Yuhe

一个臭学医的，喜欢炒股

[Yuhe @cnjb666]

@LZRationalnvest 从卓越降级成汇丰one是不是要线下去香港分行处理？

[Yuhe @cnjb666]

@InfiCheesy 蓝狮子绑定apple pay不是一样可以消费吗

[iain @ohiain]

https://t.co/0SePOEAjlD

[Yuhe @cnjb666]

@ohiain @TaPlot For the 3 candles inside the ignition candle, do you mean only their bodies, or including shadows too?

[Yuhe @cnjb666]

@tradergokux 请问在这样一根大阳线突破的情况下，该直接追进去还是等回调

[Sean trades @SRxTrades]

Since most of my timeline is just predications and shit-posting...

I wanted to give you a valuable process you can use for days like Friday

Post Sell-Off Market Reset Plan:

A large down day often changes the market's character.

Breakouts fail, leadership rotates, support levels break, and many charts that looked attractive a few days ago are no longer actionable.

The goal after a large market sell-off is not to immediately find new trades.

The goal is to identify what held up best, remove what is no longer working, and rebuild a watchlist around the new leaders.

Step 1: Accept That the Market Has Changed

After a significant down day, assume that some of your previous watchlist is no longer relevant.

Many stocks will:

-Break key moving averages
-Lose momentum
-Trigger stops
-Require weeks to rebuild proper bases

Avoid forcing old ideas simply because they were on your watchlist before the sell-off.

The market does not care about yesterday's focus list.

Step 2: Clear Out Weak Charts

Review every stock on your watchlist and ask:

-Did it break key support?
-Did it lose the key moving averages?
-Did volume expand on the breakdown?
-Is the chart now damaged?

If the answer is yes, remove it.

A smaller list of quality setups is more valuable than a large list filled with broken charts.

Step 3: Scan for Relative Strength

The most important task after a large down day is finding stocks that resisted the decline.

Look for names that:

-Held up well relative to market weakness
-Closed near the middle of the candle range
-Held above key moving averages
-Refused to break support

These stocks often become future leaders once the market stabilizes.

When institutions continue buying during market weakness, that information matters.

Step 4: Re-Evaluate Themes and Sectors

Leadership often changes after corrections.

Ask:

-Which sectors held up best?
-Which themes continue attracting volume?
-Where is money flowing despite market weakness?

Focus on the strongest sectors first, then identify the strongest stocks within those sectors.

Strong themes produce strong leaders.

Step 5: Build a Fresh Watchlist

Create three categories:

Tier 1 – Relative Strength Leaders

Stocks that held up exceptionally well during the sell-off.

Tier 2 – High Quality Pullbacks

Strong trends that experienced healthy pullbacks into support.

Tier 3 – Rebuild Candidates

Stocks that were damaged but may become actionable again after forming new bases.

Prioritize Tier 1 names.

Step 6: Let the Market Prove Itself

Do not assume the first bounce is the bottom.

Allow:

-Support levels to hold
-Breakouts to follow through
-Volume to confirm
-Market indexes to stabilize

The best opportunities usually appear after the initial panic, not during it.

Step 7: Reduce Aggression Until Conditions Improve

After a large sell-off:

-Trade smaller
-Be more selective
-Demand stronger confirmation
-Focus on execution over P&L

Market conditions determine aggressiveness.

When conditions improve, exposure can increase naturally.

Key Question Every Night

Instead of asking:

"What can I buy tomorrow?"

Ask:

"What stocks are proving they deserve a spot on my watchlist?"

The stocks that continue showing relative strength during market weakness are often the same stocks that lead the next advance.

[Elite Swing Traders @1ChartMaster]

Trading earnings gappers and Relative Strength (RS) names is a staple strategy for momentum market participants. Combining these two concepts allows you to focus strictly on the fastest-moving, highest-octane equities in the market.

Here is a breakdown of the primary structural, psychological, and technical advantages of focusing on these setups:

1. Institutional Footprints and "True" Market Demand

When a stock gaps up significantly on earnings, it’s rarely retail investors driving the move. It is almost always institutional accumulation (mutual funds, hedge funds, and pension funds) readjusting their positions based on new structural data.

The "Beat and Raise" Catalyst: A gap is the market's violent repricing mechanism to a "beat and raise" report. Because institutions take days, weeks, or even months to build full positions without spiking the price too high, an initial earnings gap often marks the *beginning* of a longer-term structural advance rather than the end.
Liquidity Influx: These events act as liquidity magnets. High volume allows you to enter and exit size easily without experiencing devastating slippage.

2. Efficiency of Capital (The Velocity of Money)

Trading high RS names means you are consciously avoiding laggards, bottom-fishers, and dead money.

Outperformance in All Market Environments: True RS names hold up remarkably well when the broader indexes ($SPY / $QQQ) are choppy or pulling back. When the market finally turns corner or finds a bottom, these leading names are typically the first to break out to new highs.
Instant Gratification (Reduced Opportunity Cost): By buying stocks that are already in strong, established uptrends and validating them via fresh earnings catalysts, you minimize the time capital spends sitting idle waiting for a thesis to develop.

