Lelouch

Economist and Thinker. Love brainstorming on Startups and Web3!!

[Parimal @Fintech03]

For Durov to position himself as a neutral, benevolent observer protecting "150 million ordinary users" is deeply hypocritical. These platforms are corporate entities making billions off user data & engagement; they are not democratic institutions.

The govt’s time-bound, 1 week block on TG (ending June 22, 2026) is not actually because they think they can stop files from being sent. It is a targeted strike against a very specific, automated scam feature on TG: Retroactive Document Swapping.

A malicious group posts a completely random, innocuous PDF on TG before an exam (say, a 2022 practice paper). The moment the actual 2026 exam finishes, the admin uses TG’s edit feature to delete the old PDF & upload the real, leaked question paper into that exact same post. Because TG retains the original, pre-exam time stamp, it creates the terrifying optical illusion that the paper was leaked 24 hrs before the test.

This creates massive, manufactured panic, tells lakhs of students their hard work is worthless & sends angry youth into the streets to destabilize the present dispensation. By ordering TG to completely disable the message-editing feature until June 30, the govt effectively broke the mechanical spine of this psychological warfare.

If you want access to the world’s largest open internet market, you do not get to lecture the host nation on law & order; you comply with the local rules of the land.

The govt now has to execute 2 things flawlessly:

- The Internal Cleanup: Use the intelligence networks to ruthlessly hunt down the actual human insiders, institutional mafias & printing-press colluders leaking these papers. Technology cannot fix a corrupt human element.

- The External Defense: Keep drawing hard red lines for Silicon Valley & Dubai-based tech companies. India’s youth cannot be used as volatile algorithmic fuel to generate ad revenue/engineer political instability.

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@MBAeconomics1 Hmm- more like a low probability lottery ticket then. If it works, you make millions else nothing!

But why do you think: “increasing number of call options implies higher probability of this happening”

(Who will be there on the other side of the trade if this were to happen?)

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@amitbehalll It won’t be made mandatory. Gadkari has clearly communicated this.

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@dmuthuk Expecting better takes from you. Of course, US is acting reckless but situation is not as simple as you make it sound like.

You may want to read this!

[Amit Schandillia @Schandillia]

[WHY IS TRUMP HITTING INDIAN SHIPS]

So here’s something right off the bat: MT Settebello is technically not an Indian ship but Palauan. Under international maritime laws, a ship’s nationality is its flag. This one carried Palau’s, even though much of its crew was Indian.

Behind the scenes it could be owned by an Indian, who knows. You might ask why, but a bigger why is...what is a commercial ship doing in troubled waters anyway? Who is even insuring them? Without insurance, it’s too much risk for too little to gain.

And the answer is “shadow fleet.”

These are vessels explicitly used to smuggle sanctioned payload, in this case Iranian oil. The people who own and operate them aren’t making some innocent miscalculation about safety, but deliberately attempting to run a military blockade for massive financial gain.

While legitimate, mainstream shipping companies are avoiding Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, the shadow fleet operates by an entirely different set of rules.

First, as we just noted, is obscured ownership. They use complex webs of shell companies and “flags of convenience” like Palau or Guinea-Bissau to hide the true identities of the shi’s owners and charterers. That’s why I said, Settebello is TECHNICALLY Palauan, but behind the scene...you never know.

Second rule pertains to insurance. Mainstream ship insurers, the P&I clubs, would not cover vessels violating sanctions, especially American. But shadow fleets rely on obscure, non-Western insurers to bypass this issue...or depending on how shady they are, can even operate with no legitimate liability coverage at all.

And finally, it’s about the assets, both man and machine. Shadow fleets typically use aging, end-of-life vessels. Settebello is 29 years old. If a ship is seized or disabled, the financial hit to the owners is minimal compared to the profits of a successful run.

Why?

Because the bigger the risk, the lower the competition and bigger the incentives. Pure economics.

Because of the blockade, the premiums paid to transport Iranian oil have shot through the roof. These shadow owners stand to make astronomical profits on a single successful voyage, which makes them highly willing to risk an old ship.

