Commodity Wx Group

Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

@AdamFurey4 Yeah, seems to support staying at or above these levels into Nov-Dec, as noted by actual CFS forecast.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Central Tropical Pacific SSTs (NINO 3.4) keep peaking and peaking and peaking again.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Medium-range models reaching toward middle November with powerful northeast Pacific trough and stretched PNA ridge preventing cold air access to Canada and U.S.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Incredible warmth continues in NINO 1+2 for this record-breaking, east-based El Niño.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Powerful Pacific jet stream offsets/outweighs any immediate influences from next week's Sudden Stratospheric Warming expectation (thanks to super Niño).

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Models have been advertising weaker warmth or cooler variability in 11-15 day, but have struggled to advance that into more skillful 6-10 day, with warmer changes for Midwest, East, and South.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Parana to SE Minas Gerais corn/soy/sugar/wheat likely remain the focus for surplus moisture through early November. https://t.co/Yajkv5e20a

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

IA remains 20% behind normal on corn harvest; KS wheat seeding advanced notably in this week's USDA crop progress report. https://t.co/2m2WoYYtXS

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

@MikeTFox5 If this had been a Modoki El Niño like 2009...yikes! But this strongest-of-all-time , super east-based event will make it difficult to break through.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

@Wxdude518 This SSW event is impacting Europe (they go colder than normal next week).

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Unlike last year at this time, Euro weeklies keep Pacific split flow going into early December, keeping Canada very warm, and probably not warm enough for Lower 48. Powerful El Niño influences seen to continue.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

@Stratton2026 Getting a decent STJ currently.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Super El Niño, with a dash of strong -PDO, is deflecting stratospheric warming influences for North America. Strong Pacific jet stream flow undercuts blocking efforts in the North Pacific.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Earliest SSW in recorded history is forecast next week, with near real-time impacts for colder European trends, as Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations veer negative.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Massive medium-range modeling demand losses this past weekend, as November kicks off momentum to potentially be warmest on record.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

@Snowlover111232 @AdamFurey4 Correct- the common warmer areas (Central to East) with -PDO are higher population centers for more bearish U.S. energy demand. Many of our warmest winters (including 23-24 and priors like 11-12 were -PDO). Combined with climate trends, it helps with the warm winter narrative.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Watching unusually early first-of-season stratospheric warming in Northern Hemisphere. But this year's super El Niño could significantly outweigh anything else, such as this factor.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

AI ensemble clusters show more support for continued warm to very warm pattern deep into 1st week of November for Midwest, East. and South.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Another late 11-15 day pattern battle between traditional (NWP) models, including the European, and the AI models. Pacific pattern looks warmer/bearish with troughing into the West Coast.

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

@AntoineLiagre1 @AdamFurey4 Yeah in recent years, the warm pool has been so strong in the North Central Pacific that it drives the PDO index very negative w/o the classic "blue horseshoe" in the east.