3. Clear Technical Guardrails and Risk Management

One of the biggest misconceptions about trading gappers is that it is "chasing" and inherently high-risk. In reality, these setups offer exceptionally clean risk parameters:

The Gap as Support: The low of the post-earnings gap-up day creates a structural line in the sand. If the stock holds above the gap low (or the opening print), it proves the institutional demand is real.

Moving Average Confluence: High RS names tend to respect short-term momentum moving averages beautifully. Leading stocks often track right above their rising 8week (EMA)on the weekly chart or the 10-day/21-day EMAs on the daily chart. These provide unambiguous, objective trailing stop locations.

Clean Consolidation Patterns: Following an explosive earnings gap, high RS stocks frequently form predictable, high-probability continuation patterns like High Tight Flags (HTFs) or low-cheats, giving you distinct, low-risk cheat entries before the next leg up.

4. Psychological Edge and Structural Bias

Short-Seller Fuel: High RS stocks gapping to new highs often have a contingent of traders trying to top-pick them or short the valuation. When the company delivers a blowout report and guidance, those shorts are forced to cover, creating a secondary buying wave that accelerates the upward momentum.

* Eliminating Analysis Paralysis: The stock market has thousands of listings. Filtering exclusively for the highest-relative-strength names that have just reported an earnings catalyst shrinks your watch list down to a hyper-focused elite group. You are only looking at the best of the best.

The Core Takeaway: Trading earnings gappers combined with elite RS shifts the mathematical expectancy in your favor. It ensures you are aligned with institutional pockets, focused on sectors with secular tailwinds, and trading names where the path of least resistance is structurally skewed to the upside.

[Elite Swing Traders @1ChartMaster]

Elite Trading Framework (Structural Momentum & HVE Systems)

This master blueprint outlines my execution ready trading methodology. It is engineered to capture explosive moves in high velocity growth stocks by combining supreme institutional urgency, structural price compression, and flawless mathematical risk management relying strictly on clean daily and weekly price action for entry and invalidation.

Strategy 1: The Core Structural Swing System
This strategy focuses on trading elite relative strength and structural chart compression directly against key moving averages on the daily and weekly timeframes.

Phase 1: Screening & Selection
Elite Relative Strength (RS): You target market leaders actively outperforming the broader indexes ($SPY/$QQQ). You prioritize vehicles pushing into "blue sky" all-time high territory or tightly consolidating directly under lifetime resistance, proving they are immune to market selling pressure.

True Fundamental Engines: Setups must be backed by undeniable institutional drivers, such as recent "beat and raise" earnings reports or powerful secular trends (e.g., AI data center infrastructure and next-gen semiconductor components).

Phase 2: The Setup & Volatility Compression
You never buy extended, chasing stocks away from support. You patiently wait for the near term supply to dry up and the moving averages to catch up to the price.

High Tight Flags (HTFs): High velocity moves that flag sideways, refusing to retrace deeply, proving that institutions are aggressively defending the shares.

The "Squat" Pattern: The stock "squats down" tightly into its key dynamic moving averages using the 8w eek EMA on the weekly chart as your ultimate reference point for pullbacks to determine if it is ready to move immediately or needs more time, or the 21 EMA on the daily chart.

Inside Days & Volume Dry Up (VDU): You look for tight daily candles trading entirely within the prior day's range. As the stock sits in the squat, volume must completely disappear, proving that floating supply has been completely absorbed.

Phase 3: Absolute Daily Execution & Invalidation
The Trigger: Entry is executed on a clean breakout past the immediate daily consolidation pivot level (e.g., the high of the inside day, the high of the flag, or down-trend resistance).

The Stop Loss: Your risk is pegged strictly and mathematically to the structural low of the consolidation setup typically placed right under the low of the "squat" candle, the inside day low, or the key supporting 8 week EMA. If the stock triggers the breakout but immediately reverses through this low, the squat isn't ready. You cut the trade instantly with zero hesitation.

Strategy 2: The HVE (Highest Volume Ever) Breakout Strategy
This is your specialized, ultra high conviction strategy reserved exclusively for historic corporate milestones and absolute institutional urgency.

The Setup: You scan for a stock printing its Highest Volume Ever Traded, typically accompanied by a massive, violent gap up or breakout past all time highs or out of a multi month institutional base.

The Psychology: This represents a permanent structural regime shift. Massive mutual funds and institutions are trapped in a state of extreme urgency, scrambling to build positions all at once. This historic volume signature permanently changes the character of the stock.

Execution & The First Pullback: * Day of Print Entry: Entering directly on the breakout daily candle if it clears a clean key level with a defined structural daily low stop.

The First Pullback (The High Probability Play): If the initial HVE gap is too extended to manage risk safely on a daily chart, you place the ticker on a high priority watchlist. You wait to buy the very first orderly pullback or "squat" back to a key technical level or the 8-week EMA, knowing institutions will heavily step in to defend the baseline of the highest volume day in the company's history.

