Pete

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@gordonschuecker @calvinfroedge @grok Why should they be worth any more than today? They (might) earn $5billion in the next 5 years, and they have the same amount in debt to pay off. They need billions in capex to sustain reserves that otherwise would deplete in 7/8 years. Who cares if this years FCF yield is 40%?

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@calvinfroedge @grok At $80 Brent… just a small caveat

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@zerohedge Google is the one that can and will blow it up by dropping prices for Gemini aggressively.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@DarioCpx The US oil industry can quite easily re-route a fraction of daily supply for a week or so to keep Cushing from falling below operational floors. This hyper analysis on Cushing is misguided fear mongering.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@puppyeh1 ‘’The quickest way to lose half your money is to buy a cyclical at a low PE after a couple years of record earnings.’’ Peter Lynch

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@GDoc2001 @Unlucky_Dude2 @rickjeff78 🎯

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@GeorgeGammon 10 yr reached 3.9 pre Iran war. The war ended and that inflationary pressure is easing - All the hiking narrative is nonsense. However Warsh will know that keeping the front end high will pressure the long end which is what Bessent/trump wants for housing. 10yr to 3.5.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@Rory_Johnston + SPR still running. Now wait for the market share war.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@UnintendedCons5 @FoftyPawlow Treasury can’t obscure their positions to look like hedge fund flows? I’m sure they can.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@mikebolen @zerohedge Huh? 80% of the market are below 6%. The vast majority of the market are below 5%. And the largest cohort are still below 4%. Rates need to go meaningfully below 5 before you see people start moving en-masse. And we’re stuck above 6%. But there’s no rate lock-in?

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@Symmetry_Invest @dantelriv @Symmetry_Invest Do you think this deal closes? Would much prefer the 5 year thesis to play out in the public markets with the buyback on.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@aerokinetic Exactly. Which is why the notion of making the preferred convertible and then diluting common shareholders who’ve held stock in a solvent company for 15-20 years would be completely insane.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@ces921 @NoelSmith One cheeky 25bps hike to send the 10 year below 4

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@SantiagoAuFund The question is then how will you make money from it? ‘Predicting rain doesn’t count, building an arc does.’ WB.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@Invesquotes Incorrect. The cash that eventually accrues to you from your respective (& increased) share in that enterprise will determine the ultimate value those buybacks created over time. That’s the real world. You just hope to sell it on to someone before that, at a higher price. Let’s!

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@Invesquotes You literally just asked what if it stays flat forever, and I answered what would happen. You’d be a majority owner of a private business that doesn’t trade. That’s factual. You’re just focusing on the performance of the interim share price.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@Invesquotes Your entire post by definition was about the effect on the stock price via buybacks. Again, your definition of value (‘that generate no value whatsoever’) is based on what the stock price does? You’re contradicting yourself left right and centre.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@Invesquotes B) Berkshire receives a much larger share of coke’s present day dividends because of share repurchases done many decades ago. You don’t see buffet writing letters about the share price increasing at X rate because of the buybacks.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@Invesquotes A) You’re fundamentally missing the point that share repurchases (by design) are merely meant to provide you with a larger shareholding (tax free), in lieu of cash. Your whole argument on whether the share price increases as a result is bizarre.

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@CompoundRich Yes your shareholding increases but then you assume there’s a massive dividend payment at the end that goes entirely to you which rarely happens

[Pete @CompoundRich]

@Invesquotes Because your shareholding would increase? In your example if the stock remained flat ‘forever’ you’d end up owning the majority of business alongside others who didn’t sell, and would receive dividends as the float is fully retired. I don’t think you understand buybacks, buddy.