#Gold - A DEEP DIVE: TARGETS AND BUY ZONES;
Gold had a massive run up of 209% in just over 2 years peaking in January of this year. We are currently down 23% form that peak (chart 1) and I still expect more downside.
I was talking about the targets I'll share now when we were above $5400 so this is not hindsight and people called me crazy. I could still be wrong but after the sell off on Friday people have been asking me about targets so thought I would share my thoughts;
1) A BIT OF HISTORICAL CONTEXT (chart 2); Gold has had these runs before. In the late 70s it ran up 740% in just over 3 years before correcting 64%. Around 2010 it ran up 173% in 3 years and corrected 45%. So the 23% correction currently is not a big pull back. This also applies to almost any other asset that has a 200% run up. They almost always pull back at least 50%.
2) BUT ITS DIFFERENT NOW: That's what the gold bulls and speculators keep telling me and was the reason I was so wrong at 5400 when I said I was shorting. I have heard 'its different this time' so many times across all markets. And maybe this time it will be. But until I am proven wrong, Ill stick with 'it's not different. Yes, gold is limited supply. Yes fiat is debasing and record speed. Yes, central banks are buying. Yes, I believe you know someone in another country that paid over the odds for physical gold because there was a gold rush. BUT markets are driven on fear and greed. The bull run starts because the fundamentals stack up (and I 100% agree the fundamentals are great - see point 4). But it accelerates and tops because speculation and FOMO believe it can't go down and they buy in levered up and crazy prices.
3) MY TARGETS: So for now, I think we have more downside. We have just broken (not confirmed) below $4380 and next support would be $4098. I feel it has to pierce 4000 to take all the liquidity built up there and just below 4000 there is support at $3915. That is my MINIMUM target and I may buy there for a bounce. Thats the first area I would consider a bottom could form (not my base case for the bottom though).
A 50% retrace which would be normal would be 3700 but there isn't a lot of support between 3900 and my main target at 3400. The zone between 3200-3430 is a MASSIVE area and thats where I would be buying in a big way for the long term as well as short term;
3430 - horizontal support
3345 - point of control of most of the run up (see chart 4)
3250 - 0.618 retrace
So to be clear, I think it is likely this comes down to 3400, but I will consider a bottom is possible from 3900 or lower.
$Gold #metals #trading
I hope this helps. I you read as far as hear, thank you. And please like and share the post if you can. It helps my posts reach a wider audience.
🚨 تحديث الذهب 🚨
على بركة الله
في البوست السابق، كان الذهب عند 4400
قلت إنه يستهدف منطقة 4500 / 4520 اخرج منها بدون تردد
✅ وقع ما قلت بالضبط
📉 الآن الذهب يستهدف 4040
أي ارتدادات حالية لا تهمك — الهدف واضح
⏳ عند الوصول إلى الهدف سيكون لنا تحديث جديد
#الذهب#XAUUSD #تداول #تحليل_في
⚠️ DYOR / NFA
The Gold-to-U.S. Dollar ratio is collapsing, suggesting the Dollar is about to skyrocket
Remember, when the Dollar moves up it does so violently
Often this can signal some type of financial crisis and if we look at Japan the Yen-to-Dollar is 160:1, the limit before intervention
تحديث الذهب
كنت احذر من اننا قريبين من هبوط دموي للدهب حتي سعر 3800$ للاونصة
اتوقع يهبط بشكل ثلاثي حتي هدفه و من هناك نصنع قاع تاريخي جديد نعتمد عليه للسنين القادمة للذهب
لبدأ تعلم التحليل و الانضمام الي دورتي من هنا
https://t.co/lO5ZKxcTS7
#gold
XAU / Gold Analysis (1D) ⚔️
My Gold outlook:
A push toward the 4450–4500 zone could come first. 📈
After that,
a larger correction toward 4000–4100 remains likely. 📉
Watch the levels. The next big move is loading.
GOLD IS DOING EXACTLY WHAT IT DID IN 1979.
Read this before you buy another ounce.
1979: Iran war → oil exploded.
Gold ran $200 → $850.
Then Volcker took the Fed Chair seat.
Rates went to 20%.
Gold collapsed $850 → $300.
Now 2026:
- War with Iran (active)
- Oil up aggressively (done)
- Inflation creeping back (starting)
- New Fed Chair (already in power)
Gold doesn't die when the crisis ends.
It dies when central banks react.
25% of world oil at one chokepoint. Rate hikes back in discussion.
If you've been following me, you already caught my $16K BTC bottom call and $126K top.
The next call is even more important.
Follow me and turn notifications on.
بعض الاخوان مستعجل في الوصول الى 5000 على #الذهب
الامور لا تكون بهذا الشكل هناك اهداف سلبية لم تتحقق بعد ومنها 3800 (تحدثنا عنها من شهر ونص تقريباً)
وبعدها نفكر في 5k و اختراق القمة لهدفنا الاهم 6600 - 7100 بإذن الله
بالنسبة لـ #الفضة ما زال التصحيح قائم وهدفه لم يتحقق (وتكلمت عنه كذلك سابقاً من شهر ونص)
لا نستعجل في تحديد الاهداف على #xau و #xag قبل تحقيق القيعان
#xauusd #xagusd
Attention Traders
NFP was just a warmup
The real move will happen on Wednesday this coming week
Dollar is faking its strength
Unemployment rate was a clean indicator
#Gold hit the upper boundary of its long-term ascending channel and started correction.
$3500-$4000 zone remains the accumulation zone for gold investors.
Big oil CEOs are now coming out saying next stop for oil is $150-$160.
The charts showed us that a long time ago.
And, that is a very important red breakout, for many reasons.
One reason being that it kicked off the 2nd inflationary wave.
Been saying for years that we will see at least $250-$300 oil during this commodities bull market.
And in the linked post below I raised that target to $369.
Oil was at $58.40 in the linked post below. Now at $96.
The linked post nailed the low.
The 4.5 year red bullish falling wedge is probably a halfway pattern, with a price target of $369 (green lines measured move approx route).
Since I called the commodities bear market low almost 6 years ago, I have been saying that this commodities bull market is the best opportunity you will ever have in life to get out of the rat race.
When that 2nd pink head & shoulders pattern broke down just before the Covid-crash, I understood that the huge blue head & shoulders pattern was probably going to play out too. And it very much did.
That is the kind of guidance that makes a difference. Following the right people is absolutely vital. #joinus https://t.co/dZoc2yuE1z #oott #oilprice
Check that breakout above red line; a huge gap up above it, then gapfill, then take off. That is stylish price action. And yes, if going to breakout, why not do it in style.
#Gold continues to trade above its long-term ascending trendline despite pullback from recent highs.
Price remains above the key $4,000 support area, which continues to serve as a major long-term support zone.
A sustained hold above $4,000 would keep the broader bullish structure in place.
🔥"Gold’s mauling of global fiat monies in 2024-2025 was SPECTACULAR.
In the coming years and decades, fiat’s already-horrific performance against gold will get much worse…but there will continue to be modest periods of consolidation like the current one." -Stewart Thomson
https://t.co/BnXPTdZLWq
Gold is sitting right at its 200-day moving average.
Yes, the last time we were here turned out to be a great buying opportunity…. but I try not to get too fixated on technical levels alone.
What stands out to me is how dramatically sentiment has shifted.
Just a few months ago, gold was one of the market’s favorite trades.
Today, it feels almost completely forgotten.
Not to steal from Buffett, but I'm starting to get greedy while others are becoming fearful.
https://t.co/P4sfxoqBM9