System Mathematics: Asymmetric Expectancy
The ultimate engine of both strategies is pure mathematical expectancy. Because you buy right at the exact inflection point of a tight daily/weekly flag or a structural squat, your risk from entry to your daily stop loss is remarkably small (frequently only 1% to 3%).

The Reward: When a high RS leader or an HVE catalyst stock successfully clears its daily pivot and unlocks its next major momentum expansion leg, it can easily surge 10% to 15% or more in a matter of days.

The Ratio: This creates a clean 1:5 risk to reward ratio (risking $1 to make $5).

The Expectancy: Under this mathematical profile, you do not need a high win rate to compound capital rapidly. Even with a modest 25% to 30% win rate, your outsized winners will heavily multiply your small, tightly controlled losses, guaranteeing consistent, geometric account growth over a large sample size of trades.

[Yuhe @cnjb666]

@tychozzz 出金居然需要60刀手续费

[Yuhe @cnjb666]

@LZRationalnvest 当时p的存量投资者证明算伪造文件吗

[Yuhe @cnjb666]

@PhyrexNi 没戏了

[Art of Speculation @ArtofSpecuycky]

所有人都在买GPU和存储。没有人告诉你光模块公司的总市值比美光还低

我想从一个反常识的问题开始：GPU是AI的大脑，存储是AI的记忆。那光是什么？光是AI的神经系统。但神经系统从来不是最先被注意到的。存储已经涨了10倍，GPU更不用说。光的时代，刚刚开始。

1. 先说一个结构性的错误定价
在Nvidia的NVL72机架里，光模块的采购金额占到整个机架的20%。2026年全球AI光收发器市场规模预计从2025年的$165亿增长到$260亿，同比增速超过57%——这是半导体赛道里增速最快的子领域之一。 但所有光模块公司的总市值，比美光一家还低。这个错误会被纠正。问题只是什么时候。

2. 光和存储不一样的地方
存储的接力是季度级别的事件——供需拐点，财报超预期，市场重新定价，SNDK从$200涨到$900，这个过程很快。光的接力是年级别的结构性变迁，因为光的技术路线本身正在发生一次范式转移：

第一阶段（现在）：可插拔光模块
800G → 1.6T → 3.2T
线性增长，随数据中心扩张

第二阶段（2026下半年）：近封装光学NPO
光模块移向芯片旁边
需求非线性跳升

第三阶段（2027-2028）：共封装光学CPO
光引擎直接封装进芯片
这是终局，也是最大的价值重构

Meta在OFC 2026分享了大量数据，证明CPO比可插拔光收发器更可靠，成本更低，功耗更少。Nvidia在GTC展示了CPO将在2027/28年用于Scale-Up互连。5年内所有AI数据中心互连都将是光。 这不是预测，是物理定律。铜在高速率下信号损耗太大，功耗太高，距离太短。光没有这些问题。

3. 光在吃铜，不只是光吃光
生成式AI集群需要比传统云服务多10到100倍的光纤，正在把现有铜互连逼到物理极限。 这是大多数人没想到的逻辑——光的增长不只来自数据中心规模的扩大，还来自光替代铜的渗透率提升。每一代迭代，光吃掉更多铜的市场。这是双重驱动，不是单一驱动。

4. 产业链七个卡位，从上游到下游
现在我来把整条产业链拆清楚。
七个公司，覆盖从最上游的衬底到最下游的网络设备。

🔬 最上游：硅光衬底 $SOI
做的是硅光PIC的衬底材料——整个产业链最上游的原材料。没有SOI的衬底，硅光芯片就没有基础。护城河极高，几乎没有竞争对手能短期内介入。和TSEM形成上下游绑定：SOI提供衬底，TSEM代工成芯片。

🏭 代工层：硅光晶圆厂 $TSEM（Tower Semiconductor）硅光版本的台积电。
今天刚刚发生的重大事件：
TSEM宣布签署$13亿的2027年硅光合同，收到$2.9亿产能预付款，2028年还有更大合同在谈判中。计划资本支出$9.2亿专门用于硅光扩产，Q2营收指引$4.55亿同比增22%。
TSEM最聪明的地方在于：它不赌哪条技术路线赢。
可插拔、NPO、CPO，三条路线都用TSEM代工。就算市场对技术路线判断错了，TSEM依然受益。这是光通讯产业链里确定性最高的picks-and-shovels。

💡 激光器层：光的心脏
光模块的核心是激光器。没有激光器，光模块什么都不是。
激光器分两条技术路线：
磷化铟（InP）路线——$LITE（Lumentum）
LITE是目前唯一能量产200G每lane EML激光器的供应商，是1.6T收发器的关键零件。Nvidia预先锁定了LITE的EML产能，推迟交货期超过2027年。
Nvidia向LITE投资$20亿，用于加速AI基础设施光学技术。LITE CEO称2026年是激光器芯片销售的"突破年"，刚收到历史上最大的CPO超高功率激光器采购承诺。
LITE的护城河是时间积累的——InP激光器的制造需要极其精密的工艺，20年积累的经验是任何竞争对手短期无法复制的。而且LITE不只押注现在：EML是可插拔时代的命门，ELS外置激光器是CPO时代的命门，OCS光路交换机是未来AI集群的光学路由器。
三个产品线覆盖了光通讯从现在到2030年的完整需求。

