CommandEleven Intelligence®

Real-time intel on terrorism & geopolitics. We see it first. | Counter-Terror · Intel · Geopolitics · Cognitive Warfare |

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Counter-Messaging: What Works, What Doesn’t and What Remains Unproven - Part 4

Hundreds of counter-extremism campaigns; very few evaluated for actual behavioral impact. The best-tested, the Redirect Method, shows modest effects. Alternative identity beats rebuttal, probably.

https://t.co/BhvT2vPdDq

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Information Warfare and Radicalization in the AI Era

Extremists don't need training camps anymore. They need a story, a community that rewards it, and a feed that repeats it. AI made the story nearly free.

A @commandeleven new four-part series on information warfare and radicalization, honest about what's unproven. This is a carry on from the original projections and assessments from the 2026 Global Counter-Terrorism Assessment.

@SurvivalReport

https://t.co/rtTfVR3Bwo

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Digital Recruitment Ecosystems and Algorithmic Amplification - Part 3

Extremist groups don't need to beat a platform's content policy. They only need adjacent content to perform well enough that the ranking system does the repetition for them.

https://t.co/28LJGvQggx

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

On Oct 6, the Moscow Format on Afghanistan ended without a joint statement for the first time since 2017. Within a week, Pakistan and the Taliban were fighting on the border.

The Afghan Fracture: what broke, and who is really involved.

https://t.co/iQhY8C7oXp

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

The new Soft Targets America episode on @SurvivalReport.

Live

https://t.co/08Kz95v3kf

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

France’s next protest wave starts Saturday: “Acte II,” 212 mobilizations, under curfews.

A viral claim says 101 groups are behind it. We sorted the list: organizers, youth groups, US amplifiers and mainstream unions. No trail of foreign money yet.

https://t.co/X11pRnXNmd

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

In November 2023, we made ten calls on the threat from Afghan soil. Three years on, we scored them all.

6 confirmed, including the TTP haven and Pakistan’s airstrikes. 3 wrong, including rising ISKP attacks inside Afghanistan. 1 open.

Misses included:

https://t.co/maljxhEBXO

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

2026 Global Counter-Terrorism Assessment Hub

Everything built on our April 2026 Global Counter-Terrorism Assessment, now in one place: the frameworks, nine update dossiers, eight regional baselines, and the audit that scores the GCTA's own forecasts.

The first two are live - we'll be adding as we complete the complete assessment.

https://t.co/0ToLuHZjLG

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Australia and the Pacific: Australia's winter crop is forecast down 21%, and Pacific islands have declared fuel emergencies.

https://t.co/5nzl7YJauW

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Indian Subcontinent: India's weakest monsoon since 2015, and Pakistan's flour is up 32.6% in a year.

https://t.co/6KKo5Ekb9U

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

East and Southeast Asia: El Niño could cut the region's rice crop by as much as Thailand exports in a year.

https://t.co/z1K7DzJG0z

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Africa: Sudan is the world's worst food crisis, and El Niño hits the continent in three waves into 2028.

https://t.co/h8VcxODNq4

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Middle East: the Gulf's food comes through two chokepoints, and both are war zones.

https://t.co/TEWc1mpqhz

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Europe: shoppers barely feel it yet, but farmers face fertilizer up 13% while crop prices fall. Watch the 2027 harvest.

https://t.co/KxPJc9TTWT

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Central America and Caribbean: El Niño has already wiped out Dry Corridor harvests, and Haiti has 5.8M in acute hunger.

https://t.co/Q8wuEH0ofl

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

South America: about 40% of Brazil's fertilizer imports pass through Hormuz, and the world needs its soy more than ever.

https://t.co/PyqMenPivx

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

North America: Mexico now imports more corn than it grows, 99% of it from the US.

https://t.co/9o0EjO85Kw

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Global Food Security - A new @commandeleven series (thread):
Four shocks are hitting the world's food system at once: a record El Niño, the Hormuz fertilizer cutoff, a diesel shortage the IEA says lasts into 2027, and a closed Black Sea. 🧵

We rated 10 regions against all four. Africa is the only one exposed to every driver at a high level.

The finding that runs through every region: governments are reacting, almost none are planning. The worst is still ahead, in 2027.

The Global Food Security Crisis, region by region.

https://t.co/vOFPlLnwgo