@82_Streetcar In contrast to Gen-X and the others at the same age range (38-40), which includes 15 years of voting data as the whole cohort moves through that age range.
@82_Streetcar The paywall didn't apply to me FSR (?), but the article unfortunately doesn't describe that plot in any more detail, so I'm not quite sure I understand it. The Millennial curve at ages 38-40 is just elections from 2018 onwards, and only the oldest millennials, I guess?
@uckema Be careful with gain factors, particularly for ICF experiments where the input power is the laser output rather than the energy required to (very inefficiently) pump the lasers: https://t.co/YM8dOvILr5
@ryan_hassett BUT, he talked with a lot of confidence and arrogance (i.e. Nate being Nate), and, 538 doesn’t calibrate their political models very well (unlike their sports models, the political ones are too timid), so one could reasonably say it was a mildly unusual miss for him.
@ryan_hassett I will die on the hill that Nate predicted Republicans would win but they didn’t, so he was wrong, full stop. Now, was he confidently wrong? Well accordingly to his probability estimate, he was very uncertain about the result, so no.
@nilocobau@subtlerfuge@vanillaopinions Yeah Atlanta is fine to walk in the summer (it’s not Florida). It’s no worse than LA/Chicago/NJ/Philly in July-August it’s just that it spreads to June and September as well. And our walkability is definitely sunbelt and not Northeast.
@matthematician Although, actually, even the statement that there exist a cone and sphere whose volumes sum to the volume of any cylinder is non-obvious if working with rational (or even algebraic) numbers.
@nilocobau Well, we were talking about this earlier with Stanford I think, but this is where it would be good to distinguish social year with actual degree year, since he should have basically finished in 1995.
@newdougman Personally I actually like the idea of “be polite”, I think it’s terminally online to try to curate a particular flavor of impolite behavior that’s not technically harassment or discrimination. The dunks aren’t the best part of Twitter!
@newdougman Twitter has rules against threatening or harassing people on the basis of their sex, but we’ve both seen Tweets that, while not violent or harassing, would absolutely be considered sexism and I suppose banned on https://t.co/IN14655PRH? But IDK how things are actually enforced.
@newdougman Not defending the choice, but still curious who you would pick? Like if it’s me I’m not picking anyone from NY given the dysfunction there, but OTOH, I’m not picking someone who poisons the coalition brand in swing districts and prevents a re-take in 2024.
For the railfans in my feed, I’m departing on a Coast Starlight sleeper car trip with my wife and kids, I’ll probably be live-tooting over on Masto: @[email protected]
@82_Streetcar What I’m saying is that they, on top of that, force difficult decisions, related to e.g. law enforcement and education in higher poverty areas, onto local governments, who have some meaningful authority on those matters, but that’s basically a trap.
@82_Streetcar Self-government doesn’t guarantee this though. Want to allow abortions? Too bad, the state says you can’t. Want to not allow guns? Also too bad, the state says you have to.
@82_Streetcar Honestly would it be so bad if they did? Local self-government is complicated by a lot of issues. The superior government can limit budgets or apply other arbitrary rules. There are negative-sum local competitions. Local elections are lower information and allow more corruption.