Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com

Dad, So-So Fly Fisherman, Commodity Broker, and Author. There’s risk of loss in futures trading. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors.

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

Hi all,

Jerry’s daughter here. Dad unexpectedly passed on Monday. We are in total shock, he was our world.

He was so grateful to share what he loves with this community. Thank you for the support over the years.

Yesterday we saw 3 moose together….you know what that means….❤️

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

To leave a memory about Dad and for service info, please visit the below link ❤️

https://t.co/EwrDPplc3K

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

@BohlingMatt Smart like a fox!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

Higher rates are bearish commodities. The 3rd Qtr that just ended had the sharpest rise with rates since 1987, 36 years ago. One market suffering greatly are grains. But I would not sell grains down here, “in the hole!” I would not be short!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

When a calf & cow moose do this it usually suggests…

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

The main fundamental reason most all markets from grains to copper have done so poorly the past few months this: T-bonds in the 3rd Qtr. that ended Friday had the sharpest rise with interest rates since 1987. Higher rates is bearish as we all know so well.

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

@simomar48195478 @MarketMinuteLLC I believe wheat is underrated & could rise above $7 in late winter!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

Across the board yesterday only copper & oj were higher. Bonds were higher but hit a 14 year low the day before. Grains collapsed but my soybean yield projection of 48.5 bu/acre for the upcoming WASDE report remains likely & if accurate; is damn bullish!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

@MarketMinuteLLC @simomar48195478 That is very true but fortunately all members of the House & Senate continue to be paid.

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

This mornings USDA report was a bearish surprise & grain prices are sharply lower toy chagrin. Note too, sharply lower prices are also seen with livestock, gold, silver & most tropical markets. Ugh!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

Again: history shows stocks follow the lead of bonds. Right now, bond prices just fell to 112.13, the lowest since Oct. 2008, yes 2008. The Dow back then was under 9300 vs right now 33,781.
But does history always repeat itself?
Time will tell!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

@BullPfantz It may be as simple as a nutty squirrel being possessive & nutty!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

Based on recent soybean yield results my estimate for the upcoming WASDE report is 48.5 bu/ acre. The last USDA estimate was 50.1 & mine was 50.0. If my new estimate is accurate soybean prices will rise to $15 a bushel PDQ. And I do mean PDQ!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

@freddybean34 pretty damn quick!!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

With 10 year Treasury yield hitting 16 year high today I am reminded that: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” By John Maynard Keynes.
My advice: Use a stop! Or, watch for moose signals!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

Oh, oh! In the past when moose calf runs to its mother, a cow moose it oftentimes means you know what. Not always but oftentimes!

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

@kbcapital1 He also said:” “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

When reading my opinions on here keep in mind my 2 top rules: #1; No one knows for sure. Not for sure they don’t. And # 2: “Always use a stop.”

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

@davidwidmar

[Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com @commodityinsite]

This morning bond futures are down to levels last seen in March, 2010, 13 years ago. That means interest rates r soaring higher & that is bearish most all markets. However, the grain complex is showing independent strength in early dealings which is bullish!