But there’s still a method involved, it’s not all casino betting. To the best of their capability, they still do what it takes to evade detection.

To get past the blockading Navy, these ships don’t broadcast their intentions. They rely on what the industry calls “dark transits.”

This involves turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders so they disappear from public tracking screens. In the current context, shadow fleet ships have been attempting to skirt the rocky, busy coastline of Oman at night, hoping to slip through the alternative corridors undetected.

But all this comes at a human cost.

Ultimately, the people deciding to run the blockade are sitting safely in offices far away, while the crew members, often sourced from countries like India, bear all the physical risk.

While international maritime guidance strongly advises ship masters to refuse orders into the Gulf of Oman without explicit written authorization and clear insurance guarantees, crew members on shadow fleet vessels are often heavily pressured by their employers to comply. They are ordered into the crosshairs of the blockade by owners who are willing to gamble the lives of the crew for a lucrative payday.

The blockade was announced well in advance. CENTCOM has publicly stated that the ship was targeted only “after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from American forces.”

Sure, America could be lying. But the other party is literally a shadow fleet of smugglers employing crew from the Third World as an expendible asset knowing full well the potentially fatal consequences of sailing into the Strait. If it’s A’s word against B, excuse me for siding with the not-smugglers.

At any rate, the price is paid by innocent young men who only hoped to make a decent paycheck and return home to their families. Men who have nothing to do with either the hustle or the war.

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@BaluGorade Ethanol won’t be mandatory. Transition would be gradual and phased.

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | Nagpur, Maharashtra: Union Minister Nitin Gadkari says, “Last night at 8 PM, I signed the file, finalising the regulations to legally authorise the use of 100% ethanol. I am delighted to share that I, along with Hardeep Singh Puri, had the opportunity to launch the 100% ethanol-compatible version of the WagonR—Maruti Suzuki’s best-selling car. Regarding motorcycles, Hero MotoCorp—which accounts for three out of every five motorcycles sold—has launched two flex-fuel models capable of running on 100% ethanol. Following this, companies like Toyota, Suzuki, MG, and Hyundai will launch 100% ethanol-compatible vehicles within the next month and a half. Thus, ethanol will serve as a viable alternative to petrol. People used to laugh when I spoke of this dream, and some friends even criticised it...Soon, we will launch a pilot project in Nagpur featuring a hydrogen pump and two hydrogen-powered buses. The public will be able to ride these hydrogen buses, which will be powered by green hydrogen extracted from water using an electrolyser. That day is now near.”

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@me_ganesh14 Are they? I think they have clearly said it will be an alternative and not mandatory. I thinking people are overthinking this.

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | Nagpur, Maharashtra: Union Minister Nitin Gadkari says, “Last night at 8 PM, I signed the file, finalising the regulations to legally authorise the use of 100% ethanol. I am delighted to share that I, along with Hardeep Singh Puri, had the opportunity to launch the 100% ethanol-compatible version of the WagonR—Maruti Suzuki’s best-selling car. Regarding motorcycles, Hero MotoCorp—which accounts for three out of every five motorcycles sold—has launched two flex-fuel models capable of running on 100% ethanol. Following this, companies like Toyota, Suzuki, MG, and Hyundai will launch 100% ethanol-compatible vehicles within the next month and a half. Thus, ethanol will serve as a viable alternative to petrol. People used to laugh when I spoke of this dream, and some friends even criticised it...Soon, we will launch a pilot project in Nagpur featuring a hydrogen pump and two hydrogen-powered buses. The public will be able to ride these hydrogen buses, which will be powered by green hydrogen extracted from water using an electrolyser. That day is now near.”

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@me_ganesh14 Not sure why so much rage around the issue. It won’t be made compulsory but encouraged or incentivised and transition will be gradual. The piece below covers it where Gadkari clearly says that it will be an alternative (and not mandatory).

