#Bitcoin - whats next ?
The big Sunday report, all you need to know:
In the Sunday report from last week we spoke about 3 key price manipulations, that perfectly took place as predicted, broke out above EMA50 daily, grabbed liquidity, trapped the bulls and nuked afterwards. We have also speaken about the importance of MA200 weekly and what happens if losing it and where our next support will be. Indeed, its EMA200, the area where some of our long orders where placed. Perfectly bounced twice and formed a double bottom already. So what can be expected next ?
🚩 TA/ LCA/ Psychological Analysis:
As mentioned above, $BTC lost the mother of all supports at MA200, and grabbed a massive amount of liquidity between MA200 weekly and EMA200 daily. We can clearly see how EMA200 acts as new support and EMA50 remains the strong resistance we are facing at $27.100. For that, we need to widen our consolidation range between EMA50 and EMA200 for now. New support is $25.250 and resistance remains EMA50 at $27.100. We have also a strong diagonal resistance that started at mid April and kept hammering down BTC each time it touched it, its visible in the chart.
Market saw a bulltrap above EMA50 daily (Red circle area) and nuked after, indeed the plan played out perfectly and our short printed a good amount of profits. Bulls got trapped above EMA50 and were badly liquidated after the drop. However, something happened and its the loss of MA200 weekly. This indicator usually tells us if Bitcoin is in a bear or a bull market. I have been mentioning tons of times that strong FUD is needed to breakdown below MA200, and what happened ? Clear FUD from SEC, perfectly timed at the range nearby MA200
For that: its clear manipulaiton, a sign that market makers wanted to lose MA200 weekly, especially after exposing them after spotting billions worth of short orders few hours before SEC FUD started. But for what? As mentioned above, MA200 is a stong bull - bear market indicator, losing it will make retails believe that market entered bear market area. Is it what market makers wants us to believe before a new leg up ? Possible. Or are they truly looking for the huge amount of liquidity below ? The only question, why havent they kept the FUD and sell pressure to breakdown below EMA200? Its hard to tell but I think the answer is quite simple: Market makers are awaiting the next FOMC decision this week. Losing EMA200 would fully destroy the BTC structure and retails will start losing hope, for now EMA200 is a good hope for retails to belive "It might bounce from here", is this the reason why MM printed a double bottom right above EMA200 ? All I see is strong manipulation right here, with a huge amount of liquidity below
The coming week is very hot and we will see very important market data such as CPI and FOMC decision. I expect to see a massive drop towards the $330bn liquidation pool towards $24.000 region if FOMC decision is worse than market priced in, and yes. I believe that we will see a rate hike increase this week, while many believe the FED is going to pause. The sell pressure, combined with SEC FUD and the fear of recession might lead to the total collapse of BTC, hunting down the liquidity pool at $24.000 region and at the worst case even lower at $22.000 region. Do not forget that a new wave of FUD can lead to massive amount of liquidations for institutions that are long on several altcoins. Especially when considering the latest BTC.D breakout, combined with all the FUD.
My strategy is simple, currenlty in a long from $25.500 and small amount of short from $27.800, I will stop my long if breaking below EMA200 and keep riding the short if dropping below EMA200. I think once losing EMA200 there is a very strong possibility that market will bleed towards $24.000 region. I also continue to accumulate some specific altcoins that were labelled as securities, specific because its important to watch out for some criteria. I have written a big text about this topic yesterday. Buying $MATIC yesterday proved to be very profitable, already up +15%, remember that these kind of investments are DCA and going to be held till the next bull run. There is no way Iam planing to sell in the next months, but probably after the next bull market that starts in one and half years
Summary:
I believe that market makers are awaiting the FOMC decision to decide where to move next, they will not waste any time and immediately start dumping $BTC in order to grab the liquidity below, if FOMC decision is worse than market expected. At the same time they know that the market is in big fear, volume is at record lows and retails are scared due to SEC FUD. This would be the perfect opportunity to pump the price towards our final target of $37.000 and leave paper hands side lined. The strategy is clear, dont over trade in this level of uncertainty, we are prepared and bought a hell of BTC, ETH and other alts between 16-18k and are ready for a big pump towards $37.000 region (Scenario B) in case it happens, if market makers decide to grab liquidity instead, I will be more than happy to accumulate more at these prices for the absolute long term.
