๐ BITCOIN ANALYSIS: 126K TOP FORECAST
A Case Study in Technical Analysis
A detailed breakdown of a multi-month Bitcoin trade analysis that played out exactly as anticipated.
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๐ฏ THE FORECAST (July 26, 2025)
Called Bitcoin top at 126K range when price was significantly lower. Technical structure suggested exhaustion ahead at key resistance confluence.
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๐ช RISK MANAGEMENT (September 14, 2025)
Sold all spot Bitcoin/Altcoins holdings and moved to 100% cash before the reversal.
"It's not about being right. It's about being early."
Preservation first, positioning second.
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โก THE EXECUTION (October 6, 2025)
Entry zone activated at 126K range. Live analysis session.
I waited for all of my confluences to trigger.
Entered short position from cash, positioned with multiple technical factors aligning perfectly.
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๐ฅ THE OUTCOME (October 10, 2025)
Major market liquidation event occurred as forecasted. Strong directional move validated the technical analysis.
35% of position closed at key levels.
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๐ TRADE METRICS
โ Entry: $125,428
โ Partial profits: 35% secured
โ Strategy: Technical confluence + patient execution
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๐ WHAT SEPARATES CONSISTENT TRADERS?
Preparation, discipline, and structured analysis.
Markets reward patience and punish emotion.
The next setup is forming.
Most won't see it until it's too late.
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#Crypto #CryptoMarket #BTC #Bitcoin #StockMarket
$BTC - Really liking this level for a potential long.
Huge confluence around 71.9:
โข Volume Imbalance
โข 22H / 19H HOB
โข 0.886 Fib retracement
โข AVWAP support
When multiple high-timeframe factors align like this, the level becomes hard to ignore. Obviously waiting for confirmation and solid PA on the reaction, but structurally this looks like a very strong area to bid.
$BTC - This week looks bullish. As you know, my overall target remains around 84k, since I still donโt think weโve formed the lower high yet. The weekly close was very strong, and if we can reclaim and flip the 78.4k area into support, thereโs a very good chance we see a strong bullish candle push higher.
$LDO - Enjoy the profits. I took two, the first one ended BE, 10% profits (fees). The other one produced 5RR. Now I'm closing it completely. Checkmate, clear example of managing risk -> longtime -> profitable.
ethereum:0x808507121b80c02388fad14726482e061b8da827 is showing signs of exhaustion as it approaches a key support level. As long as this level holds, Iโm targeting a move back toward the previous highs. A slightly lower SL, but I think worth it, we'll see.
That said, 84k is only a target level, it does not mean price has to reach it.
There are two possible scenarios:
- $BTC intentionally front-runs the CME gap and reverses before fully filling it.
- Price moves higher to sweep the liquidity that has built up around that area and closes the CME gap.
$BTC - This is what Iโm currently seeing.
Iโm looking for a move into the $73.6Kโ$74.6K area to enter a long position, targeting $84K.
At this stage, I do not view the current structure as a topping formation.
Market Structure Overview:
LTF to MTF: Bullish trend
HTF: Lower high structure, which keeps the broader trend bearish
For now, Iโm not interested in shorts. My focus remains on long positions once price reaches the target zone. It won't make sense to go that high without closing the CME Gap, just another confluence.
$BTC - This is what Iโm currently seeing.
Iโm looking for a move into the $73.6Kโ$74.6K area to enter a long position, targeting $84K.
At this stage, I do not view the current structure as a topping formation.
Market Structure Overview:
LTF to MTF: Bullish trend
HTF: Lower high structure, which keeps the broader trend bearish
For now, Iโm not interested in shorts. My focus remains on long positions once price reaches the target zone. It won't make sense to go that high without closing the CME Gap, just another confluence.