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | Nagpur, Maharashtra: Union Minister Nitin Gadkari says, “Last night at 8 PM, I signed the file, finalising the regulations to legally authorise the use of 100% ethanol. I am delighted to share that I, along with Hardeep Singh Puri, had the opportunity to launch the 100% ethanol-compatible version of the WagonR—Maruti Suzuki’s best-selling car. Regarding motorcycles, Hero MotoCorp—which accounts for three out of every five motorcycles sold—has launched two flex-fuel models capable of running on 100% ethanol. Following this, companies like Toyota, Suzuki, MG, and Hyundai will launch 100% ethanol-compatible vehicles within the next month and a half. Thus, ethanol will serve as a viable alternative to petrol. People used to laugh when I spoke of this dream, and some friends even criticised it...Soon, we will launch a pilot project in Nagpur featuring a hydrogen pump and two hydrogen-powered buses. The public will be able to ride these hydrogen buses, which will be powered by green hydrogen extracted from water using an electrolyser. That day is now near.”

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@riteshmjn @ankitatIIMA : Another win in your quiver!

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@CrypticReally @TheNavroopSingh Commoners like us tend to oversimplify things. Reality is generally much more complex and nuanced.

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@CrypticReally @TheNavroopSingh You may want to read this:

[Amit Schandillia @Schandillia]

[WHY IS TRUMP HITTING INDIAN SHIPS]

So here’s something right off the bat: MT Settebello is technically not an Indian ship but Palauan. Under international maritime laws, a ship’s nationality is its flag. This one carried Palau’s, even though much of its crew was Indian.

Behind the scenes it could be owned by an Indian, who knows. You might ask why, but a bigger why is...what is a commercial ship doing in troubled waters anyway? Who is even insuring them? Without insurance, it’s too much risk for too little to gain.

And the answer is “shadow fleet.”

These are vessels explicitly used to smuggle sanctioned payload, in this case Iranian oil. The people who own and operate them aren’t making some innocent miscalculation about safety, but deliberately attempting to run a military blockade for massive financial gain.

While legitimate, mainstream shipping companies are avoiding Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, the shadow fleet operates by an entirely different set of rules.

First, as we just noted, is obscured ownership. They use complex webs of shell companies and “flags of convenience” like Palau or Guinea-Bissau to hide the true identities of the shi’s owners and charterers. That’s why I said, Settebello is TECHNICALLY Palauan, but behind the scene...you never know.

Second rule pertains to insurance. Mainstream ship insurers, the P&I clubs, would not cover vessels violating sanctions, especially American. But shadow fleets rely on obscure, non-Western insurers to bypass this issue...or depending on how shady they are, can even operate with no legitimate liability coverage at all.

And finally, it’s about the assets, both man and machine. Shadow fleets typically use aging, end-of-life vessels. Settebello is 29 years old. If a ship is seized or disabled, the financial hit to the owners is minimal compared to the profits of a successful run.

Why?

Because the bigger the risk, the lower the competition and bigger the incentives. Pure economics.

Because of the blockade, the premiums paid to transport Iranian oil have shot through the roof. These shadow owners stand to make astronomical profits on a single successful voyage, which makes them highly willing to risk an old ship.

But there’s still a method involved, it’s not all casino betting. To the best of their capability, they still do what it takes to evade detection.

To get past the blockading Navy, these ships don’t broadcast their intentions. They rely on what the industry calls “dark transits.”

This involves turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders so they disappear from public tracking screens. In the current context, shadow fleet ships have been attempting to skirt the rocky, busy coastline of Oman at night, hoping to slip through the alternative corridors undetected.

But all this comes at a human cost.

Ultimately, the people deciding to run the blockade are sitting safely in offices far away, while the crew members, often sourced from countries like India, bear all the physical risk.

While international maritime guidance strongly advises ship masters to refuse orders into the Gulf of Oman without explicit written authorization and clear insurance guarantees, crew members on shadow fleet vessels are often heavily pressured by their employers to comply. They are ordered into the crosshairs of the blockade by owners who are willing to gamble the lives of the crew for a lucrative payday.

The blockade was announced well in advance. CENTCOM has publicly stated that the ship was targeted only “after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from American forces.”

Sure, America could be lying. But the other party is literally a shadow fleet of smugglers employing crew from the Third World as an expendible asset knowing full well the potentially fatal consequences of sailing into the Strait. If it’s A’s word against B, excuse me for siding with the not-smugglers.

