CN

[CN @cnaniac]

@DarthVadorsGems @degendaveb Haha

[CN @cnaniac]

US Government reopened, BTC at 97k a day later. Thesis playing out as predicted. Down we go. Hope you are printing on the shorts. Bear is boring otherwise.

Liquidity at 115k-116k was grabbed only to go down afterwards.

Bulls in disbelief.

[CN @cnaniac]

@WOLF_Bitcoin_ Haha tf, this is AI. Its 2009 and she is sitting and at 1997 desk setup.

[CN @cnaniac]

Pre #FOMC thoughts. Cut priced in and Powells speach dictactes what comes next. And a rate cut aint bullish at all if QT stops without getting replaced by QE. QE means crisis, we aint there yet.

Im bearish until proven otherwise. Markets trash. Place your bets.

[CN @cnaniac]

Targets hit as expected, almost down to the dollar. Next up is FOMC volatility. Lets see where it goes.

[CN @cnaniac]

@degendaveb Alr retracing a little. These weekend pumps aren't to be trusted, definitely not when going into a week of FOMC and volatility. Agree tho, FOMC could liq sweep market.
Lets see where the market takes us on US open and if the ETF is positive. The retail FOMO is still very real.

[CN @cnaniac]

New week, 100% US tariffs on China canceled - for now. FOMC on Wednesday and inflation still up there. So whats next? 25 bps rate cut to be expected but thats already priced in. All comes down to Powell.

BTC getting close to the 115-116k range for liquidity sweep, happening while stock insiders continues to sell. NO buys at these prices, besides by the same peeps standing in line to buy gold. Insiders know whats coming.

Prepare your orders and place your bets.

[CN @cnaniac]

@DarthVadorsGems @RychainV2 @KREEEPER79 Appreciated man. Still fairly new here, will just post and see where it takes us.

[CN @cnaniac]

Upcoming real-estate crisis to fuel the bear market, impacting everything, potentially taking crypto along with it?

Image 1 shows that searches for "help with mortgage" are now at the same level as during the 2008 financial crisis, indicating increasing financial pressure on the owners of the underlying loans.

Image 2 documents a significant drop in building permits since 2022. Historically, such declines have often preceded recessions (grey bars).

Image 3 shows an office vacancy rate of 23.2%, which underlines weak demand and overcapacity in the commercial real estate market. Overall, this development points to an increasing risk of a deep correction in the commercial real estate market, which in my opinion, will spill over into the private market shortly thereafter. My prediction for when the cracks will truly show in the commercial sector is the current quarter (Q4), and by Q1/Q2 2026, we will already be in a "full-blown real estate crisis."

[CN @cnaniac]

Small weekend bounce, new upcoming week with CPI data on the 24th, so whats cooking? 3 years of bull-market complete, now time for 1 year bear. (?)

The market's recent move trapped late bears, causing liquidations near $115k-$116k. These recently opened short positions are now at risk of being liquidated before a move lower.

I do not see significant liquidity or liquidation potential in the range of previous ATH, as most participants were bullish at that time. Market makers are unlikely to allow retail and whales to exit profitably after trapping shorts.

The short-term scenario is a push to around $116k to complete the short squeeze. And then the main trajectory remains to the downside.
- PERFECT short entry here if we get there.

The crucial line in the sand is just above $100k with a definitive break below this would confirm a bear market and trigger a massive, high-velocity move down. I predict this breakdown will end the current bull cycle.

Finally, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price in the $112k range, shows recent buyers are now at a loss. Historically, a 5–10% drop causes these holders to panic-sell, which will introduce significant, immediate selling pressure to the market.

All in all, more overall downside to come with DCBs along the way.

[CN @cnaniac]

Dont be a panican! Big money wants you to buy so they can sell. Honestly, Eric calling 1M in 2025? Wake up and smell the coffee. Insidoors selling while you are buying.

[CN @cnaniac]

Going against the heard aint easy

[CN @cnaniac]

@DarthVadorsGems Thanks man

[CN @cnaniac]

Alr, first post. Usually dgaf on the X trenches, but I will share thoughts on whatever makes sense in the macro world of crypto. Thesis has not changed. Bull or bear, it doesnt matter, just follow the money.

[CN @cnaniac]

You all want to hear up only posts right? Aint happening here. Called 126k as the top when everyone shouted more so now we are going sideways for a while. Liquidations allover is done short-term, yet peeps are still blaming Trump while MM selling on you behind the scenes.