Colin Stuckless

Aspiring Stoic
Meat based LLM
INTP fwiw

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

@JohnRiche I've voted Liberal twice in the past 15 years, we are not that different.

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

The Eagles.

[Jonny Mitchell @jonnyrmitch]

The most overrated band of all time?

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

@JohnRiche Come on now... we agree on cribbage, oil & beer. What else is there?

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

Started watching this last night & couldn't turn it off.

https://t.co/98MxueAQg6

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

That's kinda how identity politics works.

I voted Trudeau his first term. Observed the results, switched my vote in subsequent elections.

People who entangle their identity with their vote are never going to recognize failure & change their minds - they'll double down instead.

[Gina Unfiltered | 🇨🇦 @Gina_T1]

I can understand supporting a political party.

What I can’t understand is cheering for failure simply because your team is the one delivering it.

How can people watch things get worse year after year and still defend the very people responsible? That’s the part I’ll never understand.

[L. Wayne Mathison @WayneMathison]

Canada was never prosperous because the Liberal economy worked. It looked alive because Ottawa kept feeding it population growth, debt, public hiring, and asset inflation. Now the IV drip is slowing, and suddenly everyone can see the patient was sick the whole time.

Calling that good news is "boiled-frog economics" with a smug little bow on it.

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

Unwatchable.

[Toronto Bag Head @torontobaghead]

One minute you have Ron “the Snake” MacLean rambling on about his sister’s kid in Oakville marrying a deli owner who used to be an Olympic-level curler, who makes the best pancakes he’s ever had.

The next minute you have Jennifer Botterill campaigning to make face washes a suspendible offense and crying about violent actions performed in an inherently violent sport in which everyone who plays does so by their own volition.

Finally, no Social Justice Night in Canada would be complete without Kelly Hrudey trying to score some leftist points by going on and on about his or a player’s “mental health”.

HNIC was an institution—something Canadians once considered a highlight of their week. It introduced a lot of Americans to Canadian hockey culture from afar. It had a captive audience during the first intermission, when one of the most entertaining figures in NHL history, Don “Grapes” Cherry, would shoot straight from the hip with amazing and insightful hockey analysis that has not since been matched.

Today, that same program stands as a source of embarrassment for the same fans that once made it the institution it was.

The worst part is that it doesn’t have to be this way. HNIC could be resurrected by simply hiring the correct analysts for their audience—a task so easy that a child could do it.
@SportsnetPR

[Jesse Rodgers @jrodgers]

517 US companies. One Canadian founder each.
~$414B raised between them.
88% educated here. 56% now in SF.
We didn't lose the talent war. We never showed up to it.

https://t.co/7nOOZFJztW

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

I agree with Krishna - the winners will be the ones with distribution, in a commodity based AI future. Apple, Google, MS.

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management pressed IBM CEO Arvind Krishna directly on whether AI is a bubble (Save this).

And Krishna responded with what has become known inside financial circles as the $8 trillion math problem.

A single gigawatt of AI data center capacity filled with accelerators, liquid cooling, and power infrastructure costs roughly $60 to $80 billion to build and populate.

The industry has committed to more than 100 gigawatts of buildout globally.

That is $6 to $8 trillion in capital expenditure and because AI grade hardware depreciates on a five-year cycle, that entire sum must be effectively replaced and refreshed every five years.

To service the interest on $8 trillion in capital at a conservative 10% borrowing rate, the AI ecosystem would need to generate approximately $800 billion in annual profit, a number that currently exceeds the combined net income of every large technology company in the world.

Goldman Sachs estimates $7.6 trillion in aggregate AI CapEx between 2026 and 2031 alone, and Reuters Breakingviews has flagged that even if the capital is available, physical bottlenecks power permits, land, cooling infrastructure, and electrical grid connections mean that half of the planned data center projects are being cancelled or delayed before they ever go live.

Krishna also raised a second, structurally distinct concern that markets have largely ignored.

He argued that the largest foundation models, GPT, Gemini, Claude, Llama are converging toward commodity status.

When a product is a commodity, switching costs collapse.

When switching costs collapse, pricing power evaporates and margins compress regardless of how much capital was spent building the capability.

Morningstar's equity research team conducted a review of 132 technology companies in 2026 and found that AI had caused moat rating downgrades across roughly 40 major stocks concentrated in enterprise software, IT services, and SaaS with Adobe, Salesforce, Workday, and ADP among the companies whose competitive moats have materially weakened.