At any rate, the price is paid by innocent young men who only hoped to make a decent paycheck and return home to their families. Men who have nothing to do with either the hustle or the war.

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@SomenMohanty @tehseenp That number includes water used in sugarcane production and that is the primary contributor. Since ethanol is a by-product, there is hardly any “incremental” water usage for producing ethanol.

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@Gurmoksh @Malay4Product Ethanol is a by-product. It doesn’t require any additional/incremental water. Sugarcane will be produced and it will consume same water (with or without ethanol).

Calculations floating on internet are misguided

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@krishna_tester @Malay4Product The water calculations used for preparation of ethanol conveniently include water for growing sugarcane while farming. That’s a stupid metric to calculate water requirement.

Ethanol is a by-product. Even without ethanol, sugarcane will be produced and the crop will need water.

[Malay Krishna @Malay4Product]

The E100 idea is a good one.

The problem is the government has spent a year making people hate the word ethanol, so now even a good idea looks bad.

Let me start with what just happened.

Gadkari Ji signed the file that makes 100 percent ethanol fuel legal in India. They call this fuel E100. It comes right after Maruti launched its first flex-fuel car, a Wagon R that can run on petrol mixed with ethanol, all the way up to pure ethanol.

Hero already sells flex-fuel bikes. Toyota, Hyundai and Suzuki are supposed to bring theirs in the next couple of months.

It makes sense because India buys most of its oil from other countries. More than 85 percent of it. We are one of the biggest oil buyers in the world and that bill is massive.

So if we can make some of our own fuel here from our own farms through ethanol, that money stays in India instead of going abroad. The government says ethanol blending has already saved more than ₹1 lakh crore on oil imports over ten years.

Farmers who grow the sugarcane and maize for it have earned over ₹80,000 crore. The fuel burns a little cleaner too. So the basic idea, grow your own fuel instead of importing it, is a sensible one.

And the good thing is that nobody is going to put pure ethanol in your old car. It only goes into the new flex-fuel cars that are built for it. You buy that kind of car knowing it runs on ethanol. So it is not being forced on anyone.

But here is where the anger comes from.

Last year, in April 2025, the government made E20 petrol the only option at almost 90,000 pumps. E20 means 20 percent ethanol mixed in.

Suddenly there was no normal petrol left to buy. You just had to take it. And then people started noticing problems. A big survey found 8 out of 10 people with cars bought before 2022 saw their mileage go down.

Even the carmakers admitted mileage drops by about 2 to 4 percent. Mechanics said fuel-related problems jumped 40 percent. One man in Chennai said his car needed around ₹4 lakh of repairs after water got into the fuel.

And the way the government keeps talking about it is making things worse. In this same speech, Gadkari Ji told a story about a man who blamed ethanol for his breakdown, then said it was a diesel car, so the complaint was nonsense.

He used it to say people are spreading false information. But if someone really did spend ₹4 lakh on repairs and you tell them their problem is fake, they do not feel better. They get more upset. You cannot win people back by telling them they are lying.

So while the policy is fine, the trust is gone. And you cannot sell a new ethanol product to people who already feel cheated by the last one.

The first job for the government right now is to make it clear, everywhere, that E100 is only for the new flex-fuel cars and is not going into anyone's old vehicle.

A lot of people right now think pure ethanol is the next thing about to be pushed on them. That fear needs to go away fast.

Next, give people their choice back on normal petrol. Most of the anger is simply because there is no other option at the pump. Some countries keep two types of fuel side by side. If India brings back a lower-ethanol or ethanol-free petrol for older cars, a big chunk of the anger settles on its own.

They also have to stop calling the complaints fake.

Be straight with people instead. Older cars do lose a bit of mileage. Cars made before 2023 were not built for this fuel.

Say that openly, and say what will be done about it. People will forgive an honest answer.

And also talk about money. A normal person is worried about mileage and what they spend every month. Show how much the country saves on oil.

Put the cost per kilometre in plain numbers. Make it about their pocket.

The sad part is the government has a good story to tell.

Less foreign oil, more income for farmers, a whole new industry being built at home.