Important days in the week:
Mo: //
Tue: CPI
Wed: PPI + FOMC
Thursday: Retail Sales data
Friday: FED speak
End// thx for reading Telegram: https://t.co/zkdgaR6H3c
#Bitcoin - whats next ?
The big Sunday report, all you need to know:
After predicting the dump from $29.500 and giving $26.000 as TP target and telling you to long at 26k, you can see BTC perfectly bouncing up +4% on our long level from 26k that is also perfectly matching with the MA200 weekly. So whats next ?
Liquidity Analysis:
Bitcoin took all the $300bn worth of liquidity in the region of 26k and kissed MA200 (Weekly) at the same time. This is exactly what I looked for. However, now things will turn interesting.
Do you see the huge liquidation pool right below the mentioned MA200 (Weekly) ? Why shouldnt market maker go for it in the coming days ? Consider that there is not much liquidity anymore in the upside, just a small pool containing $40bn worth of liquidity in the region of $30.100. Its not something a market maker would go for when there is a $250bn liquidity pool right below us to be honest. Its also interesting that EMA200 Daily also perfectly matches with the liquidity pool, exactly as MA200 did recently.
So what makes it difficult for market makers to bring #BTC down below MA200 weekly?
A: MA200 (Weekly) is a key indicator that usually tells us if market is in a bull or bear market. Losing MA200, Bitcoin sentiment will turn Bearish pretty fast. The perfect trap isnt it ? One is clear, in order to get MA200 (Weekly) lost you will need a lot of sell pressure. So we might see strong FUD in the coming days when market makers try to take out the liquidity pool.
Also keep in mind that the region between $22.000 - $23.000 is filled with ($420bn) worth of liquidity, the largest liquidity pool that currently exists. A scary number, all these longs that kept their positions open for months, since the beginning of the year, guessing a new bull run might become stopped out also. Imagine the pain, imagine the squeeze afterwards. Again, the perfect trap isnt it ?
🚩 In terms of liquidity, market is clearly in bearish favor right here. I see no real interest for market makers to aim for higher liquidity. Rather, there is much more to grab in the downside. The perfect trap would be to see bullish patterns such as a fake bull flag, as outcome of a strong consolidation between MA200 and EMA50 in the coming days. This would be the day I might go into shorts. For now, I expect consolidation, and my long from 26k is already printing well.
TA Analysis:
As mentioned in my last analysis few days ago I see BTC in a big consolidation range between $26.000 (MA200) and $27.800 (EMA50) for the next days.
Bitcoin NEEDS to hold above MA200 (Weekly) which is currently at $26.100 to continue its "bullish rallye". Otherwise, once losing it, we can expect to see $24.700 which would bring us perfectly to EMA200 and fully grab the liquidity mentioned above.
As long #Bitcoin📷 respects MA200 you will see it in a consolidation range between $26.100 and $27.800. This is the reason why Iam currently long from 26k region. The decision points will be, if BTC breaking out above EMA50 (Daily) or breaking down below MA200 (Daily). Big news are needed for both sides to make a move either above EMA50 or below MA200
Current trades: I will keep my long from 26k open and 20% of position size from 29.5k short after taking mostly profits at 26k.
Important days in this week:
Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Index
Tuesday: Core Retail Sales
Wednesday: / / / / /
Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Friday: Powell Speaks
End/ thx for reading.
Telegram: https://t.co/zkdgaR6H3c
@ZACFutures Keep up the good work!
Can i know whats the best way to set the TP, some hits all TP, but some only 1-3. Should i put more in the 1/2 or equally divided?
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