Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧

Multiple traumatic brain injuries incl skull fracture, didn't finish hi sch but did BSCS, MS engr'ing, MBA. Paid for myself. My ancestry in flags. Oregon home.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

Per the Oregonian, the survey had a 95% confidence interval of +/- 4 points. That means Kotek's actual measure is likely to be between 42% and 50%, and Drazen's between 40% and 48%. The actual values fall some where in the those ranges. Since these overlap, it's called a statistical tie. The poll is unable to tell us which is winning.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

@JulieChangRE We've supersized everything with massive lifestyle creep.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

The poll "had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters and 4.2 percentage points for likely voters."

That means the poll says
Kotek is in the range "42% to 50%"
Drazen is in the range "40% to 48%"

Based on the limitations of the poll, Drazen could be at 48% and Kotek at 42% - due to the wide error margin. Or Drazen could be at 40% and Kotek at 50%. We can't know, though, due to the survey's limitations.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

The poll "had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters and 4.2 percentage points for likely voters."

That means the poll says
Kotek is in the range "42% to 50%"
Drazen is in the range "40% to 48%"

Based on the limitations of the poll, Drazen could be at 48% and Kotek at 42% - due to the wide error margin. Or Drazen could be at 40% and Kotek at 50%. We can't know, though, due to the survey's limitations.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

I have an application for a Pi but at current prices I gave up on that.

I bought a used 2015 Macbook Pro, Intel i7, quad core, 16 GB RAM, 512 GB SSD, dual GPUs - for $127. Running MacOS Sonoma. Bought a 2015 Macbook Air (1 week ago), Intel i7, 8 GB RAM, 256 GB SSD for $130, running Linux Mint on that.

Pi prices have gotten crazy.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

@BrmnLukas @midwestneil LOL! That too, for sure!

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

My lipids panels were in the normal range for ten years, A1C in normal range. Even had a routine echo cardiogram, told normal results for my age. 9 weeks later I had a heart attack. Cardiologist said she saw nothing in my records that would have suggested this. All they came up with was "must be inflammation".

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

@walls_jason1 Wow. I had an electrician in to work on several projects. Adding the 220 outlet cost an additional $60. We already had a 100 amp subpanel in our garage so added the outlet a short distance from the panel.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

True. Once we pulled over in Vancouver, BC to look at a map (pre-smart phone days) - as we unfolded the map, a local tapped on our window and gave us directions! Another time, near Cranbrook BC, I helped a motorist with a dead battery get a jump start. He then noticed the US license plate on our Honda - turned out he ran the local Honda dealer in town and offered us free service if we needed anything! Just super friendly all the way around.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

We drove a day to see the last public performance of the RCAF Snowbirds CT-114 jets just 2 weeks ago in California. It was a sold out airshow crowd. Nearly everyone stood for "O Canada" and around us, many also sang along. There was no animosity at all, only enthusiasm and excitement for the Snowbirds.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

I follow Canada news - my late father-in-law grew up in Alberta, lots of my wife's relatives live there, and my wife is eligible for Canadian citizenship. I might be a bit biased. Last trip in Canada (last year), we had a blast and everyone - and I mean everyone - was super friendly as always.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

@spackardwork @michaelpatron0 I will check out Nordpass, thank you; that sounds encouraging! But most are just directed to their smartphone via the websites - without sufficient user education to know of good options or pitfalls. This is why it all needs more work yet.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

At the peak in 1965, the "Baby Boom" accounted for about 33% of the total US population. Following generations have each been smaller, as a percent - today, most are 20% or so and the "Boom" is down to perhaps 18%.

What happens to the housing market will depend on whether the "immigration spigot" is "on" or "off".

In the early 1970s, less than 5% of US residents were foreign born. As of 2025, 15.8% were foreign born and that is forecast to rise to 18% by 2040.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

The era of "real estate always appreciates in value" is over.

Half the "Baby boom" generation will be deceased by the mid-2030s. They've got over 10 million homes that will go on the market - that's up to 1+ million per year - over the next decade or so.

Many may be living in older homes, with less amenities, smaller square footage, older designs, that may not appeal to today's lifestyle creep buyers, so there's that too.

Plus the incoming young cohort is smaller than past generations. The housing markets of the past decades are gone, although it might not feel like it for a few more years.

[Erich Hartmann @erichhartmann]

Yes. Housing will be cheaper in 5 years, and here's why:

• Inventory is already at the highest level in over a decade. Existing-home supply hit 4.9 months in August, the highest reading since 2015, and 18 states have now pushed active listings past their pre-2020 baseline.

• Builders are discounting like crazy to compete. They're panicking. They are sitting on a huge backlog of completed, unsold homes and are already cutting prices and offering rate buydowns to move them.

• The boomer sell-off is just getting started, and will only accelerate. ~13.9 million homes held by boomers and the Silent Generation are projected to hit the market over the next decade, a 74% jump in turnover versus the prior decade.

• Rates aren’t “high,” they’re normal-low-ish. The 30-year average has run around 7.5% since records began in 1971. Today’s rate near 7% isn’t a problem, it’s a return to the historical mean after a 15-year anomaly (which caused tons of problems).

• And if rates do fall, it will be counterproductive: a significant rate drop will stabilize or lift prices, not help with "affordability".

• STRs and second homes are coming back into the market, too.

• The “shortage” narrative is industry-sponsored BS, and national data is heavily skewed by a few coastal metros that have unique issues (SF, NYC, Boston, LA).

Overall: supply keeps climbing, rates probably won't change much, and the people telling us otherwise have a direct financial stake in us believing the opposite. At the VERY LEAST we're entering a multi-year period of weaker price appreciation / declines in the majority of regions.

Follow the data, not the PR.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

@toddrjones Mostly a map showing areas with universities, or a national research lab.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

@chris_komatsu @ratlpolicy "Licensed". I'm not licensed but in my career I designed and managed several best selling tech products, got some patents, and wrote some tech books. But never mind, I had nothing to do with any of it since I was not "licensed".

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

@brettglass @BrendanCarrFCC A point I don't get either. The surveillance state is out of control.

[Edward - KF7VY 🇺🇸 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 @coldstreams]

@NormaJTorres Gas costs about 25% less in adjoining state Oregon (just checked using GasBuddy).