0xuberance

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@MrTinvests watching $QQQ to find an entry for AI infra? $QQQ hardly budged when the AI infra unwind started. better watch $SOXX.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@AndreasSteno Plotting a first derivative (EPS growth, rather than EPS itself) vs price? Would have been much more natural to plot EPS vs share price to make your point.

[Hyungsok Ahn @HyungsokAhn]

Semis surrender all the gains from the previous earnings, sadly. And popular names are under heavy short gamma unfortunately. I saw heavy short volumes in FINRA daily files yesterday, mostly coming from option market makers short delta positions, I believe. Quite scary, getting into Friday's monthly & weekly option maturity.

As I posted before, it's not like some bogus guy who were in a movie once upon a time shorts $MU. Many large funds buy put protection against market crash. Those protective puts become in-the-money, given semi sell-off continued for 2 months. Even, guy like Leopold Achenbrenner has sizable $MU put, while he has overall big long position -- his recent 13F-HR. Same as $SNDK.

Wishful scenarios:

1. Long puts take profit ahead of the expiry tomorrow. Delta will be lifted and technical rally starts. This will happen any time before closing tomorrow, because they don't like uncertainty from MoC auction.

2. Option market makers push the market towards max pain. Currently it's below put walls, so if this happens, those puts will be squeezed. This is fairly unlikely - max pain is far above, unless there's a positive macro news to push market together.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@retail_mourinho Nope, I took theirs...

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

I know everyone is Bullish for July.
but NAAIM at 98.59 goes to show you things are out of control.

For reference:

$SPY - 4%
$QQQ - 5.5%

A sentiment flush before that Bullish move I suspect.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@TradexWhisperer This. Consensus estimates are just small sample means/medians which a huge margin of error. Remove the outliers and you might end up with a significantly different estimate. Imho, sell-off was mechanical/algo driven and exacerbated by massive leverage. Thesis still valid.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@babyfolio I second this. Revenue expectations are just a point estimate, no absolute truth. Due to small sample size, the confidence interval around that point estmate is pretty wide. A sell-off triggered by missing expectations by a rounding error is completely irrational.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@jukan05 https://t.co/Wf2t4k2Ce3

[degentrading @degentradingLSD]

Coatue and Situational Awareness anchoring $SKHY

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@jukan05 Source please.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@pequityresearch Meanwhile
https://t.co/Yykx72wgaI

[Jukan @jukan05]

Bernstein estimates that SK hynix’s DRAM gross margin in Q2 will reach 90.9%…

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@TheBigBerbowski ...and from $005930.KS investors, too!

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@daniel_koss It takes guts to venture into the limelight, with real name and PFP, and real-life performance. Would trust you my money to trade, but autopilot is very US-centric and (for various reasons) impractical for EU users. Would really appreciate a solution with EU users in mind.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@FirstHillcap Another factor apart from ETF flows and institutional buying: The massive 2026 Samsung buyback programs have targeted common shares (mainly for employee compensation). Let's hope for a buyback program aimed at pref shares, as in 2015.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@FirstHillcap Samsung preferreds have a lot of catching up to do. They're trading at 37% discount to the common shares, which is well above the historical range.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@daniel_koss @RJCcapital Don't get caught up in an ego battle, focus on what you do best.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@aleabitoreddit "Frankfurt Bank" is actually Commerzbank.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@alex_hunter20 Sharpe ratio is abysmal and doesnt even make 8bp per dollar traded. Not impressed.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@Eli5defi @0xkyle__ Interested.

[0xuberance @CoinAlphaChad1]

@aradtski @lightconexyz intriguing concept. would love to be part of the beta.