硅光（SiPho）激光器路线——$SIVE（Sivers Semiconductors）
Sivers专注于CPO系统的高性能InP激光阵列，Jabil合作是第一个商业验证信号，证明技术正在从研究走向真实超大规模部署。 SIVE不是要打败LITE，而是作为CPO时代激光器供应链里的补充供应商——当LITE和COHR产能不足时，SIVE是下一个选项。整个CPO产业的激光器供应严重短缺，补充供应商的价值会被重新定价。

🔭 光学系统层：从组件到整合
$COHR（Coherent Corp）
COHR最新Q3财报：营收$18.1亿同比增21%，数据中心和通信板块$14亿，同比增40%。Nvidia同样投资$20亿入股COHR。COHR是整个光通讯赛道里垂直整合程度最高的公司。从InP晶圆到激光器到光模块到系统，全部自己做。COHR正在扩大6英寸InP晶圆产能，这是推动毛利率持续提升的核心驱动力——规模越大，每片晶圆的成本越低，利润越高。
LITE和COHR的关系是竞争者也是互补者：
LITE：激光器专家，EML垄断，聚焦
COHR：光学系统整合商，体量更大，更全面

🏗️ 物理基础设施层：光纤和连接 $GLW（Corning）
Corning是光通讯产业链里最让人意外的标的——一家成立于1851年的玻璃公司，正在成为AI基础设施的核心受益者。
Q1 2026光学通信业务增长36%，分部净利润增长93%。2028年营收目标$300亿，2030年$400亿，内含年化增速19%。两个额外的超大规模云厂商签署了长期协议。
Nvidia命名Corning为下一代AI基础设施光连接合作伙伴，投资$5亿+最高$32亿股权，在美国建三座专属光学工厂。
Corning做的是光纤、线缆和连接器——不是最性感的产品，但是不可或缺的基础设施。
城市要运转，不只需要主干道，还需要所有的小路、接头、路牌。
Corning做的就是光通讯世界里的所有"小路和接头"。
而且这些"小路和接头"是消耗品——每建一个数据中心都需要，每升级一个机架都需要。

📡 网络层：AI时代的网络基础设施 $NOK（Nokia）
Nokia是这七个标的里最被市场误解的。大多数人还在用"翻盖手机公司"的眼光看Nokia。
Nokia 2026营收预期同比增长7.5%，EPS增长21.2%，光网络业务增速20%，AI和云业务增速49%，单季度新增€10亿AI和云订单。
Nokia做的是什么？
光传输网络（OTN）——把数据中心之间用光连接起来的骨干网络。这是Scale-Across的核心基础设施。
Nokia的第六代超相干光学技术PSE-6s，是目前全球少数能实现800G甚至1.2T长距离光传输的技术之一。
Nokia收购Infinera之后，从"转卖别人芯片的公司"升级为"拥有自己光芯片工厂的公司"——同样的技术路线，市场给LITE估值66.5倍，给COHR估值35倍，Nokia只有30.8倍Forward PE。
这个估值差距是最大的错误定价之一。

七个标的的完整产业链图
最上游
SOI（硅光衬底）
↓
TSEM（硅光代工）
↓
激光器层
LITE（InP EML，可插拔+CPO）
COHR（垂直整合，光学系统）
SIVE（CPO激光阵列，高赔率）
↓
物理基础设施
GLW（光纤、线缆、连接器）
↓
网络层
NOK（光传输网络，骨干连接）

每一层都有自己不可替代的护城河。
每一层都在受益于同一个趋势。

6. 为什么是现在？
2026到2027年是在1.6T供应链建立立足点的关键时期，在一线客户的设计导入将决定长期赢家。现在是design-in阶段——产品正在被超大规模客户选中和锁定。等量产阶段到来，市场才会充分定价这些公司的价值。
在design-in阶段买入，等量产阶段收获——这是光通讯投资最好的时机。

7. 仓位逻辑
高确定性（重仓）：
TSEM → 今天$13亿合同，产业链里最硬的催化剂
LITE → EML垄断+Nvidia锁定，现在到2028年都受益
COHR → 垂直整合，体量最大，Nvidia $20亿入股

中等确定性（配置）：
GLW → Nvidia直接合作，物理基建不可或缺
NOK → 最被低估的估值，但故事兑现需要更多时间

高赔率（小仓位）：
SOI → 和TSEM绑定，护城河高但流动性低
SIVE → CPO时代的纯粹赌注

8. 光会接力存储吗？
会。但不一样的方式。存储的接力是一次性的价格重估——供需拐点到来，几个季度内完成定价。
光的接力是分阶段的持续重估——
2026年：可插拔1.6T带来第一波
2027年：CPO开始量产带来第二波
2028年：Scale-Up全面光化带来第三波

