Corrado Macchiarelli

Money and Capital Markets, Global Market Analysis @IMFNews | ex Global Macroeconomics @NIESRorg | Own views

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

🚨 New @IMFNews Working Paper on BoE communication strategy and its effect on term premium around the Brexit referendum, with @jagjit_chadha @ArnoHan S Goel and S Mellina.

We gratefully acknowledge support from @NIESRorg

The paper is accessible at: https://t.co/fpnIhLsbR8

[Jagjit S. Chadha @jagjit_chadha]

Trawling through #MPC minutes at the time of the #Brexit referendum shows how guidance supports monetary policy. Risk premia seem to have accordingly been attenuated.

Now published in JIMF.

@CFMUK @CamEcon @MMF_research @cepr_org

🎩 @IMFNews @BoE_Research @NIESRorg

[The Janeway Institute @janewayinst]

In a world of geopolitical uncertainty, central bank communication becomes a powerful additional tool to interest rate policy.
NEW WP: @jagjit_chadha et al examine the @bankofengland strategy following the Brexit referendum vote of 2016.
➡️https://t.co/eyGjFQlFbY
#econtwitter

[Jagjit S. Chadha @jagjit_chadha]

Trawling through #MPC minutes around the time of the #Brexit referendum helps us understand how guidance supports the stance of monetary policy. Risk premia seem to have accordingly been attenuated.

@CFMUK @CamEcon @MMF_research @cepr_org

🎩 @IMFNews @BoE_Research @NIESRorg

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

F Arizala, H Tuesta, and I examined peso movements in Box 1 of the current @IMFNews Staff Report for Mexico, published on November 1. 
Understanding the cyclical vs fundamental drivers of the currency will become increasingly important. 

Staff Report: https://t.co/lvYX6OkUa6

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

Another incredibly fruitful afternoon for the @IMFNews Italian Staff Association, where @CottarelliCPI, Director of the Italian Osservatorio sui Conti Pubblici and former IMF Director, discussed the Italian economy over the past 25 years and its challenges for the future.

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

Just published ‼️

New @IMFNews WP entitled "Okun in the Euro: New Evidence from Structural Okun Law’s Estimates for the Euro Area, 1979-2019" with @naurocampos @UCLSSEES & @mitrofotis.

Full link:
https://t.co/vFlLp3Rb9F

[Jagjit S. Chadha @jagjit_chadha]

While you are waiting for today's #MPC decision, you may wish to read our @IMFNews paper on how @bankofengland comms can support more effective monetary policy.

🎩 @ArnoHan @CMacchiarelli Satyam Goel & Sathya Mellina.

@NIESRorg @CFMUK @MMF_research
https://t.co/OwDQAYDEVG

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

@clenoel @IMFNews @jagjit_chadha @ArnoHan @NIESRorg Thank you @clenoel! Hope you are well

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

🚨 New @IMFNews Working Paper on BoE communication strategy and its effect on term premium around the Brexit referendum, with @jagjit_chadha @ArnoHan S Goel and S Mellina.

We gratefully acknowledge support from @NIESRorg

The paper is accessible at: https://t.co/fpnIhLsbR8

[Arno Hantzsche @ArnoHan]

Work w/ @jagjit_chadha @CMacchiarelli Satyam Goel & Sathya Mellina on Brexit, @bankofengland communication and bond market responses now online as @IMFNews WP

https://t.co/xI45yfemoM

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

@NIESRorg @MortimerleePaul @WileyEconomics Great to see how citations took off in less than 2 years. This remains my most cited article so far!

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

@Mariosa_Com @agnesecare Grazie a te e tutti voi per aver participato! ;)

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

In Box 1.2 of the latest GFSR @IMFNews, Harrison Kraus and I examine the intertemporal risk trade-off between near- and medium-term horizons in the case of US growth using the IMF’s growth-at-risk framework.

Details below👇🏻

Link to the full GFSR: https://t.co/gJFm6ui3fE

[Italy in US @ItalyinUS]

Outstanding professionals @WorldBank, @the_IDB & @IMFNews united by love and dedication to their extraordinary 🇮🇹#Italy. Glad to host our friends of Club Italia in Washington D.C..

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

New @IMFNews blog with N. Abbas looking at housing affordability amid higher interest rates and the challenges for US monetary policy.

Link to the blog: https://t.co/1YUB5B9aMb

Link to our Global Financial Stability Report: https://t.co/Jh45YYCXE0

[National Institute of Economic and Social Research @NIESRorg]

#Weekend Reading: In our latest #MondayInterview we discussed what the #BondMarkets can tell us about the #UKeconomy

A timely read given all the recent developments💥 ⬇️

@CMacchiarelli
#EconTwitter

https://t.co/dcavFRQLZQ

[Corrado Macchiarelli @CMacchiarelli]

UK Investors’ Confidence Narrows as Markets Adjust to Last Week’s Monetary and Fiscal Events.

@NIESRorg latest Bond Premium Tracker, jointly written with Paula Bejarano Carbo, is out now.

https://t.co/2AsW0sCgX3

[National Institute of Economic and Social Research @NIESRorg]

#Weekend Reading: Our independent assessment of the #MiniBudget

We now expect:
▶️Bank rate to peak at around 5% in 2023 Q3
▶️Govt deficit to increase by around £150 billion (roughly 5% of GDP)
▶️Public sector #debt to rise to 91.6% of GDP in 2024-25

https://t.co/ZERlxLzjM8

[Jagjit S. Chadha @jagjit_chadha]

We have produced an independent assessment of the Chancellor's #MiniBudget. This looks like a pre-election boost to demand. The @bankofengland will respond with a higher #Bankrate, as it asks more of the economy that our short run potential can supply.

@OBR_UK @hmtreasury @CFMUK