The implication is that the companies spending the most on AI model development may be building an asset that is simultaneously the most expensive to produce and the most difficult to monetize with durable margins.

This bear case is serious but it is also incomplete and that is what makes Krishna's framing so important to understand precisely.

When pressed further, Krishna explicitly said he does not believe there is an AI bubble in the technology itself only in a subset of the infrastructure capital that is being deployed against speculative assumptions rather than proven demand.

He draws the same analogy, the fiber optic overbuild of the late 1990s. Dozens of companies went bankrupt laying cable that nobody was using.

And yet that exact "wasted" infrastructure became the physical backbone of every cloud company, every streaming service, every mobile network, and every modern AI training cluster that followed.

The builders lost, the infrastructure won.

And the companies that were built on top of it, Amazon, Google, Netflix, Salesforce compounded for two decades.

The question, as Krishna framed it, is not whether AI is real.

It is which capital deployment earns a return versus which gets stranded and crucially, whether you own the stranded assets or the companies built on top of them.

On winners, Krishna was direct that distribution is the moat on the consumer side, and enterprise is wide open.

The data supports this, Meta with 3.3 billion daily active users across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp is building AI into a distribution network that no startup can replicate at any cost.

Meanwhile, the productivity evidence arriving in real time is beginning to challenge the bear case's revenue projections.

Jensen Huang just showed on stage at Computex that GitHub commits, the universal measure of global software output nearly tripled in the first months of 2026, effectively converting $3 trillion in developer salaries into $9 trillion in productive output.

That is measurable, real time economic value already flowing through the system and it feeds directly back into token demand in a compounding loop that Krishna's static CapEx math does not fully capture.

[Konstantin Kisin @KonstantinKisin]

There is something darkly amusing about the fact that selling victimhood to the most privileged people in history has become such a lucrative and big business.

When I was on tour with @jordanbpeterson he talked about many things, but probably the most common recurring theme was the "Spirit of Cain". It seems our ancient and sacred texts tell these stories for a reason: victimhood is easy, seductive and addictive. And now profitable too.

We are living through a perpetual victimhood escalation battle where people (and groups) now compete not on merit, but on the supposed disadvantages they face. Which makes perfect sense since this is the incentive structure our societies have been encouraged and forced to adopt.

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

Just when we get the NL water bomber fleet back up to a decent level...

https://t.co/ujKNmFRtHq

How's this happen in June with no heads up for a smooth transition so close to the start of summer?

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

@burnsieoriginal The 2006 Canes who ran Roloson for the Cup.

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

@CJPDoyle Expand the list to the top 50 economies in the world & Canada ranks 47 out of 50.

Ahead of only Russia, France & Iran.

This isn't shocking? People aren't concerned?

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

@CJPDoyle The number itself is less concerning than the comparison to our G7 peers.

Only France is doing more poorly.

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

@CJPDoyle Canada GDP Growth:
2025 Q4 -0.6%
2026 Q1 -0.1%

USA GDP Growth:
2025 Q4 +0.5%
2026 Q1 +1.6%

Call it what it is - losing.

[Jesse Rodgers @jrodgers]

@tokifyi and environmental policy no one else is doing... companies are global, they go somewhere else where its easier to operate.

[toki @tokifyi]

This is what happens when the economy is built around banks, not tech

[Jesse Rodgers @jrodgers]

It is extremely hard to build Canada with these policies in place.

[Colin Stuckless @ColinStuckless]

Arms up in the fencing response, indicating loss of consciousness. Severe concussion for Bouchard.

[World Hockey Report @worldhockeyrpt]

Evan Bouchard just got knocked out cold by Ryan Lindgren at the World Championships against USA.

[The Food Professor @FoodProfessor]

Steven Guilbeault is leaving federal politics, and not a moment too soon.

He may go down as one of the ministers who most aggressively weaponized science, funding questionable research groups like the Canadian Climate Institute and other pet projects to reinforce a single “climate crisis” narrative.

Anyone claiming Guilbeault truly believed in science is fooling themselves. He treated science like a buffet — picking only what supported his agenda. That’s not science.

He even misquoted me in the House of Commons, attributing claims to me that I have never said or published. That alone tells you everything you need to know about how evidence and dissent were handled under his watch.

Good riddance.