三波叠加，才是光通讯超级周期的全貌。存储让你在一年内赚了10倍。光可能让你在三年内赚同样多，但过程更平稳，确定性更高。

最后一句话
光通讯不是一个新故事，是一个被重新发现的旧故事。
光纤已经存在几十年了，但AI让这个故事的量级发生了质变。每当数据中心需要更高密度、更低功耗、更远距离的连接时，答案永远是光。

#光通讯 #TSEM #LITE #COHR #GLW #NOK #SOI #SIVE #CPO #硅光 #光模块 #AI基建 #数据中心 #存储接力 #Nvidia #美股 #USStocks #SiliconPhotonics #CoPackagedOptics #EML #光互连 #AIInfrastructure #光纤 #Nokia #Corning #Coherent #Lumentum

[Wey How @wey_how12640]

Waiting for THE Pullback

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” ~ Peter Lynch

I am still reposting the same quote and same post. Why, because nothing changed.

There will always be people who doubt the V-shape recovery and attempt to call the top at every stage along the way up. The market can do what it wants to do in the short term, maybe it will give you that healthy PB as you wish, maybe it won't.

My humble advices:

1) Zoom out

Have a macro view, e.g. what's the best strategy in a bull market?

Primary Trend > bearish patterns.

2) PB is normal

You can't expect price to go up forever, but do not expect PB to always happen when you wish for it, or to the extent which you wish for.

3) Stocks > Index

I don't trade the index which is a basket of stocks, I trade the leaders.

4) Rotation is normal

Funds won't buy the same stock every day and push it up every day. If they do it this way, it is actually not to their benefit.

Some leaders also now dance to their own drums.

5) Trade What You See

A simple and old saying, yet not many actually practise it.

Or different people ended up seeing different things - some simply cannot escape from their personal bias, no matter how objective they pretend to be.

Don't overthink and complicate things.

6) Each time is unique

If you attempt to overthink and infer things according to your experience or observations, beware. Things could be deeper than what you could see, not many are Sherlock Holmes and can successfully piece them together.

7) Fix Up Your Process

If you are still struggling in these recent few months when the index is up, you probably got the timing wrong or got the names wrong. Find out why.

8) Buy right and sit tight

Buy right and sit tight as long as the trend is intact. That's what trend following is about.

9) Each trader/ investor is different

I don't expect all of us have the same views, same way of trading and execution, and I don't care if you see me as different. There are many ways to make money from the market, just don't use it as an excuse to avoid self-improvement. See it more as an opportunity to learn and to share.

10) Anything can happen. Be flexible.

In two ways.

a) Despite technical overextension, the market can go much higher than you think. Remember there is always something which drives the primary trend - macro and fundamentals. And we never know if we have overpriced or underpriced all the unknowns and knowns.

b) It also doesn't exclude a reversal into a deeper correction (as in below 21ema) or into a bear market, although with some personal bullish bias I think the possibility is smaller.

So, be flexible.

These 10 advices is for me too, I need them too.

The following are the charts of $SPX and my three biggest positions for context.

$SPX

$NVDA

$PLTR

$HOOD

[Alex Desjardins @PrimeTrading_]

Executive Summary: 5/8 Early-Market Session

Hey team. Today we're reviewing yesterday's price action and discussing how to mentally frame "shakeout" days so you don't get shaken out of your best positions. We will also take a look at our market internals and establish our game plan for today.

Mastering the Shakeout
If yesterday's drop had you stressed or acting out of character, give yourself some grace; learning to navigate these days takes time and practice. In a strong uptrend, the market typically takes the "stairs up, elevator down". It is entirely normal for market leaders to quickly drop one or two Average True Range (ATR) units within a healthy trend.

Your mindset on these days needs to shift from reaction to observation. Discomfort is not information, and a red P&L is not a trading signal. Instead, focus exclusively on the structures of the market and your stocks. When you get a nasty gap-down or an all-day slow bleed, avoid making irreversible decisions intraday. Forcing clarity in the middle of the session is usually how good positions get dumped out of fear; true resolution often doesn't happen until after the close.

If you struggled with execution recently—like buying at the top due to FOMO and then puking the position at the bottom—use the "Five Whys" exercise to dig deep and find the root cause of your mistake so you can learn from it.

Market Internals: Risk-On
Despite the recent shakeout, the underlying market trend and internals remain firmly "risk-on". The broader market is in an uptrend above a rising 21-day moving average (DMA) structure. Breadth is still expanding, and indicators like the VIX and credit spreads are in downtrends below their declining 21 DMA structures.

When the broader internals are risk-on and you see liquid leaders pulling back into their rising 21 DMA structures, you have to recognize that as a high-probability buying opportunity, not a trap.

Sector Leaders & Trimming vs. Trailing
Currently, leading groups include memory, power semiconductors, analog semiconductors, and power equipment. When managing positions in these fast-moving sectors, the goal is to trim into strength when a stock becomes overextended.