But they have rolled this out badly, refused to admit the problems, and as a result even E100, which is actually optional and sensible is getting the same anger as others.

[Sridhar Vembu @svembu]

This is big: all access to Mythos and Fable AI models disabled for everyone outside America.

First thoughts:

1. Technology is the ultimate weapon. National sovereignty, national security, all of it is now about technology.

2. Globalization is dead and Bharat must find her own way ahead.

We must keep these two ideas in mind.

What can our government do right now? Ensure that orgs in India embrace smaller models, both Indian and Chinese open source ones. With a bit of effort, we can make them work. Anyway, why pay money to people who don't even want to sell to you?

We must deepen our R&D. Sarvam has been on it and we have been on it but remember that the latest models cost not only huge GPU budgets to train, the GPUs themselves are restricted. So we can't afford the scale of money (of the order of $100+ billion to even get in the game!) and even if we could come up with the money, we can't get all the GPUs. I would not like to ask the government to fund tens of billions of dollars on this anyway - the money has far better uses.

Zoho has been pursuing alternative R&D approaches that are far, far less expensive but by its nature cutting edge R&D takes time and we are patient. I am confident we will get there.

Any remaining people in India who have delusions about globalization should wake up now.

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@TheNavroopSingh I like your posts but tbh suggesting that India PM should refuse to meet US President is irrational. Important international decisions are not made on whims and emotions alone.

Also here is a full account of what’s happening! Indeed India should act but not irresponsibly!

[Amit Schandillia @Schandillia]

[WHY IS TRUMP HITTING INDIAN SHIPS]

So here’s something right off the bat: MT Settebello is technically not an Indian ship but Palauan. Under international maritime laws, a ship’s nationality is its flag. This one carried Palau’s, even though much of its crew was Indian.

Behind the scenes it could be owned by an Indian, who knows. You might ask why, but a bigger why is...what is a commercial ship doing in troubled waters anyway? Who is even insuring them? Without insurance, it’s too much risk for too little to gain.

And the answer is “shadow fleet.”

These are vessels explicitly used to smuggle sanctioned payload, in this case Iranian oil. The people who own and operate them aren’t making some innocent miscalculation about safety, but deliberately attempting to run a military blockade for massive financial gain.

While legitimate, mainstream shipping companies are avoiding Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, the shadow fleet operates by an entirely different set of rules.

First, as we just noted, is obscured ownership. They use complex webs of shell companies and “flags of convenience” like Palau or Guinea-Bissau to hide the true identities of the shi’s owners and charterers. That’s why I said, Settebello is TECHNICALLY Palauan, but behind the scene...you never know.

Second rule pertains to insurance. Mainstream ship insurers, the P&I clubs, would not cover vessels violating sanctions, especially American. But shadow fleets rely on obscure, non-Western insurers to bypass this issue...or depending on how shady they are, can even operate with no legitimate liability coverage at all.

And finally, it’s about the assets, both man and machine. Shadow fleets typically use aging, end-of-life vessels. Settebello is 29 years old. If a ship is seized or disabled, the financial hit to the owners is minimal compared to the profits of a successful run.

Why?

Because the bigger the risk, the lower the competition and bigger the incentives. Pure economics.

Because of the blockade, the premiums paid to transport Iranian oil have shot through the roof. These shadow owners stand to make astronomical profits on a single successful voyage, which makes them highly willing to risk an old ship.

But there’s still a method involved, it’s not all casino betting. To the best of their capability, they still do what it takes to evade detection.

To get past the blockading Navy, these ships don’t broadcast their intentions. They rely on what the industry calls “dark transits.”

This involves turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders so they disappear from public tracking screens. In the current context, shadow fleet ships have been attempting to skirt the rocky, busy coastline of Oman at night, hoping to slip through the alternative corridors undetected.

But all this comes at a human cost.

Ultimately, the people deciding to run the blockade are sitting safely in offices far away, while the crew members, often sourced from countries like India, bear all the physical risk.

