Some investors have asked what level of US interest rates will break the bull market. We see no obvious trigger level for rates that will unsettle markets. It is always the pace and scale of any move that is unsettling. As the market saying goes “bull markets don’t die of old age — they are murdered”.
Every major bull market peak of the past 125 years was preceded by a sharp rise in policy rates. But the equity market reversals from the previous peak valuations, seen in 1907, 1929, 1973 and 2000, were preceded by major policy moves, with rates rising between 2 and 4 percentage points not the 0.5 point rise currently discounted in futures markets.
For this bull market to come to an end, the momentum of the AI “bubble” will have to burst. For now, AI earnings remain strong and sales remain healthy.
But many investors are getting concerned about the scale of the AI capex build-out, its impact on capital issuance, and hyperscaler cash flows.
So far, the willingness and capacity of investors to fund the likes of Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX remains strong.
Even if these companies raise a collective $200bn in their initial public offerings, US retail investors have $2.3tn of cash available to invest, according to Fed data, while US institutions have a further $6tn. This suggests that there should be funds available for these issues without major market disruption.
Source:FT
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✅ MORE INDICATORS = BETTER RESULTS
Adding more indicators does not improve accuracy.
It usually creates confusion and delays decision-making.
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Overtrading often leads to losses, not gains.
Quality matters more than quantity.
✅ BIGGER LOT SIZE = FASTER SUCCESS
Increasing risk without consistency leads to fast account blowups.
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Even a high win rate strategy can fail without proper risk-to-reward.
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Losses are part of trading.
Professionals focus on long-term profitability, not avoiding losses.
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Blindly copying signals removes skill development and accountability.
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Trading is a skill-based profession, not a shortcut to wealth.
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Why is everything Dumping ?
Over $3 Trillion wiped out in 24 hours.
Bitcoin: -3.52%
GOLD: -2.24%
Silver: -4.78%
🇰🇷KOSPI: -10.68%
🇯🇵NIKKEI: -4.85%
🇭🇰 Hang Seng: -3%
🇺🇸 US futures: -1%
Some of the key reasons are:
1) Heavy selling in AI, tech, and semiconductor stocks as investors take profits after a strong rally.
2) The Bank of Japan's recent rate hike is tightening global liquidity and putting pressure on markets.
3) Stronger-than-expected US jobs data has brought fears that the Fed could keep interest rates higher for longer.
4) The Fed's hawkish stance has reduced expectations for rate cuts, with officials signaling that rates may stay higher for longer.
5) Investors are potentially reducing risk exposure and moving into cash and defensive assets.