By trimming portions of your position (like 1/3 or 1/5) into extensions, you build a profit "cushion". This cushion allows you to confidently hold the rest of your core position through inevitable shakeouts. You can then rotate that locked-in capital into fresh setups—such as other leaders successfully backtesting their 21 DMA—to catch early momentum, rather than chasing stocks that are already extended.

Today's Game Plan: "Panda Mode"
Today, we are going into "panda mode"—meaning absolute patience and neutrality. Keep an open mind and don't declare victory just because you bought yesterday's dip. You must let the market confirm its direction.

If the market confirms the uptrend and our new positions work, we will trim to de-risk and build out our core holdings. If the market fails and leaders break down below their structures, we will cut our new risk immediately and get off margin. Have your scenarios mapped out in advance so you know exactly how to react without emotion.

Have a great Friday, a restful weekend, and a happy Mother's Day to the moms in the group.

[TraderGoku @tradergokux]

热门板块 + 周线setup突破 = Big money💰
$INTC $AMKR $AMD $ARM

[TraderGoku @tradergokux]

“Beach ball under the water”（水下皮球）这一比喻最早出现于上世纪 1990–2000 年代，后被 William O’Neil、Dan Zanger、Mark Minervini 等传奇交易员广泛传播。

它用来形容 Stage 2 上升趋势中短暂回调后的强势反弹：当强势股因市场广度走弱而被暂时压制，一旦买盘回归，就会像被按在水下的皮球被突然放开，瞬间弹出水面。

如图:
$QQQ 指数于 2024/01/10 至 2024/01/18 短暂走弱。
$SMCI 在市场走弱的同期轻触 EMA21 后迅速反转，仅用两个月便完成 250% 的惊人涨幅。

回调不是风险，而是筛选强势股的过程。
能在市场走弱时依旧保持健康结构的，往往会是下一轮上涨行情的主角。

[TraderGoku @tradergokux]

USIC 2020冠军 Oliver Kell采访总结 Part2:

11. Oliver主要使用1小时线，日线，和周线。他觉得大部分人不需要用5分钟线和10分钟线。
12. K线时间范围越小，噪音越多，shake outs越多，走势持续的时间越短。
13. 他追求的是持续数周的赚大钱的涨幅，你没有办法从5分钟和10分钟的k线里找到几周的涨幅，也许只能找到几小时的涨幅。
14. 相较于向下盘整数周的大型牛旗，Oliver更喜欢大型Base。
15. 尽量去买突破。但我们总会错过突破，所以这时候就可以去买强势突破后的回踩，从日内一小时线找。（我会以最近强势股MRVL为例附上位置）
16. 买你舒服的仓位大小，多少仓位算舒服？跌了之后你可以承受的仓位。
17. 如果Oliver发现自己是对的，他会Average up向上加仓。
18. 强势股会顺着EMA10/20向上涨，选一个自己喜欢的，用那个EMA移动止盈。

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

为什么说26年是太空经济爆发的一年？哪些标的值得关注。昨天聊到SpaceX上市和猎户座飞船之后成功登月应该会带动一波太空经济的热潮。3月中旬英伟达GTC大会上，老黄继老马之后也提出了太空数据中心的概念：轨道数据中心、在轨制造、激光通信等这些子板块兴起。

Starlink V3卫星升级支持海量AI计算，预计提供数百吉瓦太阳能驱动算力。手机直连卫星、地球观测、灾害监测等应用渗透日常生活，商业模式从“硬件销售”转向“服务订阅”。

25年太空经济已完成技术破局与基础设施铺垫（发射频次、星座部署），26年则是“强弱分野、格局初定”的验证年。太空经济不再仅依赖政府合同，而是形成自循环：低成本发射 → 海量卫星 → 丰富数据/服务 → 新商业模式（如太空数据中心、零重力制造）→ 更多投资与应用。全球太空经济CAGR预计达12%，2034年或超1万亿美元。

这些都促使了太空经济进一步普及、已经跨越鸿沟走向大众。聊聊个人角度对太空经济看好的几个标的：
1、RKLB是垂直整合的太空基础设施提供商，主营Electron小型火箭发射服务（美国非SpaceX轨道发射主力）和空间系统（卫星总装、组件、Photon平台），2026年积压订单达18.5亿美元，空间系统占比超70%，业务从发射向端到端“one-stop-shop”转型，竞争优势在于垂直整合壁垒高、交付快、毛利优，国防/政府合同占比高，在中小型发射和卫星制造产业链中占据关键“mini-prime”地位，挑战SpaceX中型市场垄断。

2、ASTS（AST SpaceMobile）专注构建全球首个太空蜂窝宽带网络，通过大型低轨BlueBird卫星直接连接未改装普通智能手机，提供D2D移动宽带服务，采用B2B2C模式与AT&T、Verizon、Vodafone等50+运营商50/50分成，利用其现有频谱，2026年计划部署45-60颗卫星实现初期商用；竞争优势在于无需专用设备、零获客成本、技术专利超3800项及大规模相控阵容量，产业链地位是卫星通信应用层颠覆者，填补地面网络盲区，潜在用户覆盖数十亿。

