ANON

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

Have seen a lot of people call tops and bottoms just to flip bias on the first move and then be wrong for the rest of the move anyways and still drawdown 90% or miss the meat of the move up or w/e. or worse call a bottom for a year and then say they called the bottom which is technically true, but more like a broken clock. which is why most the top / bottom calls don't matter. what matters the most is what you make, and what you keep, and capturing the meat of the move. pay more attention to the people who know how to keep it imo.

[Daila @DailaX]

I will forever love $BITCOIN for creating the meme cultural wave on CT we still feel today.

The bullish absurdity and grassroots community curation that confused (and beautifully alienated) KOLs.

The brilliant minds and talent that fill the community that never cared about building clout on the TL but are likely your quant’s quant behind the scenes.

The blue paint.

HARRYPOTTERBOMASONIC10INU has been an icon of what it means to be a true meme community and I’m grateful for the Sprotos that keep the dream alive.

✨

[Not Elon Musk @ElonMuskAOC]

As long as there’s no state income tax, Florida is winning!

[toly 🇺🇸 @toly]

Nbd

[funcry @funcry]

right now the biggest pressure is macro.

hormuz traffic is still nowhere close to normal. that keeps oil risk alive. higher oil = higher inflation risk = less room for easier monetary policy = less appetite for the shit we trade.

at the same time, btc etfs just had roughly $385m of weekly outflows. so there isn’t some massive institutional bid absorbing everything either.

that’s why the market feels heavy even while crypto itself is actually getting stronger underneath.

the GENIUS framework is already here. now the real fight is around CLARITY, especially stablecoin rewards and how much crypto companies are allowed to compete with banks.

the senate pushed the vote into september, so this isn’t an immediate pump catalyst, but the direction is pretty fucking obvious: stablecoins are moving deeper into the financial system and banks now care enough to fight over the rules.

meanwhile solana did 4.24b transactions in july. stablecoin usage keeps growing. tokenized stocks, onchain perps, crypto cards and lending products keep getting built.

so my read for the next few weeks is pretty simple.

base case: chop, rotations and violent headline moves. btc probably needs the macro pressure to ease before the whole market gets a clean expansion.

bear case: hormuz gets worse, oil rips again, inflation expectations rise and we get another proper risk-off flush. alts and memes obviously get hit hardest.

but the interesting scenario is the opposite.

if we get meaningful iran/hormuz de-escalation and oil starts dumping, suddenly the biggest thing suppressing risk gets removed while all the crypto progress underneath is still there.

that’s where i think the move can become very fast.

btc gets the first bid.

then eth/sol.

then stronger alts.

then eventually liquidity reaches memes again.

so i’m not waiting for some magical new crypto narrative.

i’m watching whether macro stops fucking with the narratives we already have.

less war + lower oil + improving regulatory clarity is probably the cleanest setup for a real risk-on move from here.

until then, expect chop.

if those things line up, i don’t think the market gives people much time to reposition.