While international maritime guidance strongly advises ship masters to refuse orders into the Gulf of Oman without explicit written authorization and clear insurance guarantees, crew members on shadow fleet vessels are often heavily pressured by their employers to comply. They are ordered into the crosshairs of the blockade by owners who are willing to gamble the lives of the crew for a lucrative payday.

The blockade was announced well in advance. CENTCOM has publicly stated that the ship was targeted only “after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from American forces.”

Sure, America could be lying. But the other party is literally a shadow fleet of smugglers employing crew from the Third World as an expendible asset knowing full well the potentially fatal consequences of sailing into the Strait. If it’s A’s word against B, excuse me for siding with the not-smugglers.

At any rate, the price is paid by innocent young men who only hoped to make a decent paycheck and return home to their families. Men who have nothing to do with either the hustle or the war.

[Lelouch @CodeGea78599083]

@SiddharthKG7 https://t.co/PEyO3kycgc

[Amit Schandillia @Schandillia]

[WHY IS TRUMP HITTING INDIAN SHIPS]

So here’s something right off the bat: MT Settebello is technically not an Indian ship but Palauan. Under international maritime laws, a ship’s nationality is its flag. This one carried Palau’s, even though much of its crew was Indian.

Behind the scenes it could be owned by an Indian, who knows. You might ask why, but a bigger why is...what is a commercial ship doing in troubled waters anyway? Who is even insuring them? Without insurance, it’s too much risk for too little to gain.

And the answer is “shadow fleet.”

These are vessels explicitly used to smuggle sanctioned payload, in this case Iranian oil. The people who own and operate them aren’t making some innocent miscalculation about safety, but deliberately attempting to run a military blockade for massive financial gain.

While legitimate, mainstream shipping companies are avoiding Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, the shadow fleet operates by an entirely different set of rules.

First, as we just noted, is obscured ownership. They use complex webs of shell companies and “flags of convenience” like Palau or Guinea-Bissau to hide the true identities of the shi’s owners and charterers. That’s why I said, Settebello is TECHNICALLY Palauan, but behind the scene...you never know.

Second rule pertains to insurance. Mainstream ship insurers, the P&I clubs, would not cover vessels violating sanctions, especially American. But shadow fleets rely on obscure, non-Western insurers to bypass this issue...or depending on how shady they are, can even operate with no legitimate liability coverage at all.

And finally, it’s about the assets, both man and machine. Shadow fleets typically use aging, end-of-life vessels. Settebello is 29 years old. If a ship is seized or disabled, the financial hit to the owners is minimal compared to the profits of a successful run.

Why?

Because the bigger the risk, the lower the competition and bigger the incentives. Pure economics.

Because of the blockade, the premiums paid to transport Iranian oil have shot through the roof. These shadow owners stand to make astronomical profits on a single successful voyage, which makes them highly willing to risk an old ship.

But there’s still a method involved, it’s not all casino betting. To the best of their capability, they still do what it takes to evade detection.

To get past the blockading Navy, these ships don’t broadcast their intentions. They rely on what the industry calls “dark transits.”

This involves turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders so they disappear from public tracking screens. In the current context, shadow fleet ships have been attempting to skirt the rocky, busy coastline of Oman at night, hoping to slip through the alternative corridors undetected.

But all this comes at a human cost.

Ultimately, the people deciding to run the blockade are sitting safely in offices far away, while the crew members, often sourced from countries like India, bear all the physical risk.

While international maritime guidance strongly advises ship masters to refuse orders into the Gulf of Oman without explicit written authorization and clear insurance guarantees, crew members on shadow fleet vessels are often heavily pressured by their employers to comply. They are ordered into the crosshairs of the blockade by owners who are willing to gamble the lives of the crew for a lucrative payday.

The blockade was announced well in advance. CENTCOM has publicly stated that the ship was targeted only “after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from American forces.”

Sure, America could be lying. But the other party is literally a shadow fleet of smugglers employing crew from the Third World as an expendible asset knowing full well the potentially fatal consequences of sailing into the Strait. If it’s A’s word against B, excuse me for siding with the not-smugglers.

At any rate, the price is paid by innocent young men who only hoped to make a decent paycheck and return home to their families. Men who have nothing to do with either the hustle or the war.