ClosingLine

See how every game can go, before it's played. Who's up, who's down, who to start. Next to the market. Free, no picks, graded in public.

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See how every game can go, before it’s played.

Who’s up, who’s down, who to start, and every game’s chance to win, next to the betting line and the prediction markets.

Posted before kickoff, graded after, misses included. Free. No picks.

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Start or sit: Trey McBride or Isaiah Likely?

McBride outscores Likely in 55% of sims (PPR).
Trey McBride 16.4 (11–21) · Isaiah Likely 15.0 (10–19)

Compare any two players on the site.

#FantasyFootball

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Last night in the NBA, graded against the numbers published before tip-off:

Sim favorites won 5 of 12. Betting favorites: 7 of 12.
Closer to the final margin: sims 2, market 10.

Misses included.

#NBA

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Giants at Texans: the sims and the market disagree.

Sims: Texans by 7.0. Market: Texans by 10.5.

In 437 games since 2022 with a split of 2.5+ points, the sim side covered 51%. The market is usually the better guide.

Who's missing something?

#NYGvsHOU

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Flex calls, week 7 (PPR): right on the start/sit line in 12-team leagues.

Xavier Hutchinson (WR) 10.4 (6–14)
Cade Otton (TE) 10.3 (6–14)
Tre Tucker (WR) 10.0 (5–14)
Alvin Kamara (RB) 10.0 (5–13)

Check your own Sleeper lineup on the site.

#FantasyFootball

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Top 25 today, 17 games, 10,000 sims each:

Biggest favorite: Miami 93%
Closest: USC at Wisconsin, 51%–49%
Biggest split with the market: Tennessee 62% in the sims, 48% in the market

Every game is on the site.

#CFB

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Update: George Kittle up to 21.2 projected PPR points (was 13.7).

Every riser and faller this week is on the site.

#FantasyFootball

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Update: Tyler Allgeier up to 12.8 projected PPR points (was 8.6).

Every riser and faller this week is on the site.

#FantasyFootball

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Update: Chris Godwin Jr. up to 11.6 projected PPR points (was 8.4).

Every riser and faller this week is on the site.

#FantasyFootball

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Puka Nacua (LA WR) is questionable (calf) for Sunday vs LV.

He plays in 80% of sims: 14.3 projected PPR (was 18.1).

Kyren Williams 21.7 → 22.9

#FantasyFootball

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Jeremiyah Love (ARI RB) is out (ankle) for Sunday vs DEN.

He's out of the sims. He was projected for 9.2 PPR.

Tyler Allgeier 8.6 → 12.8
Bam Knight 2.9 → 4.6

#FantasyFootball

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Tyler Warren (IND TE) is out (groin) for Sunday vs MIN.

He's out of the sims. He was projected for 8.5 PPR.

Josh Downs 10.1 → 12.2
Keenan Allen 9.9 → 11.9

#FantasyFootball

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This weekend's biggest college games, from 10,000 sims each:

#14 Houston at #10 Utah: Utah 74% (market 68%)
#7 Ole Miss at #19 Texas: Texas 60% (market 59%)
#2 BYU at UCF: BYU 72% (market 69%)

Every FBS game is on the site.

#CFB

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Start or sit: Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Matthew Golden?

Smith-Njigba outscores Golden in 53% of sims (PPR).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.5 (13–25) · Matthew Golden 18.6 (12–24)

Compare any two players on the site.

#FantasyFootball

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How it went, Patriots at Bears (PPR, projected → scored):

Stevenson 13.7 → 22.5 (above range)
Douglas 12.8 → 5.3 (below range)
Swift 18.0 → 19.0 (in range)
Burden III 13.5 → 23.7 (above range)

#FantasyFootball

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QB vs QB tonight: Drake Maye 16.9 or Caleb Williams 16.8 projected PPR points.

Middle half of outcomes:
Drake Maye (12–21)
Caleb Williams (12–21)

#FantasyFootball

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Update, KC at SEA: Seahawks up 5 points since the last run, now 49% to win.

#KCvsSEA

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Final: Patriots 24, Bears 30.

Before kickoff the sims had Bears at 53%: won.
Spread lean NE +3.0: lost
Total lean Under 50.5: lost

#NEvsCHI

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Patriots at Bears, tonight 8:15 PM ET.

Played 10,000 times: Bears win 5,322 (53%). Market: 58%.
Line CHI −2.0 (market −3.0) · total 47 (50.5)

#NEvsCHI

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Patriots at Bears: how the sims landed. Each dot is 1% of outcomes.

Bears cover −3.0 in 45%. Over 50.5: 39%.

#NEvsCHI

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Patriots at Bears: the sims' price next to the prediction markets, in cents.

Win, spread and total lines next to Kalshi and Polymarket. Not betting advice.

#NEvsCHI

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Tonight in the NHL, 12 games, 10,000 sims each:

Biggest favorite: Red Wings 65%
Closest: Kings at Islanders, 51%–49%
Biggest split with the market: Hurricanes 60% in the sims, 52% in the market

Goalies are projected until warmups. Every game is on the site.

#NHL

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QB vs QB tonight: Drake Maye 16.9 or Caleb Williams 16.8 projected PPR points.

Middle half of outcomes:
Drake Maye (12–21)
Caleb Williams (12–21)

#FantasyFootball