3、RDW（Redwire）是太空与国防基础设施“镐锹”供应商，提供太阳能阵列、传感器、对接系统、微重力制造等关键部件，2025年营收约3.35亿美元，backlog 4.11亿美元，国防收入近半；业务战略聚焦生产规模化与多域扩张（空间+自主系统），竞争优势在于飞行遗产护城河、垂直制造+数字工程降低成本、多元化收入抗周期，在产业链中处于底层供应链核心，受益全行业星座、空间站、深空任务增长。

4、LUNR（Intuitive Machines）是月球与多轨道太空基础设施公司，核心为CLPS月球着陆器（多次成功）、航天器制造及在轨服务，通过收购Lanteris（原Maxar）扩展卫星平台、GEO/边缘计算能力，2026年营收指引9-10亿美元（2/3有合同保障）；竞争优势在于月球着陆领先遗产、全链路“Build-Connect-Operate”能力及NASA/Artemis深度绑定，在产业链中从月球着陆prime向cislunar/深空基础设施整合者跃升。

5、PL（Planet Labs）运营全球最大地球观测卫星星座（数百颗Dove/Pelican卫星），每日成像整个地球陆地，提供高频多光谱影像与AI驱动地理空间数据分析，营收90%以上来自订阅式Data-as-a-Service，服务国防、农业、灾害、保险等领域；竞争优势在于每日全球覆盖的时间分辨率与历史档案护城河（15+年数据），无法被快速复制，产业链地位是地球观测数据层“Bloomberg式”平台，推动AI决策应用。

这五家公司共同受益2026太空经济爆发：RKLB/LUNR侧重发射/着陆基础设施，RDW提供底层部件，ASTS/PL专注通信与观测应用，互补形成完整产业链闭环。可以值得关注下

正好看到@BitgetWalletCN 刚刚更新了最新版本，深度集成 Hyperliquid的HIP-3交易协议，用稳定币就能无缝交易更多全球核心资产，覆盖约 300 种美股和 ETF（涵盖 AI、航天、中概等赛道）等。其实可以在链上通过Bitget Wallet用稳定币直接交易美股，刚才聊到几支太空经济的标的在Bitget wallet钱包都能看到。

好处在于非常方便快捷，没有开户限制，也不用担心各种繁琐的KYC流程，低磨损、无杂七杂八的交易税费，每一笔现货交易背后都有真实世界交易同步发生。

[Ariston @Ariston_Macro]

Oliver Kell谈如何成为全职交易员，事实上，他的体系并不复杂，也没有依赖什么稀缺信息。核心就是成长股、强趋势、10/20 均线、mini base、higher highs 和 higher lows。真正让他长期拉开差距的部分，在于他把这些简单要素反复执行，执行到形成稳定结果。

换句话说，Oliver Kell是把一套非常简单的动量交易框架，执行到了极高一致性。

1）他对 breakout 的理解：比传统 CANSLIM 更早一步。标准 CANSLIM 往往等一个很明确的突破点，但 Oliver 更多是在 mini base 刚形成、或者 10/20 均线准备上穿时就开始布局。这样做的好处非常直接：进场成本更低，止损位置更清楚，仓位后续更容易做大。尽量在趋势刚开始形成、市场还没有完全挤进去之前先占到位置。

2）仓位放大的节奏控制：Oliver 通常先用很小风险开第一笔，初始风险控制在组合的大约 50bp 左右。之后如果走势继续上行，他会在上涨、横盘、再上涨的过程中继续加仓，同时同步抬高止损。这样一来，仓位可以逐步变大，但风险并不会同步失控。对他来说，最理想的走势不是一上来就暴冲，而是先涨一段，再横住，再给新的加仓点。因为这种结构最有利于在风险受控前提下逐步做大仓位。

3）卖出逻辑：正常情况下，他不会刻意追求卖在最高点，而是沿趋势一直拿着，直到看到明确转弱信号，比如大反转 bar、价格对均线极端偏离、或者趋势结构本身被破坏。真正强制执行的一条线，是止损。止损一旦触发，主观看法就不再重要。

4）对市场环境的适配意识：他不会脱离 tape 去理解个股，也不会只看某一只股票本身的图形。除了个股的 10/20 均线、mini base、走势结构，他也会看指数层面的 50 日均线和整体市场环境。因为他很清楚，自己的交易方式在趋势明确、市场容错率高的时候效率很高；但在 false breakout 密集、趋势持续性差的时候，就会被来回切割。所以他的做法不是换系统，而是在环境不友好的时候主动缩仓、降频，接受那段时间很难赚大钱。

