Emperor Penguin

PM, cleantech, ai

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

Time for an update of my Seri Industrial $SERI.MI pitch! The company made a significant progress, whereas the share price made a significant regress 😉. The opportunity seems even better (and it was 3x-10x when pitched), so let’s dive in 🐧
Below my initial thesis for reference:

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

#SeriIndustrial

$SERI.MI Italy 🇮🇹 cleantech holding
120m cap, 120m debt.
500m non-refundable grant and many attractive assets/projects.
3x-10x upside with 4 possible catalysts in 1Q25

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

@dr_trzman @aleabitoreddit Yeah, but than you have to take the Siemens JV value which sits below ebitda? I am also counting in the npv of announced capex plans, which may be considered a little bit aggressive though.

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

@dr_trzman @aleabitoreddit Yes, and actually my apologies - it is 7x EV/EBITDA 😁

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

@dr_trzman @aleabitoreddit Oh yes, great asset with excellent excecution at 9x EV/EBITDA, US market covered with Siemens JV, Europe’s massive grid investment needs added bonus to the DC story

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

@DeepSailCapital $RSGN.SW and $KOEI - two very reasonably priced European transformer producers.

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

@dead_sh0tt $2gb.de - similar story, but hasn’t rallied so much and no dilution risk

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

@ToffCap Do you have 2G energy? Same theme as $CGEH, but Iooks like a better company to me..

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

@aleabitoreddit Have a look at $AL2SI.PA - smaller, high-end peer. Trades <10x earnings next fiscal (fiscal ends in June), grows close to 100% and has an option for 2bn deliveries for EU AI Gigafactory. Mcap 500m.

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

AI is very bullish for all risk assets because in the second-order the effects a lot of companies will benefit from increased productivity

[modest proposal @modestproposal1]

Peter Thiel says his rough place holder for the impact of AI is inline with the internet, maybe adding 1 percentage point to GDP growth every year for 10-15 years.

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

@david_katunaric @david_katunari people starting impersonating you means that you made it ;)

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

That is always a risky statement, but it looks like free money 😆, adding @joinyellowbrick to keep me accountable 🤪

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

$SERI.MI #SeriIndustrial BREAKING NEWS - according to local TV Invitalia has greenlit the JV with Unilever. Worth for Seri is 100m in best case vs. 110m mcap. Stock should be up 30%+, but no announcement so far -
probably waiting until receive the decree
https://t.co/SFVCQiWfhB

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

Reminder: project is delayed by 3 years because of red tape and investors don’t believe it will happen. Huge news financially, but also in terms of boosting the management believability. After T2 financing it is another proof that excecution may be slow but is really happening 💪

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

SHARE PRICE: Stock price is -20% since my initial pitch. In the meantime the 500m T2 project has been derisked and buyback has been announced. There was no bad news and tariffs have no impact (they will produce for domestic market, supply chain is 🇪🇺/🇨🇳).
@joinyellowbrick

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

#SeriIndustrial

$SERI.MI Italy 🇮🇹 cleantech holding
120m cap, 120m debt.
500m non-refundable grant and many attractive assets/projects.
3x-10x upside with 4 possible catalysts in 1Q25

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

Time for an update of my Seri Industrial $SERI.MI pitch! The company made a significant progress, whereas the share price made a significant regress 😉. The opportunity seems even better (and it was 3x-10x when pitched), so let’s dive in 🐧
Below my initial thesis for reference:

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

#SeriIndustrial

$SERI.MI Italy 🇮🇹 cleantech holding
120m cap, 120m debt.
500m non-refundable grant and many attractive assets/projects.
3x-10x upside with 4 possible catalysts in 1Q25

[Emperor Penguin @CleanPenguinPM]

4Q RESULTS: delayed until end of April because of Menarini consolidation - sounds like a plausible explanation. I expect beat on T1 sales - analysts expectations are way too low. Rest of business should be flattish, in my view.