coconuts

Trading $xbi $tsla $spy and #coconuts. @Columbia grad, ex-Goldman

[Persimmon Tree Investments @PersimmonTI]

$XBI Another Manic Monday Morning:

$NTLA — Topline Data from Global Phase 3 HAELO Clinical Trial of Lonvoguran Ziclumeran in Hereditary Angioedema — 8:00AM.

$CMPX — Topline Secondary Endpoints from the Phase 2/3 COMPANION-002 Study of Tovecimig in Biliary Tract Cancer — 8:00AM.

$ORKA — Week 16 Data for ORKA-001 from the Ongoing EVERLAST-A Trial — 8:00AM.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What just happened?

At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.

Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.

Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.

Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news.

By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap.

Markets are now closed until Monday.

[PyQuant News 🐍 @pyquantnews]

You can backtest a strategy with a Sharpe of 1.1 and a 502% return in about 15 lines of Python code.

Here's how with VectorBT:

[PolymarketHistory @PolymarketStory]

A U.S. GROUND OPERATION COULD START THIS MONTH 🚨

there are already signs it may happen sooner than people think...

Pizza spikes around the Pentagon keep hitting 200–300%.

The gay bars nearby have reportedly been quiet for weeks.

Now here’s where it gets even weirder...

The wallet that nailed the date of the strike on Iran
Just opened a NEW position betting that U.S. forces will ENTER Iran before March 31

That bet is already in profit.

Same pattern again
>fresh tension
>strange signals
>trader who seems to move before everyone else

If this is right, the next phase won’t be airstrikes.
It will be boots on the ground.

If you’re not watching Polymarket, you’re missing a lot

[Pentagon Pizza Watch @pizzintwatch]

Pizzato Pizza (2.2 miles from Pentagon) is experiencing an extreme spike in activity at 476%. District Pizza Palace (1.0 mile) is at 189%, and Domino's Pizza (1.4 miles) is at 132%. DOUGHCON level is 3 as of Saturday evening.

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

BREAKING: AI can now automate daily options income with 78% win rate like professional theta traders (for free).

Here are 12 insane Claude prompts that generate consistent 0.5-2% daily returns (Save for later)

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSPI PLUNGES 8%
*KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 10% AFTER TRADING RESUMES

The chart shows that the South Korean KOSPI stock index has doubled since last August (green) and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high (red), including a 10% correction today.

This market is not for the faint of heart.

South Korea's market is retail-dominated. It is estimated that up to 70% of its trading is retail, compared to about 20% for the NYSE.

For years, South Korea was the world's largest equity options market by contract volume, even larger than the United States. This is a remarkable fact for a mid-sized economy.

This is what retail-dominated markets do. They don't rally, they double. They don't correct, they crash.

South Korea imports 94% of its oil, with 75% coming from the Middle East. So, it is easy to see why its "degens" are panicking.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

@KobeissiLetter Bitcoin is now more likely to crash below $45k than to reclaim $100k this year. https://t.co/J6QBMsN0in

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $65,000 as $230 million worth of levered longs are liquidated in 60 minutes.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Goldman: Investors Brace For Crash As Desk Activity Is Indicative Of VIX At 35 https://t.co/VueImgUzJm

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years.
It's hard to say I've never had the timing right.
I was short Amazon at the top in 2000.
I went way long small cap value in late 2000.
I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002.
In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run.
In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run.
In 2004, I got into oil before a big run.
I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later...
In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did.
In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009.
In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok.
In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not.
In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows.
In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID.
In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history.
Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked.
During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund.
In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it.
IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok.
July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023.
2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken.
2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious.
2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120.
I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone.
I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

A question I have for $ORCL, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, $CAT, and all the rest, “When does the spending for AI data center buildout actually end?”
It is consuming all your cash flow, you are borrowing, you are financing in ways you never have, apparently because it is so urgent, because it scales?
But if it scales, when does it end?
Now you are engaging in accounting tricks to hide expense, to protect earnings, as the impact is so severe. You will be tortuously adjusting your earnings in a new and sinister ways.
When does it end?

[Stocktwits @Stocktwits]

The Top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class 🤯

[coconuts @coconutts10]

Please do not ever host @redbull in San Francisco ever again. Traffic in Marina an absolute disaster, no cops anywhere controlling cars or people. @DanielLurie horrible idea

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

FDA Dropping Requirement For 2 Studies For New Drug Approvals https://t.co/MiEhsTOesX

[sysls @systematicls]

renaissance technologies: 300 PhDs, secret algorithm, 30 years of data

us: claude and a python library

the gap is closing faster than they'd like

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Initial jobless claims down to 206k vs. 225k est. & 229k prior; continuing claims at 1.869M vs. 1.860M est. & 1.852 prior… greatest increases in  OR (+0.42k), IA (+0.32k), & MI (+0.07k); greatest decreases in NY (-7.5k), PA (-5.3k), & NJ (-3.0k)

[STAT @statnews]

Gossamer Bio will be reporting the outcome of a late-stage study in pulmonary arterial hypertension. Here's what to know. https://t.co/aSlSuFqB6q

[coconuts @coconutts10]

$EVMN - current $30, PT $42, market cap $1.1B, cash ~$350M, burning $25/quarter, catalyst - Two Phase 2b Top-Line Data Readouts Anticipated in CSU in 1H26 and AD in 2H26 $XBI

[coconuts @coconutts10]

$RCUS - current $19, PT $32, market cap $2.4B, cash $1B, burning $170M/quarter, catalysts - 4Q25 call February 25th & casdatifan phase 3 data, short interest 10%