Just published the 4th edition of On The Radar, featuring…
1. A Swiss industrial with a leading position in a key product in the data center buildout
2. A cybersecurity company with defensible competitive advantages (and that has positive GAAP earnings!)
3. A rather special serial acquirer (you probably don’t expect it) with a great track record and in a defensible industry
Hope you enjoy it!
One of the companies featured in tomorrow’s “On The Radar” has grown its operating profit at a 36% CAGR since 2017 and you would never guess what industry it operates in
I read on a stock forum today that a 30–50% potential upside over 12–24 months is "utterly boring" compared to AI stocks jumping 150% in a few weeks. It’s incredibly telling of where we are in the market cycle right now, and how eager investors are to gamble.
1/ 🇨🇭 Imagine owning a legal monopoly in one of the richest countries in the world. And no, it’s not Meta.
It’s Swiss Marketplace Group (SWX:SMG).
Born "overnight" in 2021, this company has quietly consolidated Switzerland's digital economy.
Here is the breakdown of a wild "winner-take-all" story 👇
Stevanato $STVN participated yesterday in one of the most "bullish" conferences I remember in terms of optimism and forward-looking commentary.
Some highlights:
- BDS is expected to grow DDs in the foreseeable future and engineering is expected to return to HSD growth with a 20-22% gross margin (both things are consistent with my model)
- Franco wants to double the company every 5-6 years, he believes it's realistic (I also do). At a constant multiple, this results in around a 12-15% CAGR, but the multiple maybe should be higher considering the business and its resilience.
- Management confirmed that HVS margins are between 40-70%, which is pretty good. I'd imagine that the margin mix within HVS should move higher as molecules become more complex. For context, 2025 BDS gross margin was 31.5%
- They described the remaining opportunity in GLP-1s: "GLP-1 today is at the beginning of the journey. Today, the penetration is between 6-8% worldwide." I wouldn't assume penetration should be 100%, but there's definitely significant runway left
All in all, great news!
Stevanato $STVN participated yesterday in one of the most "bullish" conferences I remember in terms of optimism and forward-looking commentary.
Some highlights:
- BDS is expected to grow DDs in the foreseeable future and engineering is expected to return to HSD growth with a 20-22% gross margin (both things are consistent with my model)
- Franco wants to double the company every 5-6 years, he believes it's realistic (I also do). At a constant multiple, this results in around a 12-15% CAGR, but the multiple maybe should be higher considering the business and its resilience.
- Management confirmed that HVS margins are between 40-70%, which is pretty good. I'd imagine that the margin mix within HVS should move higher as molecules become more complex. For context, 2025 BDS gross margin was 31.5%
- They described the remaining opportunity in GLP-1s: "GLP-1 today is at the beginning of the journey. Today, the penetration is between 6-8% worldwide." I wouldn't assume penetration should be 100%, but there's definitely significant runway left
All in all, great news!
@SharpSignalAI Yeah so if capabilities come closer together for most cases then apps definitely lose leverage no? If my case is not the most advanced they’ll likely be plenty of tools to carry it out, not talking here about the edge, most-advanced edge cases
In his most recent Keynote, Jensen Huang said the following about RTX Spark (the new chip for Windows) and $ADBE:
"It's also designed agent-friendly, with its MCP server, it can now interact with agents on your laptop."
This made me think. If agents live within the hardware/infrastructure and can freely interact with software applications to get things done, doesn't the distribution leverage accrue to hardware manufacturers and $NVDA instead of software companies?
I mean, you ask the agent that sits on your laptop to conduct a task, but you don't necessarily ask it to use a given app. The agent simply chooses what's available to get to the desired output.
Might have this upside down, so thoughts welcome
Bergman & Beving is an incredible case of shareholder value creation. The company has spun out two businesses that have provided spectacular returns:
- Indutrade: 19% CAGR, +3,500%
- Addtech: 22% CAGR, +7,400%
Momentum Group is the "newest" one, spun out from Alligo AB in 2022.
Will it keep up with its sisters?
As some people correctly pointed out, it’s Lagercrantz, not indutrade, so..
- Lagercrantz, +13,000% since inception, without counting dividends etc
Result is vene better
You can't simultaneously think that...
1. Google is overvalued/bubble
2. Issuing shares is a bad idea at current prices
Some people seem to hold both views which is amazing
$GOOG