CommandEleven Intelligence®

Real-time intel on terrorism & geopolitics. We see it first. | Counter-Terror · Intel · Geopolitics · Cognitive Warfare |

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

The 2012 clip of Ami Ayalon, former Shin Bet, has resurfaced, in which he explains the necessity of manufacturing a Sunni-Shia war as the primary regional conflict that will pave the way for Israel to fight Iran.

Makes Netanyahu's Diamond vs Hexagon more interesting.

@SurvivalReport

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

On Oct 18, nine days before Israel votes, Netanyahu presented a security doctrine with a map dividing the region into three blocs: a Sunni Diamond, an Israel-UAE Hexagon and Iran's Axis. 🧵

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

We've registered four dated calls on Egypt, the UK, Syria and Türkiye, to be scored on our Foresight Record.

The Coalition Forms, Part 5 of The Makkah Pact:

https://t.co/FvJMuxcGDX

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Three weeks ago we said Saudi Arabia is strong in the air and weak on the ground. Its new coalition is closing the first gap much faster than the second. 🧵

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Syria is the only possible ground contribution. Axios reported Riyadh asked Damascus for 10,000–20,000 troops. Damascus denies any deployment, and the claim that 1,500 are already there rests on one Lebanese outlet.

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Never open your mouth and remove all doubt that you're an idiot has, obviously, not been taught Abdul El-Sayed who believes that the:

- Second Amendment only protects your right to own a musket...

- First Amendment only protects handwritten letters

- Fourth Amendment doesn’t apply to your smartphone because there were no iPhones in the 18th century.

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

In April, Israel exposed Unit 4000, the IRGC's covert attack arm. In October, reporting said the Quds Force renamed its assassination unit, Unit 840, as Unit 600 and gave it a new commander.

A renamed unit is not a smaller one.

@SurvivalReport

https://t.co/ZdMD88HZyo

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Counter-Messaging: What Works, What Doesn’t and What Remains Unproven - Part 4

Hundreds of counter-extremism campaigns; very few evaluated for actual behavioral impact. The best-tested, the Redirect Method, shows modest effects. Alternative identity beats rebuttal, probably.

https://t.co/BhvT2vPdDq

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Information Warfare and Radicalization in the AI Era

Extremists don't need training camps anymore. They need a story, a community that rewards it, and a feed that repeats it. AI made the story nearly free.

A @commandeleven new four-part series on information warfare and radicalization, honest about what's unproven. This is a carry on from the original projections and assessments from the 2026 Global Counter-Terrorism Assessment.

@SurvivalReport

https://t.co/rtTfVR3Bwo

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Digital Recruitment Ecosystems and Algorithmic Amplification - Part 3

Extremist groups don't need to beat a platform's content policy. They only need adjacent content to perform well enough that the ranking system does the repetition for them.

https://t.co/28LJGvQggx

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

On Oct 6, the Moscow Format on Afghanistan ended without a joint statement for the first time since 2017. Within a week, Pakistan and the Taliban were fighting on the border.

The Afghan Fracture: what broke, and who is really involved.

https://t.co/iQhY8C7oXp

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

The new Soft Targets America episode on @SurvivalReport.

Live

https://t.co/08Kz95v3kf

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

France’s next protest wave starts Saturday: “Acte II,” 212 mobilizations, under curfews.

A viral claim says 101 groups are behind it. We sorted the list: organizers, youth groups, US amplifiers and mainstream unions. No trail of foreign money yet.

https://t.co/X11pRnXNmd

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

In November 2023, we made ten calls on the threat from Afghan soil. Three years on, we scored them all.

6 confirmed, including the TTP haven and Pakistan’s airstrikes. 3 wrong, including rising ISKP attacks inside Afghanistan. 1 open.

Misses included:

https://t.co/maljxhEBXO

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

2026 Global Counter-Terrorism Assessment Hub

Everything built on our April 2026 Global Counter-Terrorism Assessment, now in one place: the frameworks, nine update dossiers, eight regional baselines, and the audit that scores the GCTA's own forecasts.

The first two are live - we'll be adding as we complete the complete assessment.

https://t.co/0ToLuHZjLG

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Australia and the Pacific: Australia's winter crop is forecast down 21%, and Pacific islands have declared fuel emergencies.

https://t.co/5nzl7YJauW

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

Indian Subcontinent: India's weakest monsoon since 2015, and Pakistan's flour is up 32.6% in a year.

https://t.co/6KKo5Ekb9U

[CommandEleven Intelligence® @commandeleven]

East and Southeast Asia: El Niño could cut the region's rice crop by as much as Thailand exports in a year.

https://t.co/z1K7DzJG0z