
I won't argue. I state my view. If you agree with me, great! If not, that's fine too.
It's not my job to make EVERYONE believe exactly what I believe.
Happy people don’t fight with strangers on the internet .
Druckenmiller on why most investors can't sell losers:
"if the reason i bought a stock is no longer the case, i don't care what i paid for it."
"if i bought it at 60 and it's 50 because the market discovered the problem before me, i have no emotion whatsoever."
"after a while you develop enough confidence that you're not afraid to clean the slate and start over. because you have the confidence that you'll be successful again."
"you're not going to sit there in a lazy position that you're not that sure about anymore. just clean house."
"i don't care what i paid for a stock. it's absolutely irrelevant to my investment process going forward."
then on buying back higher than he sold:
"i don't like it. but i'm perfectly willing to buy something back higher than i sold it. some people can't get themselves to do it. i can."
this is the exact same principle behind properly managing strategies. if the edge isn't there anymore, turn it off. don't sit in it hoping it recovers just because you spent three months building it. clean house. start fresh. the next opportunity doesn't care about your sunk costs.
A guy was ready to drop $1,500 on a new OLED TV because his 3-year-old Smart TV was freezing up and took 5 seconds just to respond to the remote.
He unplugged it. Deleted old apps. Cleared the cache. The lag kept coming back.
He went to Best Buy to get a replacement.
The home theater installer in the blue shirt stopped him: "Before you spend a grand, let me show you something."
He grabbed a remote and shook his head.
"There are 8 hidden tracking settings throttling your TV's processor right now. Manufacturers turn them all on by default. Nobody tells you they exist. Let's fix this."
Here's what he showed him in the next 8 minutes. 🧵
Today is basically a throwaway day. Fridays have been dominated by Jane Street, Citadel, Millennium, Virtu, etc. It's all gamesmanship and trading back and forth to move prices in the most manipulative path on options expirations. Today is also end of month. Going golfing now.
A single $NVDA VR200 NVL72 rack will cost ~$7.8M which is nearly double the ~$4.0M GB300 rack.
The biggest cost explosion is memory (up more than 5x) proving dollar content keeps migrating to wherever the bottleneck sits and right now that bottleneck is HBM.
The stock market is infinite.
There is always something undervalued sitting somewhere that the majority of people have not found yet. Always. Without exception.
That is the entire game. Not chasing what is already running. Finding what is about to be discovered before everyone else does.
The best investors are not smarter. They just look where nobody else is looking.
That is all this is.
$TE: ☀️Below is the first tweet I wrote about T1 Energy's Trina Solar transaction back in December 2024. I have been invested in and writing about T1 Energy for 1.5 years now.
It's been a high risk / high reward execution story that mgmt has delivered on exceptionally well, causing the stock to rerate to where it is today. T1 Energy investors have known the complexity and risks of acquiring state of the art solar module plant and solar cell fab design from Trina with the aim of becoming a vertically integrated US producer of solar modules and cells. As each risk has been removed, like 2025 FEOC compliance and becoming 45X compliant, and another round of strategic funding closed, the stock has step functioned higher on these achievements.
Furry Panza is new to the story. They were fed the idea by a hedge fund that was short - this is their business model. They are smash and grab street walkers for hire. When hedge funds need someone to do the dirty work of creating a "catalyst" to generate short alpha, they call these modern day prostitutes.
Smash and grab cons like Panza put together sensationalistic FUD in hopes of cratering a stock price so that they and their hedge fund buddies can quickly close out their positions. This is almost the purest form of riskless alpha.
Unfortunately for them, social media is the great equalizer and their shady tactics are less effective in the age of information symmetry. Smash and grab strategies are a dying breed.
“If the reason I bought a stock is no longer the case, I don’t care what I paid for it and if I bought it at $60 and it’s $50 because the markets discovered the problem before me, I have no emotion whatsoever.”
— Stanley Druckenmiller