CoiledSpringCapital, CMT

Professional trader. Wall Street veteran for 20 yrs in NYC working w/ the largest HF's in the world. Founder CSC Macro Report & Trading-Not Financial Advice

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Sep 7: we favored semis, the Mag 7 and the Nasdaq 100.

Sep 4–25 total return:
$SMH +6.98%
Mag 7 +4.81%
$NDX +3.63%
$SPX +0.38%
Equal-weight S&P −3.25%

Not a lucky guess.
https://t.co/0ErmB2oGdO

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Hedge Funds posted their widest daily drawdown on Thursday since Covid, according to GS.

wow! Lots of pain out there.

$SPY #SPX

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Consumer sentiment has dropped to a 5-month low with consumer expectations for higher prices to rise ~5% yr/yr.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Semis ($SOXX) likely sees their longest consecutive down stretch since last Nov.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

$BE weekly DeMark 9 sell and kerplunk!

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

$NOK Q good and they sell it down 10% after already getting cut in half.

This is where we are. sell everything. shorts are about to get yanked.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

This week's report, free: https://t.co/AgPD4ihoEb

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

$SMH fell ~16% over eight sessions, its longest losing streak since 2008. The Nasdaq 100 just had its worst week since April 2025.

Strong $TSM and $ASML results didn't stop the selling. That tells you something.

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

re: Neoclouds

$NBIS $CRWV

“The main business for the neoclouds is quite good,” he said. “I think these neoclouds will find sources of capital.”

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Blackstone's Gray on the notion that AI is a bubble:

“When you think about a bubble, you think about building capacity and then hoping the demand comes,” Gray said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday after the firm reported its third-quarter results. “With AI, you’re building capacity, and you’re hoping you can keep up with the demand.”
It’s “a very different dynamic” from phenomena such as the 1990s telecom bubble, he said. Gray pointed to an AI consulting firm Blackstone created with Anthropic PBC called Ode.
“We can’t keep up with customer demand,” he said. “Demand is almost parabolic.”

#SPX $SPY $QQQ

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Hedge Fund loading up on shorts per GS

Across global equities, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk says short sales have exceeded long purchases by a ratio of roughly five to one. Short leverage across its book sits in the 99th percentile over the past five years. Net leverage among fundamental long/short funds, a gauge of how much long exposure exceeds shorts, is near a three-year low, despite a rise in gross leverage.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Now they are going after $Meta credit

Treacherous markets where narratives are fueling incresed volatility

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

This week's report, free: https://t.co/XqCYM12dfL

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Since the end of Q2:
S&P 500 +2%
Nasdaq 100 −3.6%
Russell 2000 −10%

A fragmented market with no follow-through. We're trend followers, and we've been raising cash since the rout began.

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

This week's report, free: https://t.co/A1ByxX6Pyj

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Can it always get worse? Goldman's momentum basket: three 20%+ unwinds in four months, all bigger than anything in the prior two years.

That's how hard it's been to be a growth investor.

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

This week's report, free: https://t.co/QmKluGYKmk

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Can it always get worse? Yes. Is a bottom close? Also yes.

Goldman's momentum basket: three 20%+ drawdowns in four months. July's ~45% drop was a record.

Systematic strategies are amplifying the selling.

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

@Shepdog69138782 read my report tomorrow

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

Oil just topped

[CoiledSpringCapital, CMT @coiledspringcap]

@Shepdog69138782 magic