5）对熊市的理解：2021 年下半年到 2022 年那段经历，对他影响很大。账面回撤，连续几个季度做不出结果，即便很多时候方向看对，最后也留不下利润。熊市对动量交易最难的地方，在于假启动很多、可持续性差、可操作窗口很短。很多交易机会只能维持两三周，甚至只有一两天的有效窗口。如果抓不准那个时间点，最理性的做法可能就是继续等。这个经验很重要，动量交易真正难的地方，并不是顺风时如何赚钱，而是逆风时如何活下来。

6）选股的第一信号：相比基本面筛选，更关注异常大的成交量。Oliver 并不是完全不看基本面，他会看盈利增长、收入增长，也会理解当前最热的主题，比如 AI。但真正让他开始认真研究一只股票的触发点，通常是量。只要一只股票出现了很大的 volume signature，他就会提高关注度，再回头看公司和主题逻辑。在他看来，市场里已经有大量分析师替你完成了研究，真正重要的是这些研究有没有变成真实的资金行为。换句话说，他更信 tape，而不是先信故事。

7）对主题交易的处理方式：他并不是那种会先建立一个很强产业信仰、然后再找标的的人。Nvidia、SMCI、AMD、VRT 这些名字，他后面当然会逐步理解它们在产业链里的位置，但真正让他参与的原因，还是量价和趋势结构先走出来了。这一点非常成熟。因为一旦你对产业逻辑形成过强主观看法，很容易在交易上失去弹性。Oliver 明确说过，他不想让自己对主题有过强意见，因为他想保留按系统交易的能力。

8）对高 PE 的理解：很多人看到高估值就天然想空，但他的判断是，只要盈利在快速扩张，高 PE 本身并不构成做空理由。市场愿意给高 PE，本质上是在给高成长定价。像 Nvidia 这样的股票，虽然价格涨了很多，但因为盈利增长速度更快，PE 甚至可能低于更早阶段。这个思路对交易很重要，因为很多人做空高估值强趋势股，最后亏得很惨，根源就在于只看静态估值，不看动态盈利扩张。

9）心态管理方法：Oliver 很坦诚地承认，自己是竞争心很强的人，交易不顺的时候会对自己下狠手。所以他的解决方案并不花哨，就是亏损时继续缩小仓位，直到重新做顺几笔，把状态找回来。这个方法很有效，因为它把市场环境反馈和自身风险暴露直接绑定起来。P&L 不顺，说明市场当前不给你的方法付钱，那就先降风险；P&L 开始顺起来，再把仓位加回去。

10）Jason 最后的总结：“一个真正想成为全职交易员的人，会怎么走这条路？”。先亏钱，再留在市场附近继续学，边工作边做自己的账户，攒够钱再回来，然后持续迭代、长期留在牌桌上。真正能活下来的交易员，很多时候并不是最早赚到快钱的人，而是即便早期非常狼狈，也始终没有离开市场的人。

完整内容：https://t.co/wgdn93kqXG

[Balder @Balder13946731]

光学半导体板块简介：

光模块与激光器三巨头
这三家公司是光通信最核心的“打工人”，负责把电信号变成光信号：
• Lumentum (LITE): 2026 年的超级明星。近期因成为 Nvidia 规模化 CPO（共封装光学）的唯一供应商而股价大涨。值得注意的是，本周传出 Nvidia 向其注资 20 亿美元以锁定产能。
• Coherent (COHR): 全球光子学龙头。在 800G 和 1.6T 光模块领域极具竞争力。同样获得了 Nvidia 的巨额投资（20 亿美元），其垂直整合的供应链（从晶圆到模块）使其在缺货潮中优势明显。
• Fabrinet (FN): 它是光模块界的“台积电”。几乎所有顶尖的光通讯设计商（包括 Nvidia 和 AWS）都找它代工。其位于泰国的产能扩张计划是 2026 年市场的关注焦。

网络芯片与连接巨头
他们负责设计控制光电转换的“大脑”：
• Broadcom (AVGO): 绝对的老大。博通在 2026 年主推 Tomahawk 6 交换芯片，并极力主张在机柜内部使用铜缆连接（降低功耗），但在长距离传输上仍是 CPO 技术的核心推动者。
• Marvell (MRVL): 光 DSP（数字信号处理器）的领军者。如果你看好 800G/1.6T 模块的放量，Marvell 的 DSP 芯片是必不可少的。
• Cisco (CSCO): 虽然是系统商，但通过收购 Acacia，思科在**硅光子（Silicon Photonics）**技术上拥有全球领先的专利储备。

连接与传输“特种兵”
• Credo Technology (CRDO): 近期发布了全球首款 3nm 1.6T 光 DSP。在博通力推“铜缆连接”的趋势下，Credo 的 AEC（有源电缆）芯片也是 AI 机架内部的热门标的。
• Astera Labs (ALAB): 虽然主打 PCIe Retimer，但其在数据中心连接稳定性上的地位，使其常被视为广义“连接板块”的领头羊。

其他值得关注的标的
• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI): 弹性较大，主要服务于微软等北美大客户。
• Tower Semiconductor (TSEM): 硅光子代工龙头，近期因其在代工领域的稀缺性，股价表现相当活跃。