Mister Ser

Investments Trader at Kraken; ex JPM; views my own & sharing public info only

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

Did we front run #Bitcoin seasonality?

At the rate of a 0.9 drop in log returns each cycle, we can expect to see log returns=2.3 at least by the end of this cycle which is about a 10x gain from the start of this year and an implied Bitcoin price of about $300k by the end of 2024

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

In the short-term, feels like vols will continue to grind lower until before Fri where UK data will likely take center stage esp with the unprecedented influence of its economy’s affairs on global markets at the moment

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

So inflation beat slightly and market priced in 75bps for Nov with a higher chance of 1%. Terminal rate now towards 5% for 1q23. Risk assets including crypto was nervous on the news but eventually picked up optimism

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

ETH needs a catalyst.. I think downside vol will climb with BTC in lockstep on macro but topside will explode once liquidity/DeFi comes back so maybe buy wingy calls for 2Q23 now.. aligns well with Fed funds pricing rate cuts + start of crypto cycle seasonality going parabolic up

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

ETH ATM has gone up to 94%! like in the pre-merge days EXCEPT it's doing nothing!! variance prem has widened to over 40+ vols... I know there's a couple of data points coming in but that seems overpriced now and it's an easy sell to me

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

S&P futs are green today despite Asian & European equities down despite Jamie Dimon's comments that it's not surprising to see SPX fall another 20%.

But fear has heightened outside with BoE Gov Bailey warning QE will stop this week which saw stirling back down under 1.1

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

ETH top strats were huge short delta at -4k, short gamma at -3, flattish vega and +7k theta with short & tight strangles similar to BTC but size short riskies in Mar

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

$BTC is being traded like an inverse dollar with downside gamma buying today ahead of the calendar while the VIX curve has gone backwardated

Meanwhile $ETH trades like a long-duration asset seeing ‘cheap’ call buying down the curve in Dec & Mar at historically low vols

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

Of course the variance premium has widened even further to 26% in the weekly. Similarly in ETH the weekly ATM has gone back up to the 70s but vol term structure is more flattish vs BTC which signals that market is more likely pricing macro in

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

Risk-off day with markets closed in US & Japan. China comes back from Golden Week + contraction in services PMI to 49.3 from 55 over weekend which saw Hang Seng sell off 3%. Slight strength in dollar across most pairs. Oil down on after hitting 5w highs on China lockdowns & PMI.

[Mister Ser @coinhardo]

As noted over the weekend, BTC vols looked cheap with the BVOL index at levels preceding violent moves in either direction historically. BTC vols this week has climbed back up to 64% from 51% and vol term structure is now backwardated thru the month!